Could the ‘Climate Sceptics’ be Right?

1. Could the ‘Climate Sceptics’ be Right? • This ppt is not complete, but has been put on vicphysics in order to provide this material for use by teachers and others who may need to counter the all to prevalent denier arguments. • Additional ideas welcome! • Contact us at Latest revision: 28 Mar 2010

2. Could the ‘Climate Sceptics’ be Right? Keith Burrows

3. Common Misconceptions by Climate Change Deniers • This is a preview version of two different presentations we are in the process of preparing • 1. A ‘Quick reference’ set of points for use in another presentation when denier points come up. Hyperlinks will take you to a set of quick answers to common points. • 2. A fuller discussion of the common misconceptions to be used as a stand alone presentation or in conjunction with others. • PLEASE SEE WEBSITE FOR UPDATED VERSION OF THIS PPT • www.vicphysics.org ‘Teachers’ ‘Climate change’ • 28 March 2010 version

4. ‘Climate sceptics’ and ‘climate deniers’ Climate sceptics • Scepticism is an important part of science. Scientists always try to question and test their theories. • Scientific sceptics discuss their questions with other scientists through the peer reviewed journals. Climate deniers • Deniers take the supposed ‘debate’ to the public – inappropriately. They avoid discussions with the scientific community. • Deniers express no doubt about their position – or they would have to take action in case they are wrong.

5. Some Deniers

6. Some Deniers

7. GO Common Misconceptions (Deceptions?) GO Group 1 – It’s not really warming Is the world warming or cooling? What about the past? Does it matter? Group 2 – Greenhouse gases Are we really adding to the greenhouse effect? Group 3 – The science Do we really know what’s going on? Group 4 – Distractions Irrelevancies that only confuse the issue. GO GO

8. Common Misconceptions Group 1 – It’s not really warming It is getting cooler - or at least the warming has stopped. The Arctic sea ice is recovering back to normal Antarctica is not warming and sea ice there has increased. The Middle Ages were warmer – it’s all sunspots. The climate is always changing. A bit of warming will be good. It’s not really getting warmer, it’s the heat island effect Sea levels are not rising, or have stopped rising.

9. Common Misconceptions Group 2 - Greenhouse gases The extra CO2is not from fossil fuels. CO2 makes up a very small proportion of the atmosphere. Water vapouris a more important greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. More CO2will help plants grow better The CO2 in the atmosphere is already saturated

10. Common Misconceptions Group 3 - The science The warming is caused by natural cycles - Earth orbit, the Sun, cosmic rays, etc Climate models are just computer models which are not reliable. Correlation between temperature and CO2 levels does not prove causation – anyway, CO2 is going up & temperatures falling! Global warming just an unproven theory. ‘Science not settled’ Many scientists disagree with the IPCC conclusions and anyway the IPCC is a political body. Ice core data shows that CO2 rises after the temperature. CO2 absorption is saturated.

11. Common Misconceptions Group 4 - Distractions Past warming has been good for life. Technology will eventually solve the problem through geoengineering or CO2 pull down. Tackling climate change is economically dangerous. The increased CO2 from the developing world will exceed any reduction the developed world can do. Australia’s total emissions are much less than China’s People have been predicting global catastrophes forever and none ever come true. In the 1970's they said we were approaching an ice age. Climate change has been taken up by left wing groups to attack capitalism. The ‘hacked’ emails prove climate scientists cooked the data.

12. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” The earth’s climate is influenced by many factors. A time span of several decades is needed to observe any trend. These claims rely on ‘cherry picking’ a particularly hot year – 1998 the hottest year on record. But choose 1996 or 1997 – Then EVERY year since then has been hotter! The eleven hottest years ever recorded were all in the last 14 years (HADCrut data).

13. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” Top 1011 temperatures on record (NASA-GISS data) 9 of them this century None earlier than 1997 Top 11 all in the last 12 years (which one missed?) 8 out of 9 years this century in the top ten (2000 was 15th) But this is cherry picking! PS: 2009 looks like being at least in the top 5!

14. * *2009 estimated 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” Just need to look at the data!

15. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” Just need to look at the data!

16. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” (This is the one the deniers like!)

17. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” This is the one Monckton likes! (See later)

18. This is what the deniers do –

19. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” Annual temperatures are influenced by many factors including solar radiation, ENSO, local effects, Volcanic activity etc. The annual global warming trend is only about a tenth of the yearly variation...

20. 40 years

21. Typical yearly variation compared to yearly warming trend

22. CLIMATE CHANGE WEATHER Which is why we notice the weather more than climate change!

23. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” • For this reason we should look at decade trends or long term averages CSIRO graph 11 year averages

24. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” • For this reason we should look at decade trends or long term averages

25. Which is more likely? OR

26. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” “Lord Monckton of Brenchley”

27. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” “Lord Monckton of Brenchley”

28. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped”

29. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” ‘Other factors’ include the El Niño – La Niña cycle (ENSO) 1998 was an exceptionally strong El Niño. 2000 and 2008 were La Niña’s We are heading upward again now .

30. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” ‘Other factors’ also include the Sun – red line & curve We should expect some cooling (green) to 2008 as both ENSO (blue curve) and Sun (red) are in a low phase. Problem will be when they go higher again in the next few years!

31. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” A better indicator of ‘total Earth heat’ is the Ocean Heat Content Anomaly. Most warming is accumulated in the oceans and ice (62%): Global energy accumulation and net heat emission Nordell and Gervet

32. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” A better indicator of ‘total Earth heat’ is the Ocean Heat Content Anomaly. Here is one estimate:

33. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” And another from the CSIRO: Ocean heat content is going up relentlessly! and another showing several different studies....

34. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” Here is a slide from Ashby – Note only 4 years (and a questionable source)

35. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” Here is another four year graph of ocean heat content: We could imagine it’s dropping

36. Another 4 year ‘cherry pick’ 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” Actual trend But this is actually a small section of a larger graph!

37. A different approach is to measure the total energy coming in from the Sun and the total being radiated out to space. If they are equal the Earth’s temperature will remain constant, but if not ...

38. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” * National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (Washington, D.C.), The Earth Institute at Columbia University (New York), and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (California) By measuring reflected and emitted radiation, and comparing it to incoming solar radiation “scientists have concluded that more energy is being absorbed from the Sun than is emitted back to space, throwing the Earth's energy "out of balance" and warming the planet.” *

39. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” Footnote: “Some climate scientists are predicting that surface temperatures will remain static or even fall slightly over the next few years, before warming resumes. Their predictions are based largely on the idea that changes in long-term fluctuation in ocean surface temperatures known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation will bring cooler sea surface temperatures.” Michael Le Page New Scientist 15 August 2008 Let’s hope they are right – it may give us a little more time to get our act together! The deniers have picked up this item – but forget the “before warming resumes” bit

40. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” Stop Press A recent paper in AAAS Science Magazine showed that changes in the amount of water vapour in the lower stratosphere could have amplified warming in the 1990’s and reduced it in the 2000’s Some deniers heard the bit about water vapour and not the rest and have claimed that it’s water vapour not CO2 that is causing the warming.

41. 1-1 “It is getting cooler” “the warming has stopped” Stop Press “This doesn’t alter the fundamental conclusion that the world has warmed and that most of that warming has to do with greenhouse gas emissions caused by man” Susan Solomon, climate scientist at NOAA and author of the paper.

42. 1-2 “The Arctic Sea Ice is recovering”

43. 1-2 “The Arctic Sea Ice is recovering” This is a “recovery”?

44. 1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased”

45. 1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased” This little piece of Antarctica has not warmed

46. 1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased”

47. 1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased” • Antarctic sea ice patterns changing: • decreasing in some areas • increasing in others. • Antarctic climate influenced by many factors: • Ozone hole – strengthens ‘polar vortex’ winds • "We see a very mixed pattern of both melting and ice growth in the Antarctic," said Thorsten Markus, head of NASA Goddard's Cryospheric Sciences Branch. "Changes in the cyclonic pattern due to the ozone hole are one of the best explanations we have."

48. 1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased” • “The key is that warming temperatures can lead to more stratified ocean layers” • Jinlun Zhang, oceanographer, University of Washington • Warming  more evaporation  more snow/rain  fresh water sits on top of salt water  less mixing of warm water currents  colder sea surface temperature  more sea ice

49. 1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased” • Flooded Sea Ice Turns Snow to Ice • Snow accumulates on sea ice  ice sinks lower  waves wet surface  water freezes  increase in sea ice • See What’s Holding Antarctic Sea Ice Back From Melting? physorg.com September 2nd, 2009 Adam Voiland (NASA)

50. 1-3 “Antarctica is not warming…sea ice has increased” • The climate is complex! • We understand a lot – but not all. • One small ‘paradox’ does not discount all the evidence of global warming