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Bruce Biewald Presentation to East Coast Energy Group Washington, DC; November 10, 2004

The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of Efficiency Savings into Energy Models. Bruce Biewald Presentation to East Coast Energy Group Washington, DC; November 10, 2004. 22 Pearl Street Cambridge, MA 02139 617.661.3248 bbiewald@synapse-energy.com

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Bruce Biewald Presentation to East Coast Energy Group Washington, DC; November 10, 2004

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  1. The Shape of Things to Come: Incorporating Unproven Reserves of Efficiency Savings into Energy Models Bruce Biewald Presentation to East Coast Energy Group Washington, DC; November 10, 2004 22 Pearl Street Cambridge, MA 02139 617.661.3248 bbiewald@synapse-energy.com www.synapse-energy.com

  2. Marginal costs influence behavior • The shape of CSE curves matters • Unproven efficiency reserves are typically ignored • Unproven oil and gas reserves are not ignored • Research is needed to characterize technological change and unproven efficiency reserves Synapse Energy Economics

  3. Prices for US Electricity, Gas, Oil (nominal $) Synapse Energy Economics

  4. Regional Clean Energy Plans These reports are available on the web: www.repowermidwest.org www.poweringthesouth.org www.westernresourceadvocates.org/energy/bep.html Synapse Energy Economics

  5. Xenergy, Generic curve Synapse Energy Economics

  6. Xenergy, Generic curve Solar Energy Research Institute, 1981, US Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State (4) Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia (2) LBL, 1999, US SERI, 1981, US CSE Curve Data Synapse Energy Economics

  7. LBL, 1995, US Amory Lovins, 1989, US Optimal, 2003, New York State Xenergy, 2002, California Hewlett Energy Foundation, 2002, California Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW Tellus, 2001, Interior West Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW Tellus, 2001, Utah NYSERDA, 2003, New York State (2) CSE Curve Data Synapse Energy Economics

  8. Solar Energy Research Institute, 1981, US Synapse Energy Economics

  9. Interlaboratory Working Group on Energy-Efficient and Low-Carbon Technologies, 1997, US Synapse Energy Economics

  10. Tellus, 2002, Pacific NW Synapse Energy Economics

  11. American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State Synapse Energy Economics

  12. American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State Synapse Energy Economics

  13. American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State Synapse Energy Economics

  14. American Council For an Energy-Efficient Economy, 1989, New York State Synapse Energy Economics

  15. Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia Synapse Energy Economics

  16. Marbek Resource Consultants and Willis Energy Services, 2003, British Columbia Synapse Energy Economics

  17. LBL, 1999, US Synapse Energy Economics

  18. SERI, 1981, US Synapse Energy Economics

  19. LBL, 1995, US Synapse Energy Economics

  20. Amory Lovins, 1989, US Synapse Energy Economics

  21. Optimal, 2003, New York State Synapse Energy Economics

  22. Xenergy, 2002, California Synapse Energy Economics

  23. Hewlett Energy Foundation, 2002, California Synapse Energy Economics

  24. Northwest Power and Conservation Council, 2002, Pacific NW Synapse Energy Economics

  25. Tellus, 2001, Interior West Synapse Energy Economics

  26. Tellus, 2001, Pacific NW Synapse Energy Economics

  27. Tellus, 2001, Utah Synapse Energy Economics

  28. NYSERDA, 2003, New York State Synapse Energy Economics

  29. NYSERDA, 2003, New York State Synapse Energy Economics

  30. EIA Synapse Energy Economics

  31. EIA Synapse Energy Economics

  32. Hydrocarbon Resource Classification Synapse Energy Economics

  33. US Oil and Gas (as of 1/1/2002) Synapse Energy Economics

  34. Oil and Gas Math Synapse Energy Economics

  35. IEA Regional Shares Synapse Energy Economics

  36. Proven Reserves by Region Synapse Energy Economics

  37. Ultimately Recoverable Synapse Energy Economics

  38. World Original Resource Base Synapse Energy Economics

  39. Annual Production Scenarios Synapse Energy Economics

  40. Ultimately Recoverable Oil Synapse Energy Economics

  41. Gas Price Forecasts Since 1975 Synapse Energy Economics

  42. Generic CSE curve corrected Synapse Energy Economics

  43. Research Ideas • Analysis of CSE curves – past projections v. what actually happened • Identify reasons for upturn in CSE price • Characterize reasons and quantify to the extent possible – by technology. • Apply concepts from oil and gas reserves? Synapse Energy Economics

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