Carlo Azzarri, Melanie Bacou, Ali Bittinger, Zhe Guo,

1. Sustainable intensification of crop-livestock systems to improve food security and farm income diversification in the Ethiopian highlands ILRI-Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 30 Jan - 2 Feb2012 Sustainable Intensification of Farming Systems: M&E Goals, Implementation Strategy, and Data & Analysis Platform Carlo Azzarri, Melanie Bacou, Ali Bittinger, Zhe Guo, Dave Hodson, Jawoo Koo, An Notenbaert, RiaTenorio, Pierre Sibiry Traore, Stanley Wood

2. M&E Guiding Principles • FtF Compliance:Conform to the FtF (& GoE?) core indicators • Multi-scale, Multi-site reporting: Meet broad stakeholder needs and support multi-scale/multi-site M&E through; • Action-site, sub-system and system reporting • Country reports:Breakout of site reports to serve national stakeholder needs • Regional Site-reports: for each of the three regional SI program sites • SSA-reports: cross-system reporting and SI-wide “roll-up” of indicators across: Sudano-Sahelianzone, Ethiopian Highlands, Eastern and Southern Africa • Monitoring & projection:Provide monitoring reports andshort-term projections (targets) of key M&E indicators for intervention sites in project “Zone of Influence”, updated annually • Scaling indicators up and out (spatial & temporal): Using a range of biophysical, bio-economic , market and welfare models to undertake ex ante analysis of output, outcome, and impact indicators. (Keywords: extrapolation, aggregation, trade-offs, spillover potential, sustainability, welfare and environmental goals) • Open-access data and analysis platform: Maintain a transparent, open-access M&E data management and analysis platform to serve the needs of SI stakeholders

3. FtFUSAID “Required” Indicators

4. FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” Indicators

5. FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” Indicators

6. FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” Indicators

7. FtF USAID “Required if Applicable” Indicators

8. SI Monitoring and Reporting Levels & Spillovers Eastern & Southern Africa Maize-based Systems Sudano-Sahelian Zone + + + Ethiopian Highlands + Fostering Spillover by Design Action Sites + Implementation sites to local sub-systems Implementation to non-implementation sub-systems Sub-systems to (sub-) systems Systems to systems Sites to sites Sub- Systems + Systems

9. Targeting, Priorities, Hypotheses & Sites Source: Dixon el al. 2001

10. Targeting, Priorities, Hypotheses & Sites Source: Zhe Guo (HarvestChoice 2011)

11. Targeting, Priorities, Hypotheses & Sites Source: Ethiopian Highlands SI Concept Note 2012

12. West Africa: Conceptual Framework for Site Selection, Technology Screening and Deployment Sub-system Resource Potential (Land, Rainfall) Upper West Region Bougouni + NEXT Spatial analysis to provide geographic definition and characterization of such “representative” sub-systems domains Upper East Region Koutiala + Sub-system Anthropization (Market Access, Population Density) Site/HH Specific Attributes (Topography, Endowment)Household Typologies

13. HH Crop Enterprise Diversification Note: to be included in each farming system, the minimum land size of each crop is .02 ha

14. Intensification of Wheat Production (HH Scale Characterization)

15. Intensification Metrics: SI index • Normalized index with weights based on the first principal component, the linear combination capturing the greatest variation among the set of variables: -input index* (imp. seed, org & inorgfert, pesticide, extension…) -land size -head’s education -[crop] farm land -[crop] production share -[crop] farm land share -[crop] yield

16. Mean Yield (kg/ha) 4000 2. Yield responses to fertilizer 1. Agro-climatic suitability Variety: Digelu Variety: Veery No Fertilizer No fert. Kenya Ethiopia 100% Rec. Fert. Recommended Fertilizer Rate No fert. 100% Rec. Fert. RAINFED WHEAT Transport cost: Port to Farm-gate Wheat farming enterprise data Yield Yield 3. Modeling of farm-gate prices 4. Profitability analysis Transport cost: Capital to Farm-gate International wheat and fertilizer prices Profitability Sensitivity Analysis Tool (Excel) Net Economic Return and Potential Production Source: CIMMYT – HarvestChoice “Wheat Potential for Africa “ (2011)

17. Some Key M&E Activities • Stratification of farming systems: Relies on the fusion of spatially-explicit agricultural production, environmental, and farm/household data, and hypotheses on SI evolution and impact pathways (linked to site selection & sampling design) • Map planned interventions into indicators: • Design & Conduct of Surveys: To provide periodic, robust estimates of agreed indicators for target populations in PZoI (and satisfy other analytical data needs) • Maintaining a Technology/Intervention Inventory: A characterized inventory of the farming system components whose integration, adoption and impact is being evaluated. Includes characterization of spillover potential. • Establishing a Linked System of Models: To support M&E reporting cycle(up/out-scaling and projections with and w/o SI interventions), of output, outcome and impact indicators • Attribution assessment: Beyond monitoring and modeling change in indicators is the need (with additional information/assumptions) to attribute changes to the extent required by donors (ex post studies?)

18. M&E Implementation Strategy (to date) • Establish Core FtF Monitoring Obligations: Primarily with USAID Washington (e.g., agree required core indicators and reporting timelines) • Recruit M&E Coordinator: IFPRI to recruit SI M&E Coordinator (Senior International Research position) with support staff in addition to DC-based team. • Establish M&E Implementation Community: To contribute to and finalize project M&E design, as well as guide, participate in and review M&E work plans and deliverables (composition, e.g., M&E specialist/liaison from involved CG centers, donor and national and regional partners). • M&E Open-Access, Web-Based Platform: To host and make accessible SI M&E plans, documents, and annual reports, as well as background publications, underlying datasets and analytical tools. Promote and apply standards for farming system, technology and impact characterization. • Annual M&E Technical Meeting: Likely aligned with proposed Project-wide Annual meeting (Need for cross-site planning and review meetings?)

19. Year 1 Timeline Component Inventory Site Selection/ Characterization Component DB Activity -> Indicator List Survey Design Baseline Survey Potential Impact Evaluation: Scaling Out & Projection ✔ 1-3 Months 3-9 Months 9-12 Months

20. Site/Station (& R&D) Inventory • Station Location (if known, Lat:___ Long: ___) • Location Name: ________________________________ • District: _____________ Region: __________________ • Site/Station Full Name: ______________________ • Institution: ________________________________ • Technologies/Practices tested/demonstrated • Contact details

21. Issues/Questions • Making an appropriate split of M&E resources between the M & the E? (e.g., strong interest in early assessments of outcomes and impact over time) • Process of selecting components? (responds to supply or demand?) • Likely cost of meeting donor’s minimum indicator needs? • Internal project management versus strategic M&E needs? • Establishing shared roles in data and tool development and application between implementation partners and M&E team (involve scientists in M&E team)? • e.g. obtaining appropriate cross-fertilization between M&E team and other teams in site selection, field data collection, annual reporting/analysis? Any feeling this should be “arms-length”? • What interest in being part of the M&E community (especially from national partners)? • Any likely candidates for M&E Coordinator?