The end of Fidel and its Effect on the Political Situation in Cuba

1. The end of Fidel and its Effect on the Political Situation in Cuba

2. 1995-2005: Brain Disease, Cancer², Neurological Problems, Heart Attack, Parkinson’s Disease, Terminal Pancreatic Cancer¹ • December 24th 20006: Confirmation of Diverticulitus, Dr. García Sabrido • July 31st 2006: Fidel passes temporary power to Raùl Illness and Suspicion ¹Medical New Today May 2006 ²Sydney Morning Herald. September 24, 2004 ³El Periódico de Catalunya December 24 2006

3. Officially elected as president on February 24th 2008 • "I have always been discreet, that is my way.” ¹ • “Fidel has been the visionary, but hopelessly disorganised,"² •  "Raúl has a reputation for being more politically repressive then Fidel, but he is also more organized, more practical and more of an executive than Fidel.”³ Raùl Castro ¹Raùl Castro: 2006 Interview ²Brian Latell, Former CIA Officer, Author of ‘After Fidel’ ³ Samuel Farber, Political Scientist at Brooklyn College

4. Delegating vs. “Leading the Circus” • Having the $$ to “play the political game” • Opening the private sector • Communist Party Congress; first since 14 Years¹ • Releasing Political Prisoners; Exile & Gateway to US/EU relations • “Excessive Prohibitions”, cell Phone and computers, rise in salaries and state pensions² • Changing Relationship with Hugo Chàvez? Change in Leadership, Change in Policy ¹BBC: Is Cuba set for major changes in 2011? 2 January 2011 ²BBC: Profile: Raul Castro 14 March 2011

5. “Caudillismo” • Castro’s leadership is nontransferable. • A change in Cuban leadership could mean a change in the type of government that the Cuban people embrace. Legacy of Communism

6. When Fidel Castro’s regime departs, a move from communism to a democratic form of government by new Cuban leadership will not occur overnight. • To change a country’s economy, productivity, and government are complex issues that take time and resources. Communism to Democracy

7. It is in the U.S.’ interest that Cuba transform to a democratic form of government and that this transition occur as smoothly as possible. • Any resultant chaos from a transition in government would most likely affect the U.S. • Because of the strong Cuban presence in America and because Cuba is a geographically close neighbor, it will be beneficial for the US to assist Cuba during and after a transition of power, to decrease the likelihood of a failed state scenario in Cuba. Cuba’s Effect on the US

8. US Trade Relations and Sanctions • 2008 – “The end of a dark era in Cuba’s history.” – Obama • Democratic Party Platform on US-Cuba Relations • End to a 52 year trade embargo? US Trade Relations and Sanctions

9. 2009 – Cuban Assets Control and Customs and Border Protection • Purposeful Travel • Remittances • U.S. Airports US Trade Relations and Sanctions

10. State Department Position on Terrorism Listing • 2010 - Air Security Measures • Christmas Day Bombing • “Anti-Terrorist Paranoia” Terrorism and Air Security Measures

11. National Reaction • Hope for Democracy • Generational Disrupt • Miami, 2008 – “Cuba Sí, Castro No!” • Will the population of Cuban exiles return? Cuban and Cuban-American Sentiment

12. Scrambling for a new way forward • 90% of Cuba's 6 million workers employed by state • 500,000 public employees fired this spring (10% of workforce) • Raul Castro: unemployed "depend in large part on the private management and initiative of the individual"

13. Is the contract Cubans had with the revolution still working? • To what extent do you believe the US should be able to influence the hoped for democratic change of the Cuban political system? • Do you believe that the progressive motion of the government in the direction of democracy will be able to maintain its’ forward momentum? • What are potential repercussions of the relay-race like ascension to power happening in Cuba? Fidel to Raul to ..? Is there opportunity for competition? Discussion Questions