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Guidelines for future developments Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM

Planning for upcoming year activities & tasks, defining priorities, enhancing data assimilation, improving LM system & internal exchange, roadmap for high-resolution forecasts. Engage remote-sensing data, radar & satellite assimilation. Implement ensemble systems & advance LM model.

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Guidelines for future developments Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM

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  1. Guidelines for future developments Tiziana Paccagnella, ARPA-SIM

  2. Work Packages/Groups Coordinators meeting Bologna, 9-10 September 2004 Preliminary planning of activities for the next year 2004 - 2005

  3. Perspectives and specific tasks for next year have been drafted as a preparatory work for the planning phase of tomorrow.

  4. Planning procedure STC WG coordinators SPM GOALS/PERPECTIVES Long term (some years) aims/objectives WG coordinators Input from WG participants SPM WG coordinators Input from WG participants SPM During the preparatory phase of the COSMO general meeting ROAD MAPS How to achieve these objectives SPECIFIC TASKS/NEXT YEAR ACTIVITIES Precise definition of work packagess

  5. Planning procedure TOP priorities are identified as regards both ROAD MAPS and SPECIFIC TASKS

  6. ACTIVITIES, and precise definition of work-packages, are discussed and almost completely defined during the COSMO general meeting. • Activities plan includes: • Definition of TOP priorities • Committments with time schedule

  7. Planning procedure After the general meeting the final tuning of the yearly working plan is completed in about 1 month period. End of November the working plan is presented to the STC for the final approval. After approval of Top priorities STC members should do their best to assure committments will be fulfilled.

  8. 3 Enhance Use of Remote-sensing data in data assimilation 2 Doing high resolution forecast at the meso-gamma scale 1 Improve of LM system At the current Resolution 4 Development of Ensemble Systems Based on LM 6 Improve exchange with other consortia 5 Improve internal exchange and communications

  9. Road maps 2 Doing high resolution forecast at the meso-gamma scale • Assimilation of radar data • Assimilation of satellite data • GPS Tomography • Tuning of the nudging scheme • Nudging scheme for z-coordinates • Use of surface level data • LM-Z or not LM-Z • Increase the accuracy with the required efficiency (operational requirements) 1 Improve of LM system At the current Resolution • Complete the implementation of the Lake model • Implementation of 3–D turbulence • Development of radiation scheme • Implementation of soil model • Advanced microphysics scheme • Improvement of PBL • Shallow convection • Meso-gamma radiation • Improve the QPF at scales at • which deep convection must • be parametrized • Post-processing • Verification on the meso-gamma scale

  10. Road maps 3 Development of Ensemble Systems • Assessment of COSMO-LEPS • ………………

  11. Road maps 5 Improve exchange with other consortia 4 Improve internal exchange and communications • Some test cases for intercomparison with AROME • Visiting scientist programme • Guidelines • Post-Processing SW • High quality WEB site with updated documentation and information also for internal exchanges • WG6 workshop with special about operational implementations

  12. Road maps P1-P2-P4) probabilistic verification P1-P2-P4) Improve exchange and comparison of results (mainly on the WEB ) P1-P2-P4) Definition of “common LM problems P1-P2-P4-P5) Consolidation of common data-set P1-P2-P4) Common verification package at ECMWF P1-P2-P3-P4) Exchange of data with other consortia- P1-P2-P3-P4-P5)Visiting scientist programme

  13. concentrate on core activities => smaller number of WPs Avoid to put interest; try to define precise contributions (small but as realistic as possible) Keep the WG coordinator informed WG coordinators must spread information within their WG Suggestions

  14. Good work!

  15. Goals and perspectives for the past COSMO period(10/2003-09/2004) are: • Goals : • Consolidation, Documentation and Upgrade of the LM • Quality of precipitation forecast • Assessment of the 'realism' of forecasts • Multi-national assement assesment of COSMO-LEPS products • Assimilation of remote sensing data • Application and Interpretation • Statistical interpretation of high resolution forecasts • Paving the way for the Meso-gamma scale • Z-coordinate model version • New parameterization schemes • forefront verification and case studies • Perspective Issues are: • Variational Methods for Estimating Local Parameters

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