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Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys Survey Design Workshop. Questionnaire for Individual Women: Child Mortality. Purpose. To measure infant and under-5 mortality rates To estimate the adolescent birth rate and early childbearing
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Multiple Indicator Cluster SurveysSurvey Design Workshop Questionnaire for Individual Women: Child Mortality MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Purpose • To measure infant and under-5 mortality rates • To estimate the adolescent birth rate and early childbearing • To determine if any live births within the last 2 years – whether the woman is eligible for the maternal and newborn health module MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Information Collected in the Module • Summary information on all live births, living and deceased children • Timing of first live birth • Timing of last live birth MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Goal 4 - MDG • Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and 2015, under-five mortality rate • MDG Indicator 4.1 – Under-5 Mortality Rate • MICS Indicator # 1.1 • MDG Indicator 4.2 – Infant Mortality Rate • MICS Indicator # 1.2 MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Estimation • Indirect estimation method used • Devised by William Brass in the late 1950s, commonly used in surveys and censuses around the world • Indirect estimation method, but gives reliable results usually consistent with direct estimation (direct estimation in surveys: use of birth or maternity histories) MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Estimation • Variants: By age of women, by time since first marriage, by time since first birth • The idea is to calculate average numbers of children ever born and children deceased, and calculate proportion deceased • Using proportion deceased and mortality models, estimate infant and under-5 mortality rates MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Estimation • Method will give biased estimates if fertility pattern changes dramatically over time • Results not as detailed as those from birth histories (neonatal rates etc) • Assumptions applicable to the country need to be used for correct estimation (e.g. choice of mortality model) MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Estimation • Estimated rates will refer to 3-6 years before the survey on the average, depending on the variant of the method used • The method provides estimates of mortality trends as retrospective estimates are obtained for a period of 3-15 years MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Pakistan Under-5 mortality rates – various sources MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Myanmar Under-5 Mortality Rates – Various sources Direct estimate from household survey 1991 Indirect estimate from 1983 census MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Input Data MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Estimates MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Resource person • An expert on mortality estimation/demographic estimation needed • MICS programme to produce methodological note on the estimation technique MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Reproductive health indicators • Adolescent birth rate (MDG Indicator 5.4) • Age-specific birth rate for women age 15-19 years • MICS Indicator # 5.1 • Early Childbearing • Proportion among women age 20-24 who had one or more live births before age 18 • MICS Indicator # 5.2 MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Adolescent birth rate • Normally, the indicator would be calculated by collecting information on all births during a given period preceding the survey, including dates of birth of each • MICS only collects information on the date of birth of the first and last live birth • However, the rate can be estimated MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Methodological issues • Sample size – low fertility rates among women age 15-19 • Estimation needs to be based on two pieces of missing information • Twin or multiple births during the 1 or 2 years prior to survey • Women who have had more than one delivery during the 1 or 2 years prior to survey MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Methodological issues • Both are relatively small in magnitude, and the rate can be estimated by applying a coefficient to the estimated “initial” rate from MICS data, based on overall level of fertility • Modeling work in progress • Including work on other approaches to estimation MICS4 Survey Design Workshop
Methodological note • Early childbearing • Denominator is set to women 20-24 to avoid truncation • Consistent with the definition of “child” – i.e. younger than age 18 • Possible to look at trends by calculating the indicator for older age groups MICS4 Survey Design Workshop