1 / 33

Climate Change 101

Climate Change 101. Dr. LuAnne Thompson Associate Professor, School of Oceanography Board member of Program on Climate Change, UW. The science of climate change: the IPCC The impacts climate change: global and regional Solutions: from personal to global. Outline.

cedric-reilly
Download Presentation

Climate Change 101

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Climate Change 101 Dr. LuAnne Thompson Associate Professor, School of Oceanography Board member of Program on Climate Change, UW

  2. The science of climate change: the IPCC The impacts climate change: global and regional Solutions: from personal to global Outline

  3. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 Under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environmental Program Summary for Policy Makers for Fourth Assessment Release February 7, 2007 www.ipcc.ch

  4. Main Findings of IPCC Warming of the climate system is unequivocal- changes seen in global average temperature, melting of snow and ice, rising sea level. IPCC 2007 Source: OSTP

  5. Clear correlation between CO2 and temperature • Current level of CO2 is outside bounds of natural variability • Rate of change of CO2 is also unprecedented Source: OSTP

  6. CO2 and temperature, 1000 AD to present Source: IPCC 2001

  7. Source: OSTP

  8. Main Findings of IPCC Most of the warming in globally averaged temperature is very likely due to the observed increase to anthropogenic green house gases. Observed vs. modeled temperature rise since 1860 IPCC

  9. Main Findings of IPCC Between 1900 and 2000, the earth has warmed by 1F. Global average temperature projected to increase 2-11.5°F by 2100. Half of uncertainty is climate sensitivity; half is GHG input (policy, tech)

  10. How long have we got? We have to stabilize emissions of carbon dioxide within a decade, or temperatures will warm by more than one degree. That will be warmer than it has been for half a million years, and many things could become unstoppable.…We don't have much time left.” Dr. James Hansen, Director, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. – The Independent 2/ 17/2006 “How far can it go? The last time the world was three degrees warmer than today – which is what we expect later this century – sea levels were 25m higher. So that is what we can look forward to if we don't act soon…I think sea-level rise is going to be the big issue soon, more even than warming itself…

  11. Projected Changes in Annual Temperatures for the 2050s The projected change is compared to the present day with a ~1% increase per year in equivalent CO2 Source: The Met Office. Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research

  12. Duration ofice cover on rivers and lakes has decreased by 2.5 weeks over the last century in mid- & high latitude areas Arctic sea ice loss in area (10 - 15%) and thickness (40%) over the last half century. Decline in snow cover (10%) for N hemisphere since 1960 World-wide retreat in alpine glaciers over last century Widespread changes in permafrost Physical signal: observed changes in ice and snow cover South Cascade Glacier, 1928 and 2000 IPCC

  13. Ocean Shores, WA Sea-Level Rise • Thermal expansion and glacier/icecap melting • 4 to 8 inches over the last century • IPCC projects 7 to 23 inches this century • Erodes beaches and wetlands, inundates low-lying areas

  14. Effects of global warming on water cycle 9/19 Washington Post: “Warning in the Winds” “Hurricanes are essentially heat engines, forming over warm ocean waters and gaining strength from the latent heat …. This released heat drives rapid updrafts that cause more water to evaporate from the ocean surface and form a self-reinforcing vortex of swirling clouds generating wind speeds, as in Hurricane Ivan's case, of up to 160 miles per hour.” Speeds up global water cycle Global warming More extreme weather events

  15. PNW trends, expected impacts Source for PNW impacts: UW Climate Impacts Group http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/

  16. Average Northwest warming, 2000-2100 Source: Mote, Salathé and Peacock 2005

  17. Effect on modeled Snake River streamflow an earlier peak decreased spring/summer flows increased winter flows Source: Mote ca. 2005

  18. For areas that accumulate snowpack, areas close to freezing in mid-winter are most sensitive to warming ~2050s +4°F, +4.5% winter precip

  19. Effect on Snoqualmie Pass ski industry days of operation per year 24 cm snow threshold 50 cm 80 cm current climate 2020’s (two different models) 2040’s (two different models) Source: Mote ca. 2005

  20. CO2 Emissions and Concentrations: The environment responds to concentrations; aggressive emission reduction needs to begin quickly IPCC

  21. Stabilization wedge options PCC slide no. 062 adapted from: Pacala & Socolow 2004

  22. GHG emissions induced by a U.S. household Source: Union of Concerned Scientists 1999

  23. Why a Northwesterner needs to think differently U.S. GHGs Washington GHGs Source: U.S. EPA 2005; Washington State 2004

  24. Two venues for action PERSONAL GHG CUTS POLICY REFORM • Vote • Financially support concerned organizations- Climate Solutions- Northwest Energy Coalition • Volunteer for concerned organizations- Door-to-door education- Legislative lobbying • Drive less- Carpool or use transit- Walk or bicycle- Combine errands- Telecommute • Drive a fuel-efficient car • Recycle • Reduce home energy use- CFLs- Energy Star appliances- Heat room-by-room- Minimize summer A/C • Purchase GHG offsets Source: Hammerschlag ca. 2005

  25. As of March 11, 2007, 418 US cities in 50 states, representing more than 60 million Americans support Kyoto after Mayor Greg Nickels of Seattle started a nationwide effort to get cities to agree to the protocol. City of Seattle

  26. Seattle Climate Partnership (REI, UW, Starbucks, etc.). Voluntary pact among Seattle Area Employers to take action to reduce their own emissions. Sims Global Warming initiative Commitment to reduce King County Emissions Development of adaptation strategies The UW has joined a national effort -- the American College & University Presidents Climate Commitment -- to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and become carbon-neutral. County, UW, Businesses

  27. February 26, 2007: Five Western governors agreed to cut their states' emissions Will establish a regional carbon-trading system allowing polluters to buy and sell greenhouse gas pollution credits. State

  28. Solutions: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change • Foundation of international efforts to combat global warming • Objective: “stabilize GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous human interference with the climate system” • Kyoto protocol sets binding limits: Ratified by over 100 nations; emission trading and markets are evolving rapidly

  29. Emission Reduction Profile to achieve 450 PPM

  30. Proposed bill, Britain will cut carbon emission by 60% cut by 2050, and introduce legally-binding carbon "budgets" Interim target of a 26% to 32% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions by 2020. Tony Blair and Great Britain

More Related