ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE 2018

1. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE2018 Ira Pohl TIM Feb 1, 2018

2. Talk • What is AI? • A brief history • Use in Industry • Is AI an existential Threat • UCSC work • Future

3. What is AI? • AI – a science/engineering of intelligence • In analogy to aeronautical engineering/flying • AI – model of “human/cognitive” system • Is done as a theory of human intelligence

4. Acting humanly: Turing Test • Turing (1950) "Computing machinery and intelligence": • Predicted that by 2000, a machine might have a 30% chance of fooling a lay person for 5 minutes • Anticipated most major arguments against AI • Loebner Prize SIRI(Apple) Cortana(Microsoft) OK GOOGL(Alphabet) • Alexa(Amazon)

5. Thinking humanly: cognitive modeling • 1960s "cognitive revolution": information-processing psychology Newell and Simon GPS • Requires scientific theories of internal activities of the brain • -- How to validate? Requires 1) Predicting and testing behavior of human subjects (top-down) or 2) Direct identification from neurological data (bottom-up)

6. Thinking rationally: "laws of thought" • Several Greek schools developed various forms of logic: notation and rules of derivation for thoughts; • Direct line through mathematics and philosophy to modern AI -Leibnitz,Boole • Kleene, Church, Turing – McCarthy, Robinson

7. AI prehistory • Philosophy Logic, methods of reasoning, mind as physical system foundations of learning, language, rationality • Mathematics Formal representation and proof algorithms, computation, (un)decidability, (in)tractability, probability,bayes • Economics/OR utility, decision theory • Neuroscience physical substrate for mental activity • Psychology phenomena of perception and motor control, experimental techniques • Computer Science building fast computers, algorithms • Linguistics knowledge representation, grammar

8. Abridged history of AI • 1943 McCulloch & Pitts: Boolean circuit model of brain • 1950 Turing's "Computing Machinery and Intelligence" • 1950s Early AI programs, including Samuel's checkers program, Newell & Simon's Logic Theorist, • 1956 Dartmouth meeting: "Artificial Intelligence" adopted • 1980 AI industry –Symbolics & Knowledge Based Systems • 1995 The emergence of intelligent agents • 1997 Kasparov loses to Deep Blue • 2003 iRobot – Roomba, Pacbot510 • 2011 Google Car –self driving 300,000 miles • 2011 MOOCs – autograded classes, edX software • 2014 Hawking “spell the end of the Human race” –BBC • 2015 Google AlphaGo beats European champion-using learning • 2016 IBM Watson does oncology (having won Jeopardy) • 2017 Okay GOOGLE, Nest, Alexa – AI runs the home • 2018 ALPHA-GO learns chess in two hours and beats STOCKFISH

9. Autonomous Car

10. Riba Description • RIBA — short for “Robot for Interactive Body Assistance” — was developed by researchers at Japan’s Institute of Physical and Chemical Research (RIKEN) and Tokai Rubber Industries, Ltd. (TRI). Designed primarily to assist nurses by lifting patients in and out of their beds and wheelchairs (as well as on and off the toilet), the 180-kilogram (400-lb) robot can safely pick up and carry people weighing as much as 61 kilograms (135 lbs).

11. RIBA -2008 Nurse Robot

12. Robot arm –in use in solar panelfactory - NYT 2012

13. Skilled Work without the WorkerNYT_ Aug 18, 2012 by John Markoff • Take the cavernous solar-panel factory run by Flextronics in Milpitas, south of San Francisco. A large banner proudly proclaims “Bringing Jobs & Manufacturing Back to California!” • Yet in the state-of-the-art plant, where the assembly line runs 24 hours a day, seven days a week, there are robots everywhere and few human workers. All of the heavy lifting and almost all of the precise work is done by robots that string together solar cells and seal them under glass. The human workers do things like trimming excess material, threading wires and screwing a handful of fasteners into a simple frame for each panel.

14. GO- Learning/MC • Go Program is now (Google Go program European Champ) about to surpass human ability • How: learning, big data, MC computation; • Distinctly not “human” cognition • Implication: Machine Intelligence is surpassing human ability in ways that humans cannot “understand”

15. State of the art • Deep Blue defeated the reigning world chess champion Garry Kasparov in 1997 -current best 3100+ vs 2800 for humans • Proved a mathematical conjecture (Robbins conjecture) unsolved for decades 1996 by EQP • No hands across America (driving autonomously 98% of the time from Pittsburgh to San Diego) in 1995 -2005 132mile unknown terrain-completely autonomous • During the 1991 Gulf War, US forces deployed an AI logistics planning and scheduling program that involved up to 50,000 vehicles, cargo, and people • Roomba 2002 > Now pet hair version, mopping, eaves, windows • RIBA 2007 • IBM WATSON- 2011 – wins Jeopardy against all time champs • Google robot Car 2012 300,000 miles Now >> 1,000,000

16. UCSC AI-and related • Pohl- Heuristic Search, Should Robots have Nuclear ARMs • Getoor- Big Data Inference • Mateas-Games Intelligent dialog for characters,Façade Interactive drama • Helmbold, Warmuth- effective learning algorithms • McDowell,Doshay- Go program(machine champ in 2006) • Elkaim- Autonomous Sailboat > now a degree program

17. Achievements • LISP, Time Sharing • Games – early space war games • Intellectual Games – mastery in Chess, checkers, Hex, othello, backgammon, scrabble- and now GO and Poker • MACSYMA –Mathematica, MATLAB • DENDRAL(chemistry, medicine … experts) • Robotics • Speech and Handwriting recognition (SIRI)

18. Large trends • Big data and learning- google can translate effectively between natural languages; • Big Computation- monte carlo simulations with simple metrics can outperform humans with deep knowledge

19. Yet to come • Will humans need to work? • GO store in Seattle –Amazon no cashiers • TESLA –autopilot for Semis • 3.5 million cashier jobs, 5million driving jobs • Will their be a “singularity” • Is there an existential threat? • If work and intelligence do not define us; what does?

20. Baxter - $3.00 per hour • Rodney Brooks : general purpose trainable indutrial robot: cost $22,000.

21. AI reads minds??

22. CYBORGS