Agrofuels … driving climate change ( a systemic view )

2. Agrofuels …driving climate change ( a systemic view )

3. Two Converging Imperatives: Peak Oil and Climate Change The Agro-Biofuels Solution Three Impacts: Food, Forests, Climate Outline

6. An IPCC proposal for stabilising CO2: the Pascala and Socolow wedges. Each wedge saves 25 billion tonnes of emissions between now and 2050. Billions of tonnes of Carbon emitted per year Currently projected path 7 wedges Historical emissions 1955 2005 2055 2105

7. Bioethanol, Biobutanol, Biodiesel 1 Wedge = 24m barrels/day of bioethanol replacing gasoline by 2055 Requires 250m Ha of high yield plantation Or 1/6 of global cropland = land mass of India NREL Replacing Oil withBiofuels

8. Fuel = Food Mexicans taking to the streets as ethanol makes their staple food unaffordable

9. A Declaration by Latin American NGOs: “We want food sovereignty, not biofuels… While Europeans maintain their lifestyle based on automobile culture, the population of Southern countries will have less and less land for food crops and will loose its food sovereignty… We are therefore appealing to the governments and people of the European Union countries to seek solutions that do not worsen the already dramatic social and environmental situation of the peoples of Latin America, Asia and Africa.”

10. Army repression against peasants protesting against soya plantations

11. The human cost of biofuel monocultures: pesticide poisoning in Paraguay

13. Landless People’s Camp in Front of Large Industrial Agriculture Estate, Upper Parana

14. The camp is set on fire

15. Expulsion in Tekojoja, December 2004. Soya producers destroyed the local community’s fields

16. Soya monocultures are a green desert around the remaining small islands of forest, Soya Toledo, Nina Holland.

17. “Palm oil for biofuels increases social conflicts and undermines land reform in Indonesia… It is unavoidable that, as a consequence of Europe's biofuels policy, the land rights of indigenous peoples and local communities will be relinquished further, and that food security will be undermined and lands for agricultural purposes and subsistence livelihoods will diminish.” Sawit Watch Challenges Land Grab

18. Indigenous Penan people trying to stop industrial loggers from destroying their forest

19. Logging and palm oil expansion go hand in hand

20. Burning the rainforest to clear land for palm oil

21. South-east Asia’s peatlands hold up to 50 billion tonnes of carbon

22. Draining Borneo’s peat for plantations

23. Borneo ablaze: Annual peat fires pump billions of tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere

24. As ethanol pushes up the price of sugar cane, this rainforest in Uganda is to be sacrificed for sugar plantations

25. “It is a push by industry to make another scramble for Africa, grab the land and continue with business as usual. The industrial bio-energy push to increased bio-energy demand will be nothing other than an effort at extending the frontiers of neo-colonialism in its continued march on the back of the fabled market forces.” Protest against land grab: FoE Nigeria

26. In the past few months, the price of soya has started rising again, thanks to biofuels. And the Amazon is being cut down faster than before. NASA: Rate of Amazon destruction correlates with market price of Soya Amazon rainforest destroyed for soya

27. Burning the rainforest to clear land for soya plantations

28. Dry season fires are widespread along margin of Amazon. Fingers of cleared land typically form a “herringbone” pattern as they extend from roads

30. Germany is at capacity using 12% of arable land to achieve 1% transport fuel penetration Oil Seed Rape: clover/alfalfa – Red Kyte, Ortolan Bunting 60% Wetlands lost in N & W Europe 45% Butterflies 30% Reptiles Birds, Insects, Wildflowers EU Biodiversity Loss target (2010) EU Abolish Compulsory Set-asides from 2008 Rapeseed oil, Sugar Beet. Animal feed displaced to Argentina, Colombia, Brazil Agro-Biofuels in the EU

31. Plant Genomes Microbes Potentially significant micro-lifecycle gains but 5–10 yrs away Bottom Line: Micro vs. Macro Lifecycle GM Agrofuels

32. 40% increase in fuel efficiency via Hybridisation 10 – 20% through weight reduction 20 – 40% through smaller engines built for economy 10% through aerodynamics and low friction tyres 30% efficiency by reduced travel speeds, careful driving, correct tyre pressures, clean engine oil etc TOTAL = 110-140% efficiency = ½-¼ fuel = 13m barrels / day Pascala & Socolow achieve 24m b/d bioethanol = 17m b/d gas. Irony of Agrofuels

33. Gaia and non-linearity Currently: 383ppm CO2 450 ppm CO2e gives 30-60% risk of 2+C …Climate Tipping Point Climate Critical Data

34. RTFO Biofuels Plan – 5% EU Biofuels Plan – 5.75% / 10% US Renewable Fuels Standard – 20% China vast acerage planned India following suit Mitigation: EU Fuels Standards Quality Dir Certification = False Legitimisation … because macro-impacts cannot included State of Play

35. Land use change – deforestation Land Use Change – peat and soils Chemical Fertilisers – N2O emissions Acceleration of climate feedbacks Macro-Climate Impacts of Agrofuels

36. FoE Paraguay and Argentinian NGO’s calling for moratorium 250 NGO’s and prominent individuals calling for a halt on all biofuel targets Certification cannot deal with macro-climate impacts or displacement - wrong policy instrument Conclusion Monbiot: 5-year freeze on Agro-Biofuel targets