SU.VO.T..shaping tomorrow’s tourism in a sustainable manner

1. KKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKKkkkkkkkk SU.VO.T..shaping tomorrow’s tourism in a sustainable manner SU.VO.T Conference Rimini, Italy 24 November 2007 Kirsten Wolfrath Project Coordinator, ITC ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability

2. SU.VO.T • Tourism is a vital economic factor natural resources cultural resources values of tourists • Destinations need to adapt to changing environments: climate change & behaviour patterns

3. The climate is changing! Scientific evidence urges action: climate change will impact • water resources • temperatures • ecosystems & biodiversity • agriculture • energy production • tourism • ...

4. Global warming - a changing climate • Fourth Assessment Report of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) published February 2007 on science of climate change. • Consensus: most of warming since mid-20th century is due to human activities. • Over the last 200 years, the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere (major gas that causes climate change) has increased by 30%. • This and other gases stop some of the Earth’s radiation from escaping to space (greenhouse effect). Result = Earth warms up, mainly due to burning of coal, gas and oil (human energy needs). • (Role of IPCC: To assess scientific basis of the risk of • human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation).

5. What is happening now? • Temperature increase: • 10 hottest years on record since 1991. • Temperatures have risen by 0,6° in the past century. • Oceans have warmed down to 3,000 metres. • Mountain glaciers and snow cover have declined. • Arctic ice cover is shrinking in depth and in extent. • Satellites have seen an acceleration in sea level rise (10 - 20 cm during the 20th century). • Lengthening of growing seasons. • More extremes in weather patterns and changing precipitation: • More intense and longer droughts have been recorded. • More intense rainfall. • 150 million people affected by floods worldwide (7 million in 60s). • Source: IPCC 2007

6. City Analogues Source: PRUDENCE (Christensen et al, 2002) EU 5FP HadRM3H-model

7. Climate change: Principal Environmental Problems

8. Tomorrow different from today? • Probabletemperature rise by end of 21st century: 1.8 - 4°C possible: 1.1 and 6.4°C. • Sea levels are likely to rise by 28-43cm (several meters?). • Arctic summer sea ice likely to disappear 2nd half of century. • Climate instability and extremes: Very likely that parts of the world will see an increase in the number of heat-waves; Likely increased intensity of tropical storms. • Changing ecosystems

9. Impact on European Regions Southern & South Eastern Europe: • droughts, heat waves, forest fires, biodiversity loss.. Tourist resorts may become too hot for summer holidays - shift to spring & autumn? Western & Atlantic Europe: • more extreme events:storm&floods, dryer hotter summers • Mountains: summer holidays could become more attractive but unlikely to compensate for losses of the skiing industry • Central Europe • increased risk of floods could threaten houses & infrastructure Northern Europe: • longer growing seasons, but maybe new diseases, Baltic Sea may be affected from algal bloom and pollution

10. Time and cost These impacts on resources will significantly affect key economic activities: Tourism • Climate change is non-linear in character: non-action today means serious impact later on. • Very limited timeframe in which to act : 13 years(countdown ...) • Consider the impact on communities: bio-diversity (fauna and flora already endangered), citizens, infrastructure, food crops, ... • Consider the cost: inaction / delayed action / acting now • Cheaper to act now- Stern Report.

11. Time to adapt Climate change mitigation should remain a priority • Energy & water saving and efficiency • Renewables: economic consequences - competitive advantage Set ambitious targets for tourism enterprises & resources use Urgent need to develop strategies for adaptation to the already inevitable climate changes: working groups A successful adaptation strategy needs a common & integrated approach: Sustainable Tourism management needs to be integrated into governance & management structures for the sustainability plan of your city

12. Action in diverse areas needed Reduce energy & water consumption Use energy efficiency measures Change to renewable energy (RE) Sustainable transport: green fleets, good public transport, support for pedestrians and cyclists. Reduce and recycle waste

13. Evaluation and Reporting Core document: Evaluation Report (update of…) Baseline Review Core document: Sustainability Report Implementation & Monitoring Core document: Sustainability Programme The Sustainability Cycle Political Commitment Core document: Council Approval Target Setting Core document: Sustainability Targets. A common & integrated approach

14. Truly sustainable tourism Adaptation can only be achieved in the tourism industry if it becomes more sustainable. Make sector more resilient to changes in climatic conditions & resources : • Implementation of efficient use of resources • Diversification of tourism activities (SU.VO.T) • increase awareness and foster necessary behavioural change tourists & enterprises

15. More intensive cooperation More intensive co-operation & common action using existing mechanism: The Network of Cities for Sustainable Tourism European Network of regions for a sustainable and competitive tourism ..

16. ICLEI - Local Governments for Sustainability • International Local Government Association (LGO): Environment Protection and Sustainable Development • More than 600 members in 66 countries, e.g. Berlin, London, Bursa, Barcelona, New York, Buenos Aires, Johannesburg, Delhi, Sydney, Kyoto,…... • Climate Protection, REnergy, Water management, Local Agenda 21, Sustainable Purchasing ... • Lead organisation representing local governments at the UNFCCC Conference of the Parties (COP), e.g. Bali 2007. Cities interact with international agencies

17. Conclusion • The clock is ticking. We can still avoid dangerous climate change, although it is too late for some species. • How much longer will be say ‘Urgent action is needed’, and wait for others to take the lead? Take the lead at local level. • How? Obtain cross-party political consensus to ensure continuity on climate protection priorities and action (develop a short to long-term vision). Link up to networks and actions that address mitigation and adaptation. We offer you: ICLEI and the CCP Campaign. • Decide to do something, plan how to do it, and do it. Now would be a good time ...