Integrated Learning Center for Statistics | Helpful Lectures, Homework Assistance, and Study Guides

1. Screen Cabinet Cabinet Lecturer’s desk Table Computer Storage Cabinet Row A 3 4 5 19 6 18 7 17 16 8 15 9 10 11 14 13 12 Row B 1 2 3 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row C 1 2 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row D 1 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row E 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row F 27 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 28 Row G 27 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 29 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 28 Row H 27 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row I 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 1 Row J 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 28 27 1 Row K 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row L 20 1 19 2 18 3 17 4 16 5 15 6 7 14 13 INTEGRATED LEARNING CENTER ILC 120 9 8 10 12 11 broken desk

2. Introduction to Statistics for the Social SciencesSBS200, COMM200, GEOG200, PA200, POL200, or SOC200Lecture Section 001, Spring, 2013Room 120 Integrated Learning Center (ILC)10:00 - 10:50 Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays. Welcome http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSQJP40PcGI

3. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 1 1 sd 1 sd .68 30 32 28

4. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 2 2 sd 2 sd .95 32 28 34 26 30

5. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 3 3 sd 3 sd .997 24 36 32 28 34 26 30

6. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 4 .50 24 36 32 28 34 26 30

7. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 5 Go to table 33-30 z = 1.5 z = .4332 2 .4332 24 36 32 28 34 26 30

8. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 6 Go to table 33-30 z = 1.5 z = .4332 2 .9332 .4332 .5000 24 36 32 28 34 26 30

9. .0668 Go to table 33-30 .4332 z = 1.5 z = .4332 2 33 .5000 - .4332 = .0668 Go to table 29-30 z =-.5 z = .1915 .5000 .1915 2 .5000 + .1915 = .6915 29 .4938 .1915 25-30 25 31 z = -2.5 z = .4938 2 .4938 + .1915 = .6853 Go to table 31-30 z =.5 z = .1915 2 .0668 .4332 27-30 z = -1.5 z = .4332 27 .5000 - .4332 = .0668 2

10. Problem 11: .5000 + .4938 = .9938 Problem 12: .5000 - .3413 = .1587 Problem 13: 30 Problem 14: 28 and 32

11. . 77th percentile Go to table nearest z = .74 .2700 x = mean + z σ = 30 + (.74)(2) = 31.48 .7700 .27 .5000 24 36 ? 28 34 26 30 31.48

12. . 13th percentile Go to table nearest z = 1.13 .3700 x = mean + z σ = 30 + (-1.13)(2) = 27.74 .37 .50 .13 ? 24 36 32 27.74 34 26 30

13. Problem 17: 68% or .68 or 68.26% or .6826 Problem 18: 95% or .95 or 95.44% or .9544 Problem 19: 99.70% or .9970 Problem 20: 27.34% or .2734 Problem 21: 40.13% or .4013 Problem 22: 69.15% or .6915 Problem 23: 18.41% or .1841 Problem 24: 28.81% or .2881 Problem 25: 96.93% or .9693 or 96.93% or .9693 Problem 26: .89% or .0089 Problem 27: 95.99% or .9599 Problem 28: 4.01% or .0401 Problem 29: 293.2 x = mean + z σ = 200 + (2.33)(40) = 293.2 Problem 29: 182.4 x = mean + z σ = 200 + (-.44)(40) = 182.4 Problem 31: 190 Problem 32: 217.6

14. Please click in My last name starts with a letter somewhere between A. A – D B. E – L C. M – R D. S – Z Please hand in your homework

15. Use this as your study guide By the end of lecture today2/20/13 Empirical, classical and subjective approaches Probability of an event Complement of an event; Union of two events Intersection of two events; Mutually exclusive events Collectively exhaustive events Conditional probability

16. Schedule of readings Before next exam (March 1st) Please read chapters 5, 6, & 8 in Ha & Ha Please read Chapters 10, 11, 12 and 14 in Plous Chapter 10: The Representativeness Heuristic Chapter 11: The Availability Heuristic Chapter 12: Probability and Risk Chapter 14: The Perception of Randomness

17. Labs continue this week Project 1 Lab sessions

18. Homework due – Friday (February 22nd) • On class website: • Please print and complete homework worksheet #12 • Types of probability and • calculating z-score, raw scores and areas under normal curve

19. What is probability 1. Empirical probability: relative frequency approach Number of observed outcomes Number of observations Probability of getting into an educational program Number of people they let in 400 66% chance of getting admitted Number of applicants 600 Probability of getting a rotten apple 5% chance of getting a rotten apple Number of rotten apples 5 Number of apples 100

20. What is probability 1. Empirical probability: relative frequency approach Number of observed outcomes Number of observations Probability of hitting the corvette Number of carts that hit corvette Number of carts rolled 182 = .91 200 91% chance of hitting a corvette

21. 2. Classic probability: a priori probabilities based on logic rather than on data or experience. We assume we know the entire sample space as a collection of equally likely outcomes (deductive rather than inductive). Number of outcomes of specific event Number of all possible events In throwing a die what is the probability of getting a “2” Number of sides with a 2 1 16% chance of getting a two = Number of sides 6 In tossing a coin what is probability of getting a tail 1 Number of sides with a 1 50% chance of getting a tail = 2 Number of sides

22. 3. Subjective probability: based on someone’s personal judgment (often an expert), and often used when empirical and classic approaches are not available. There is a 5% chance that Verizon will merge with Sprint Bob says he is 90% sure he could swim across the river

23. Approach Example Empirical There is a 2 percent chance of twins in a randomly-chosen birth Classical There is a 50 % probability of heads on a coin flip. Subjective There is a 5% chance that Verizon will merge with Sprint

24. Thank you! See you next time!!