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Lecturer’s desk

Screen. Cabinet. Cabinet. Lecturer’s desk. Table. Computer Storage Cabinet. Row A. 3. 4. 5. 19. 6. 18. 7. 17. 16. 8. 15. 9. 10. 11. 14. 13. 12. Row B. 1. 2. 3. 4. 23. 5. 6. 22. 21. 7. 20. 8. 9. 10. 19. 11. 18. 16. 15. 13. 12. 17. 14. Row C. 1. 2.

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Lecturer’s desk

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  1. Screen Cabinet Cabinet Lecturer’s desk Table Computer Storage Cabinet Row A 3 4 5 19 6 18 7 17 16 8 15 9 10 11 14 13 12 Row B 1 2 3 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row C 1 2 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row D 1 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row E 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row F 27 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 28 Row G 27 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 29 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 28 Row H 27 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row I 1 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 1 Row J 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 28 27 1 Row K 26 2 25 3 24 4 23 5 6 22 21 7 20 8 9 10 19 11 18 16 15 13 12 17 14 Row L 20 1 19 2 18 3 17 4 16 5 15 6 7 14 13 INTEGRATED LEARNING CENTER ILC 120 9 8 10 12 11 broken desk

  2. Introduction to Statistics for the Social SciencesSBS200, COMM200, GEOG200, PA200, POL200, or SOC200Lecture Section 001, Spring, 2013Room 120 Integrated Learning Center (ILC)10:00 - 10:50 Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays. Welcome http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSQJP40PcGI

  3. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 1 1 sd 1 sd .68 30 32 28

  4. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 2 2 sd 2 sd .95 32 28 34 26 30

  5. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 3 3 sd 3 sd .997 24 36 32 28 34 26 30

  6. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 4 .50 24 36 32 28 34 26 30

  7. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 5 Go to table 33-30 z = 1.5 z = .4332 2 .4332 24 36 32 28 34 26 30

  8. . Homework Worksheet: Problem 6 Go to table 33-30 z = 1.5 z = .4332 2 .9332 .4332 .5000 24 36 32 28 34 26 30

  9. .0668 Go to table 33-30 .4332 z = 1.5 z = .4332 2 33 .5000 - .4332 = .0668 Go to table 29-30 z =-.5 z = .1915 .5000 .1915 2 .5000 + .1915 = .6915 29 .4938 .1915 25-30 25 31 z = -2.5 z = .4938 2 .4938 + .1915 = .6853 Go to table 31-30 z =.5 z = .1915 2 .0668 .4332 27-30 z = -1.5 z = .4332 27 .5000 - .4332 = .0668 2

  10. Problem 11: .5000 + .4938 = .9938 Problem 12: .5000 - .3413 = .1587 Problem 13: 30 Problem 14: 28 and 32

  11. . 77th percentile Go to table nearest z = .74 .2700 x = mean + z σ = 30 + (.74)(2) = 31.48 .7700 .27 .5000 24 36 ? 28 34 26 30 31.48

  12. . 13th percentile Go to table nearest z = 1.13 .3700 x = mean + z σ = 30 + (-1.13)(2) = 27.74 .37 .50 .13 ? 24 36 32 27.74 34 26 30

  13. Problem 17: 68% or .68 or 68.26% or .6826 Problem 18: 95% or .95 or 95.44% or .9544 Problem 19: 99.70% or .9970 Problem 20: 27.34% or .2734 Problem 21: 40.13% or .4013 Problem 22: 69.15% or .6915 Problem 23: 18.41% or .1841 Problem 24: 28.81% or .2881 Problem 25: 96.93% or .9693 or 96.93% or .9693 Problem 26: .89% or .0089 Problem 27: 95.99% or .9599 Problem 28: 4.01% or .0401 Problem 29: 293.2 x = mean + z σ = 200 + (2.33)(40) = 293.2 Problem 29: 182.4 x = mean + z σ = 200 + (-.44)(40) = 182.4 Problem 31: 190 Problem 32: 217.6

  14. Please click in My last name starts with a letter somewhere between A. A – D B. E – L C. M – R D. S – Z Please hand in your homework

  15. Use this as your study guide By the end of lecture today2/20/13 Empirical, classical and subjective approaches Probability of an event Complement of an event; Union of two events Intersection of two events; Mutually exclusive events Collectively exhaustive events Conditional probability

  16. Schedule of readings Before next exam (March 1st) Please read chapters 5, 6, & 8 in Ha & Ha Please read Chapters 10, 11, 12 and 14 in Plous Chapter 10: The Representativeness Heuristic Chapter 11: The Availability Heuristic Chapter 12: Probability and Risk Chapter 14: The Perception of Randomness

  17. Labs continue this week Project 1 Lab sessions

  18. Homework due – Friday (February 22nd) • On class website: • Please print and complete homework worksheet #12 • Types of probability and • calculating z-score, raw scores and areas under normal curve

  19. What is probability 1. Empirical probability: relative frequency approach Number of observed outcomes Number of observations Probability of getting into an educational program Number of people they let in 400 66% chance of getting admitted Number of applicants 600 Probability of getting a rotten apple 5% chance of getting a rotten apple Number of rotten apples 5 Number of apples 100

  20. What is probability 1. Empirical probability: relative frequency approach Number of observed outcomes Number of observations Probability of hitting the corvette Number of carts that hit corvette Number of carts rolled 182 = .91 200 91% chance of hitting a corvette

  21. 2. Classic probability: a priori probabilities based on logic rather than on data or experience. We assume we know the entire sample space as a collection of equally likely outcomes (deductive rather than inductive). Number of outcomes of specific event Number of all possible events In throwing a die what is the probability of getting a “2” Number of sides with a 2 1 16% chance of getting a two = Number of sides 6 In tossing a coin what is probability of getting a tail 1 Number of sides with a 1 50% chance of getting a tail = 2 Number of sides

  22. 3. Subjective probability: based on someone’s personal judgment (often an expert), and often used when empirical and classic approaches are not available. There is a 5% chance that Verizon will merge with Sprint Bob says he is 90% sure he could swim across the river

  23. Approach Example Empirical There is a 2 percent chance of twins in a randomly-chosen birth Classical There is a 50 % probability of heads on a coin flip. Subjective There is a 5% chance that Verizon will merge with Sprint

  24. Thank you! See you next time!!

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