Evolution Toward Decision Support

1. Evolution Toward Decision Support BOSC Program Review September 26-28, 2005 Global Change Research Program

2. Evolution of decision support Decision support provides a link between information, tools, and decision making Our goal is to provide more effective and relevant decision support through the: • Collection of new data about decisions • Improved linkages between decision theory and decision support practice • Strategic allocation of resources between decisions

3. Advancing the science of decision support • Goal of assessment: To provide timely and useful information to decision makers • Lessons from previous assessments: Can’t presume that assessment will lead to better environmental outcomes • A goal of decision support: To engage in activities that lead to better informed management and policy decisions and to improve societal/environmental outcomes

4. Prevalence of decision support

5. Decision support disciplines

6. Challenges Diverse views on: • Definition of decision support • Components and scope of effective decision support • Approaches to providing decision support that best achieves informed management decisions and improved societal/environmental outcomes

7. Elements of decision support Program activities distinguish: • Understanding the concept of decision support • Application of decision support to specific problems or geographic areas Decision support concepts and theory Decision support development and applications

8. Goals & objectives Decision support links environmental information, analytical tools, and stakeholder needs. This contributes to: • The GCRP’s Long Term Goals of promoting adaptation to climate change • CCSP Strategic Planobjectives to develop decision support and encourage its transition from research to operational applications

9. Understanding

10. NRC Study of Decision Support Science Panel: Working under Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change Objectives: • elaborate a framework for climate-related decision support • assess the strengths and limitations of strategies, activities and tools • recommend strategies for organizing decision support activities Considerations: • effectiveness may depend on the characteristics of target sectors or decisions • best program structure may not be fully knowable in advance and may have to evolve to meet changing needs

11. Applications

12. Scope of decision support GCRP broadly defines decision support as: “…any model, method, or information set supporting learning, increasing scientific understanding, and, ultimately, promoting adaptive environmental outcomes.”

13. Decision support accomplishments Examples of the GCRP’s contributions: • Manager’s guide for coral reef ecosystems • WEAP model for the Sacramento River • WALTER planning environment for assessing and reducing exposure to wildfire risk • Modified DRASTIC index for evaluating risks to drinking water • Tools for managing riparian areas in the Maryland Piedmont Example

14. Managing riparian ecosystems • Fish are sensitive to both : • Climate: air temperature, precipitation intensity and frequency • Land use: impervious surface or tree cover • The GCRP collaborated with University of Maryland to provide key information for local decision makers (K. Nelson, J. Pizzuto, N. Bockstael, G. Moglen, M. Palmer)

15. Decision assessment Goal: Help identify decisions where targeted research and development are most likely to contribute to adaptive environmental outcomes. Focus: decisions sensitive to climate or important to determining the net effect of climate change Examples: • Design of flood control structures • Capacity of water treatment facilities • Management of water supply systems • Strategies for ecosystem restoration • Approaches to the detection and eradication of invasive species Need: systematic assessment of decisions

16. Decision assessment components Decision assessment includes research to: • Understand the characteristics of decisions • Identify climate-related decisions relevant to adaptation • Prioritize decision support resources Information Tools Decision attributes

17. First step: Decision inventory Build a foundation of data including: • Decision characteristics: cost, frequency, reversibility • Decision context: rules, regulations, dependencies, technology • Decision impacts: economic, organizational, environmental Decision assessment Decision inventory

18. Emissions Inventory Decision Inventory The U.S. Adaptive Decision Inventory Decision inventory products • Inventory of emissions sources • Foundation for mitigation policy • Inventory of adaptation decisions • Foundation for adaptation policy

19. Prioritization Decision assessment • The decision assessment will use information in the decision inventory to: • Identify and compare adaptive opportunities, including: decisions, decision makers, and specific locations • Prioritize the development of new decision support resources • Improve the effectiveness of decision support Decision inventory

20. Decision support outcomes Decision support will continue to be a part of the GCRP’s activities. Future work will encourage the: • Strategic allocation of resources between decisions • Improved linkages between decision theory and decision support practice • More effective and relevant decision support