Storm Prediction Center

1. Storm Prediction Center Russell S. Schneider Steven J. Weiss DOC/NOAA/NWS/NCEP Storm Prediction Center Warn-on-Forecast Kickoff Workshop February 18, 2010 “Where America’s Weather and Climate Services Begin”

2. NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center • Forecast tornadoes, thunderstorms, and wildfires nationwide • Forecast information from 8 days to a few minutes in advance • World class team engaged with the research community • Partner with over 120 local National Weather Service offices

3. Toward a Continuous Stream of Decision Information Thunderstorm, Fire Weather, SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS Days Detailed MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS Hours SPC Products SVR/TOR WATCHES Minutes WARN Local NWS Products (WFO)

4. NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed EWP EFP Experimental Forecast Program Experimental Warning Program GOES-R PG Prediction of hazardous weather events from a few hours to a week in advance Detection and prediction of hazardous weather events up to several hours in advance

5. Primary HWT Collaborative Forecast Projects 2007-09 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 WINWEX ‘97 SE2002 IHOP forecasting support SE2006 Pre-implementation evaluation of NCEP NAM-WRF SE2000 Evaluation of Model soundings, RUC-based SFCOA, hail SE2004 First detailed look at Hi-Res WRF SE2003 Short-Range Ensembles (SREF) SE2007-09 Hi-Res WRF & Ensembles SE2001 Subjective Verif., Conv. Param. SE2005 Hi-Res WRF configuration testing

6. pathway for operational assessment and feedback Testbed R20 Process SPC-NSSL HWT Engage the community with a focus on forecast improvement

7. Ensembles: Explore & Define Uncertainty ARW – C0 ARPS – C0 ARW – CN NMM – CN ARPS – CN NMM – C0 18 hr Forecast - 1 km “Radar” Observed Radar Reflectivity HWT 2009 Spring Experiment

8. SPC Contributions to WoF • HWT is cornerstone for collaborative activities • Key partnerships with NSSL, EMC, GSD, OU/CAPS, and NCAR • Testing and evaluation of high-resolution model guidance for severe weather forecasting • Convection-allowing WRF models and CAPS Storm Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) system • Extraction of storm mode and intensity information • Supercells, linear mode, etc. • Probabilistic guidance information used in formulation of experimental severe weather forecasts • Systematic feedback to model developers • A community focused on forecast service improvement

9. SPC Contributions to WoF • SPC short-term Mesoscale Discussion and Watch focus coincide with near-term aviation impacts time frame (0-8 hrs) • HRRR, HRRRE, and CoSPA overlap with WoF • SPC will play active role in fine-tuning product suite to blend with WoF • Ramping up process for consistent operational probabilistic Outlook-Watch-Warning suite • Service delivery of risk/uncertainty information must include social science expertise to effectively convey threats to decision-makers

10. SPC Contributions to WoF • Additional Areas • Task 2 Data Assimilation Development • Satellite data assimilation (HWT/GOES-R Proving Ground) • Task 3 Case Studies for Evaluation • SPC CONUS prediction/monitoring provides unique perspective to provide input for candidate cases • Task 8 Model Parameterization Improvement • Model simulated satellite imagery offers complementary ways to examine model performance (HWT/GOES-R PG) • Task 9 Environmental Sensitivity Evaluation • Ongoing study analyzing relationship between storm report – storm mode - environment provides initial baseline • Includes all tornadoes and extreme hail, extreme wind reports since 2003

11. Low CAPE - Strong Shear High CAPE - Strong Shear Severe Reports Environment Hours ~50hr/yr ~100hr/yr • 24 % of F2+ tornadoes • local axis ~ 40 hr / year • 39 % of F2+ tornadoes • widespread~80 hr / year

12. All Reports or Modes (2005-2008) No Clear Organization (2005-2008) All Supercells (2005-2008) QLCS & Bow - no Supercells (2005-2008) • 13 % of tornadoes • 9 % of F2+ tornadoes • 74 % of all tornadoes • 90 % of F2+ tornadoes

13. www.spc.noaa.gov Russell.Schneider@noaa.gov