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Explore sources, pathways of mercury in food webs, assess management actions' impact. Conceptual model for pinpointing gaps, Quantitative Mechanistic Models for detailed tracking. Identify high-leverage processes for better management strategies.
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Hg Modeling Options RMP CFWG September 14, 2007
RMP Mercury Management Questions • Where is mercury entering the food web? • Which sources, processes, and pathways contribute disproportionately to food web accumulation? • Can we do anything about these high-leverage processes, sources, and pathways? • What effects can be expected from management actions? • Will total mercury reductions result in reduced food web accumulation?
Conceptual Model • CEP Hg CM • Break out MeHg alone? • Simple 1 box budget to ID and track largest data gaps • Test uncertainties and importance of particular sources/factors • First step in prioritizing future work
Quantitative Mechanistic Models • Typical box models • track transport in/out relatively well • In situ process more crudely (temporally/spatially) • Possible for total Hg, but useful? • Total Hg <> bio Hg • Current multibox may already stretch limits of spatially explicit inputs • Not possible for MeHg? • Might work on very large temporal/spatial scale with gross/average assumptions • “Mechanistic” likely needs C/N/S tracking on top of Hg balance and de/methylation kinetics