1 / 9

Rapid Loss Estimation Tool for Hazards: Economic Consequences Analyzer

The Reduced-Form Economic Consequence Estimating Tool aims to quickly assess economic impacts of hazard events with a user-friendly software tool. DHS and non-DHS stakeholders benefit from this model to mobilize resources effectively. This project transitions the earthquake tool to various users and expands modeling approaches to different hazards.

mbodnar
Download Presentation

Rapid Loss Estimation Tool for Hazards: Economic Consequences Analyzer

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Reduced-Form Economic Consequence Estimating Tool: Earthquakes Adam Rose (PI) and Nat Heatwole (Co-PI & Research Transition Lead) 1/5/15

  2. Project Objectives • Research goals • rapidly estimate economic consequences of hazard events using simple and transparent, yet defensible, models • provide this loss estimation capability in a compact, user-friendly software tool • Research transition goals • ensure reduced-form earthquake tool is transitioned to the maximum number of users • expand reduced-form modeling approach to other types of hazards

  3. DHS Interest and Motivation • Why DHS would be interested • rapid loss estimates for resource mobilization (ex post) or benefit-cost analyses (ex ante) • minimal user inputs • straightforward outputs & uncertainty bands • Potential DHS contact agencies • Domestic Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) • Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) • state/local first responders & emergency management officials

  4. Potential non-DHS Stakeholders • Federal agencies • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) • U.S. Depts. of Agriculture, Defense, Interior, & Transportation • U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) • U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) • State/local agencies • California Earthquake Authority • California Emergency Management Agency • California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services • Los Angeles Dept. of Water and Power (LADWP) • Others • academics/researchers • insurance firms

  5. Interfaces to Related Research • Others working on this • U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Prompt Analysis of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) program • Interfaces with others in this field • reduced-form modeling approach used: • by Rose, Heatwole, Dixon et al. in a CREATE report to the U.S. Nuclear Detection Office (DNDO) • by Heatwole in a statistical analysis of economic cost of non-fatal injuries in terrorist attacks

  6. Research Technical Plan • Use data from SHELDUS (Spatial Hazard Events and Losses Database for the U.S.); supplement with primary data from media reports • Formulate reduced-form model of property damage in major U.S. earthquakes as function of: • hazard-related variables (e.g., Richter magnitude) • exposure-related variables (e.g., population, income) • Choose predictor variables for model using step-wise regression analysis

  7. Research Transition Plan • Work with Erroll & DHS to identify potential users - FEMA contacts - Professor Bill Siembieda for California contacts - NGOs (e.g., Red Cross, World Bank) • Improve presentation of Rapid EQ Tool - improve statistical fit - provide back-cast estimates of actual events • Present model to customers • Complete work on tornado example

  8. Milestones and Schedule/Timeline

  9. Screenshot from Tool

More Related