1 / 28

OVERVIEW

THE ABCs OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PROLIFERATION PROBLEMS, & THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS Amy E. Smithson, PhD Senior Fellow. OVERVIEW. THE BASICs WEAPONS HISTORICAL ROLE CHEMICAL TERRORISM CASE STUDIES PROLIFERATION CONCERNS THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS AUSTRALIA GROUP CWC.

mccullum
Download Presentation

OVERVIEW

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. THE ABCs OF CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PROLIFERATION PROBLEMS, & THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMSAmy E. Smithson, PhDSenior Fellow

  2. OVERVIEW • THE BASICs • WEAPONS • HISTORICAL ROLE • CHEMICAL TERRORISM • CASE STUDIES • PROLIFERATION CONCERNS • THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS • AUSTRALIA GROUP • CWC

  3. CHEMICAL WARFARE IN A NUTSHELL • SUSCEPTIBLE TO WIND, TEMPERATURE, PRECIPITATION • MOST WIDELY PROLIFERATED • TACTICAL WEAPON • ROLE IN CONFLICTS: • WWI = SIGNIFICANT • WWII = MARGINAL • IRAN-IRAQ WAR = SPORADIC, BUT IMPORTANT

  4. THE ABCs OFCHEMICAL WEAPONS • TWO APPROACHES: • UNITARY • BINARY • KEY PROPERTIES: • MODE OF ACTION: (e.g., INHALATION) • LETHALITY/TOXICITY • CAVEAT: THEORETICAL v. ACTUAL • STATE: (e.g., AEROSOL, LIQUID) • PERSISTENCE

  5. ABCs OFCHEMICAL WEAPONS • TYPES OF AGENTS: • CHOKING • BLISTER • BLOOD • NERVE • INCAPACITANTS • TWO TYPES OF DELIVERY: • POINT SOURCE • LINE SOURCE

  6. DELIVERY SYSTEMS

  7. CHEMICAL AGENTS

  8. DF Alcohol, promoter STEPS TO ACQUISITION • RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT • PRECURSOR PROCUREMENT • PRODUCTION: • PILOT • LARGE SCALE (BULK AGENT) • TESTING • WEAPONIZATION • STORAGE • INCORPORATION INTO DOCTRINE & EXERCISES

  9. CHEMICALDEFENSE • DETECTION • EARLY = KEY • MODEL HAZARD => AVOID CONTAMINATION • INDIVIDUAL PROTECTION • CUMBERSOME • EFFECTS FIGHTING CAPABILITY • MEDICAL THERAPY: • AUTOINJECTORS • DECONTAMINATION

  10. CWC MEMBERS ALBANIA CHINA IRAN INDIA LIBYA PAKISTAN RUSSIA SOUTH KOREA UNITED STATES CWC HOLDOUTS EGYPT ISRAEL NORTH KOREA SYRIA STATUS AT THE STATE LEVEL CWC = 188 MEMBERS

  11. SYRIA ACTIVE CHEMICAL PROGRAM WITH STOCKS • CHEMICAL PROGRAM DATING TO 1970s RELIANT ON FOREIGN ASSISTANCE • RECEIVED CHEMICAL WEAPONS, PRECURSORS FROM RUSSIA, EGYPT • 1980s: POSSIBLY DEVELOPED DOMESTIC NERVE AGENT CAPACITY • MULTIPLE PRODUCTION SITES • SUSPECTED STOCKPILE OF MUSTARD, SARIN, VX, POSSIBLY WEAPONIZED • DEGRADED SCUD, AERIAL DELIVERY CAPACITY Al-Safir

  12. APPEAL TOTERRORISTS • KNOW-HOW • COOKBOOKS • PATENT LITERATURE • MA LEVEL EDUCATION • SUPPLIES ON THE OPEN MARKET • CHEMICALS • PRODUCTION EQUIPMENT • DISPERSAL SYSTEMS • AS “EASY” AS RADIOLOGICAL DEVICES • MASS CASUALTY OR MASS TERROR • WASHINGTON, DC: 1,000 KG OF SARIN, LINE SOURCE ON CLEAR, CALM NIGHT • 3,000 TO 8,000 DEAD (OTA, 1993) • QUICK IMPACT

  13. AUM SHINRIKYO’S CHEMICAL WEAPONS PROGRAM • 1985-1995: $30 MILLION • 100 INVOLVED • AGENTS SYNTHESIZED • VX ─ SOMAN • TABUN ─ MUSTARD • SARIN ─ HYDROGEN CYANIDE • SARIN PRODUCTION GOALS • 70 TONS IN 40 DAYS • 2 TONS DAILY, 17.6 PINTS/BATCH • 2 SIGNIFICANT ATTACKS

  14. AUM’S INEPTNESS • PROBLEMS AT SATYAN 7 • WORKER EXPOSURES • 3 OFF-PREMISES LEAKS • NOVEMBER 1994 SAMPLES • BACKWARDS SPRAYER • NOVICE MASKS • SUBWAY ATTACK • 30% STRENGTH • DISPERSAL METHOD • NOT THE WESTERN SAFETY MODEL

  15. AL QAEDA & CO. • BIN LADEN’S HOLY DUTY MANDATE • ENCYCLOPEDIA OF JIHAD • PLOTS: ROME, LONDON, AMMAN • AFGHANISTAN • CHEMICAL COOKBOOKS + LABS • CNN DOG TAPE • TAKIFIRI CHLORINE ATTACKS (2007) • OTHER • ATTEMPTS TO ACQUIRE OTHER MATERIALS • CROPDUSTER INQUIRIES

  16. TERRORIST EVENTS WORLDWIDE: 1997-2006 TOTAL EVENTS:23,135 BOMBS: 12,806 ARMED ATTACKS: 5,798 ASSASSINATIONS: 1,689 KIDNAPPINGS: 1,393 ARSON: 786 HOSTAGE 58 HIJACKING 32 OTHER/UNKNOWN: 524 BIOLOGICAL:19 CHEMICAL:27 FOOD/WATER SUPPLY:6 RADIOLOGICAL: 0 Source: RAND/MIPT Terrorism Incident Database

  17. TECHNICAL PLUS-UPS: I • AID VIA FORMER WEAPONEERS • ABOUT 6,500 EXPERTS • OVER 12 FACILITIES • NEXT GENERATION AGENTS: • R&D BEGAN IN 1970s • NOVICHOK #5: • 5-8 TIMES AS EFFECTIVE AS VX • RED ARMY APPROVED • TONS PRODUCED • NOVICHOK #7: • 10 TIMES AS EFFECTIVE AS SOMAN • 10s OF TONS PRODUCED • CONCEPT: BURY IN AGROCHEMICAL INDUSTRY • CZECH AGENTS • APPEALS TO “LONE WOLF” ACTOR(S)

  18. TECHNICAL PLUS-UPS: II • NEW DISCIPLINES, TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION, SPEED OF ADVANCES • CROSSING OF CHEMICAL & BIOLOGICAL AGENTS • NOVEL NONLETHALS

  19. TECHNICAL PLUS UPS: III MICRO-REACTORS • HIGH SURFACE AREA TO REACTANT RATIO • ENERGY, COST EFFICIENT • MORE PRECISE CONTROL = SAFER • FASTER • GREENER • PROBLEM-SOLVING TECHNOLOGY: • ON DEMAND PRODUCTION • REDUCE DEVELOPMENT TIME • HIGHLY, EXOTHERMIC REACTIONS • MAKE UNSTABLE PRODUCTS • DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE PRODUCTS • NUMBERING UP = MULTI-TON PRODUCTION

  20. POISONOUS SHORT CUTS

  21. INDUSTRIAL + TRANSPORT SECURITY • COMMERCIAL PLANTS • GATES + FENCES + GUARD(S)  NO GUN(S) • EMPLOYEE SCREENING? • SAFETY LABELS; OTHERWISE, VARIABLE • PORTS: ADVANCE NOTIFICATION • RAILWAYS: • TANKERS = SAFETY LABELS • TARGETS: • EASILY SCOUTED • GO TO LOCAL BAR • TACTICS: EXPLOSIVES, REACTANTS (H20)

  22. 4,713 3,973 2,306 1,430 855 586 123 INDUSTRIAL SABOTAGE CONSEQUENCES

  23. THREAT REDUCTION MECHANISMS • 1899 HAGUE CONVENTION • 1925 GENEVA PROTOCOL • AUSTRALIA GROUP • 1997 CHEMICAL WEAPONS CONVENTION • COOPERATIVE THREAT REDUCTION PROGRAM • SOUND DEFENSES • INTELLIGENCE COOPERATION

  24. AUSTRALIA GROUP • ORIGINS: HINDER USE IN 198Os IRAN-IRAQ WAR • HARMONIZATION OF EXPORT CONTROLS: • 63 CHEMICALS • DUAL-USE EQUIPMENT • ACTIVITIES: • END-USER CERTIFICATES • NOTIFICATION OF REFUSALS • NO UNDERCUT POLICY • INTELLIGENCE EXCHANGE • 40 COUNTRIES + EC

  25. CWC PROVISIONS • BANS DEVELOPMENT, PRODUCTION, STOCKPILING & USE • ALLOWS DEFENSE • ALL MEMBERS DESTROY: NONDISCRIMINATORY • DECLARATIONS • INSPECTIONS: • ROUTINE • MILITARY • INDUSTRY • CHALLENGE • AUTOMATIC EXPORT CONTROLS • SCHEDULE II CHEMICALS • RIOT CONTROL AGENTS: • NOT IN WARFARE • YES FOR DOMESTIC RIOT CONTROL

  26. CWC BENCHMARKS • 188 MEMBERS • INSPECTIONS: 4,167 IN OVER 81 STATES • AGENT DESTROYED: 62% • WEAPONS/CONTAINERS DESTROYED: 45% • 70 PRODUCTION FACILITIES: CLOSED • 43 DESTROYED • 21 CONVERTED

  27. CWC DIFFICULTIES • 10-YEAR DESTRUCTION DEADLINE MISSED: • U.S. & RUSSIA WILL NOT MEET 2012 (OR 2021) • DISTRIBUTION OF INSPECTIONS • DECLARATIONS & DOMESTIC IMPLEMENTATION • PROMPT FROM UN RES. 1540

  28. CWC SHORTCOMINGS • U.S. EXEMPTIONS: • NATIONAL SECURITY • LABORATORY ANALYSIS • NO CHALLENGE INSPECTIONS • EXPANSION OF EXPORT CONTROLS TO SCHEDULE III CHEMICALS • RIOT CONTROL LOOPHOLE? • NOT KEEPING UP WITH TECHNICAL ADVANCES: • NOVICHOKS • MICROREACTORS • APPLICABILITY TO SUB-NATIONAL ACTORS • ENFORCEMENT

More Related