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Potential for Tram in the City of Skopje, Project Introduction

Potential for Tram in the City of Skopje, Project Introduction. Gjorgjievski Kristijan | 13 October 2011. Developments in the past year. December 2010 – The City of Skopje engaged Vialto Consulting and EC Harris as consultants to do the following tasks:

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Potential for Tram in the City of Skopje, Project Introduction

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  1. Potential for Tram in the City of Skopje, Project Introduction Gjorgjievski Kristijan | 13October 2011

  2. Developments in the past year • December 2010 – The City of Skopje engaged Vialto Consulting and EC Harris as consultants to do the following tasks: • Phase I - Preparation of a Study for a concession project for development and introduction of light railway system for passenger transport in the area of the City of Skopje. The study includes: • Traffic - technical analysis • Economic and financial analysis • Legal analysis • Possibilities for development • Phase II - Preparation of Tender Documentation and model contract, evaluation criteria and animation of potential investors; • Phase III – Advisory in the selection process and contracting negotiations

  3. Planned Tram Network(Feasibility Study 2007) Line 1Line 1 alternativesLine 2Line 3Line 4

  4. Estimated Passenger Flow(Peak Hour)

  5. Estimated Tram Passenger Flow „Corridor” approach (change to tram) 80% of bus passengers (80 pax per bus) 20% of car passengers (1,5 pax per car) Daily passengers assumptions w = 15% (peak hour factor) growth factor: 1% per year diameter shaped lines have two branches Yearly passengers assumptions 250 workdays, 115 holidays holiday = 0.5 × workday

  6. Other Analysed Technical Issues Modification of tram stop allocation Track alignment (side or central) Tariff system Bus reorganization

  7. Proposed Versions

  8. Investments and Operational CostVersion 2a - Novo Lisice - Centar - Gjorce Petrov

  9. Investments and Operational CostVersion 2a - Novo Lisice - Centar - Gjorce Petrov

  10. Financial analysis of a possible version • Optimum operative subsidy, with 10% initial investment • 10 % initial investment granting • optimum operative subsidy (to reach at least 11 % interest rate on equity and not to have negative cumulative cash-flow) • no ticket price reduction (except for students and pensioner) Kristijan Gjorgjievski|

  11. The Study - Conclusions • It is financially feasible to introduce the Tram as an environmentaly friendly high capacity transport mode in the City of Skopje; • Among line options investigated, nr 1 proved to be most beneficial and financially feasible (12km long trunk line); • Later further development is possible (line 2, 3); • Sustainable public financing is needed • 10 % initial investment granting • optimal operative subsidy • Risks to be mitigated (cost overrun, time overrun, policy failure, car invasion). • Need for changes in legislation, due to a new way of transport • Additional measures: • Modification of local transport strategy. • Reorganisation of JSP

  12. Next steps • The city of Skopje decided to proceed with the next phase, i.e into project preparatory phase • Animation of possible investors and organizing round table (end of November 2011) • Expected tender announcement – End of January 2012 Kristijan Gjorgjievski|

  13. Questions ?

  14. Thank You for Your Attention! kristijan.gjorgjievski@vialto.hu The study was prepared by Dr. Csaba Orosz, Dr. Janos BERÉNYI Dr. Tibor Princz-Jakovics Dr. Peter Bocz,

  15. Backup slides Kristijan Gjorgjievski|

  16. PPP (DBFM) Structure

  17. Present traffic flow to the centre (morning peak hour)Тековен проток на сообраќајот во центарот car bus 27th of June 2011 17

  18. Public subsidy, Version 2a/4 Negotiationpoint 15th of April 2011

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