Why Public Opinion Doesn’t Equal Public Policy

Why Public Opinion Doesn’t Equal Public Policy • Public opinion—the distribution of individual attitudes toward a particular issue, candidate, or political institution. • Framers did NOT create a government to do what the people wanted on a day-to-day basis…look at the Preamble • It is not always easy to decipher what the public thinks • The more people are active people are, the more weight their opinions carry—most people value politics LOW

Origins of Political Attitudes: “Agents of Socialization” • Political socialization: the process through which an individual acquires his/her own political orientations • Family—majority of young people identify with their parents’ political party, but this influence has declined with rise of independents • Religion—Protestants conservative; Jews and Catholics liberal on economic issues, Jews also liberal on social issues—emphasize social justice • Jews/Catholics once poor immigrants, sided with Democrats. • Christian Coalition—mobilizes grassroots Republicans, place importance on personal responsibility • Gender—males more conservative, females will support female candidates…party alliances have switched as party stances switched

The Role of Schooling: Why are More Educated People Liberal?? • Individual traits may account for liberalism (family, intelligence, temperament) • Students more exposed to politics from more sources (liberal cultural elite) • College teaches liberalism (professors decidedly liberal…demand intellectual and hence, civil liberties) • Effect extends long after college • But wealth sometimes tempers these effects

Public Opinion Differences • The devil is in the demographics. • U.S. has long been a melting pot • Social Class: V.O. Key : professionals more conservative on social policy, internationalist views (50s), now less so • Race: Seymour Lipset: Whites opposed to affirmative action, blacks oppose death penalty, races agree on banning abortion on demand, ban on drugs. Asians (esp. Japanese) vote like whites, Hispanics differ • Region: South more accommodating to business, less friendly to fiscal redistribution

New Phenomenons: • “Gray Tigers”-senior citizens very powerful • Sunbelt increasing in power over “Rustbelt” • Reapportionment accelerates this • Growing influence of Hispanic population

Political Ideology • Def’n: A coherent and consistent set of beliefs about who ought to rule, what principles rulers should obey, and what policies rulers ought to pursue • People regularly have “inconsistent” opinions (ex: wanting to spend more on both national defense and welfare) • Elites have MASSIVE influence in framing the debate—they may not tell you how to think, but they make you think certain issues are important

Changing Meaning of Liberalism • Old (Classical Liberalism or European Liberalism): Favors personal and economic liberty. Would have supported free market and opposed government regulation of trade • New: Favors active national government, social welfare, assisting organized labor in bargaining, civil rights, affirmative action • Changed extensively by FDR: Activist government

Changing Meaning of Conservatism • Old: Opposed excesses of French Revolution and its emphasis on personal freedom, wanted to restore power of the State, the Church, and the aristocracy • Now: Favor foreign intervention, less government, free market, states’ rights

Analyzing Consistency • Pure Liberals (17%)—liberal economically and socially, want to tax rich heavily, regulate business, fiscally redistribute, cure economic causes of crime, guarantee abortion rights, protect rights of the accused and 1st amendment freedoms • Pure Conservatives (28%)—conservative economically and socially, want to cut back welfare state, allow free market to operate, low taxes, lock up criminals, curb deviant behavior • Libertarians (21%)—conservative economically, liberal socially • Populists (24%)—liberal economically, conservative on social issues

Is there a “New Class?” • Def’n: Those who are advantaged by the power, resources, and growth of GOVERNMENT (not business) • 2 explanations of well-off liberals: 1) Directly benefit from government 2) Liberal ideology infusing postgraduate education • Traditional MC also split in 2: • Republican MC: 4 years college, suburban, church-affiliated, probusiness, socially conservative. “Silent majority” • Democrat MC: Postgraduate, urban, critical of business, liberal socially

Party Membership • Democrats: African-Americans, Jews, union members, educated people, many Catholics (changing) • GOP: White males, Protestants, business community, higher-income groups, suburbanites, some Catholics because of Republican view on abortion (“Knights of Columbus” Catholics)

Public Opinion Polling • Rarely a single public opinion; diversity produces many opinions • Polling developed during 1930s (Gallup) • Polls rely on a SAMPLE of the population or UNIVERSE. • 1500-2000 people can provide a very good overview of what the universe thinks • Key to accuracy: random sampling • Sampling error will always exist; minimize in several ways (larger sample) • Most polls use sophisticated computer software, random digit dialing • Problems: Nonresponse rate increasing, bad techniques (1936 poll predicts Landon victory)

The Role of Polls in American Democracy • Supporters: It’s a tool for democracy that keeps leaders responsive • Critics: Makes politicians too concerned with following rather than leading • Benjamin Ginsberg: polls actually weaken democracy because it takes into account passive voices • Polls may create a bandwagon effect • Exit poll most criticized poll • Bias in questions, wording of questions can skew results

Results of Polling • Average American has low level of knowledge. Name current leaders test (VP, Cabinet, CJ SCOTUS)

Why Public Opinion Doesn’t Equal Public Policy