Annual Growth Survey – launch of new economic semester for 2012

1. Annual Growth Survey – launch of new economic semester for 2012

2. Background • AGS launches cycle of economic semester driving macroeconomic governance and coordination. • Next Steps include – Spring Council Conclusions, preparation of Stability and NRP, Country-specific Recommendations and national budget implementation. • Europe 2020 not overarching strategy, just 1 element. Dominant driver is economic governance – 6 pack agreed in October+ Euro Plus Pact through economic semester. • Panic over meltdown in the Euro area has lead to AGS package being brought forward to November 23 (from Jan then December), surprising even SPC and EMCO

3. AGS: main elements 23rd November Barroso launches new package: • Annual Growth Survey –launches 2012 economic semester • 2 New Regulations – to enforce sanctions/economic governance • New Green paper on Stability Bonds (Euro bonds) At the same time: Annex (not publicised!) 4.Progress Report on Europe 2020 5. Macroeconomic report 6. Draft Employment Report 7. Growth-friendly tax policies

4. Annual Growth Survey: 5 priorities • Main Message: • Austerity necessary but undermining growth, more nuanced approach 5 Key Priorities: 1) Pursuing differentiated growth-friendly fiscal consolidation 2) Restoring normal lending to the economy 3) Promoting growth and competiveness for today and tomorrow 4) Tackling unemployment and social consequences of the crisis 5) Modernising public administration

5. Key priorities: summary of measures 1.Pursuing differentiated growth-friendly fiscal consolidation: • more flexible approach to austerity, opening door to stimulus • growth-friendly investment: research/innovation/energy/employment services, • Modernising pension systems: raising retirement ages/private pensions • increasing revenue through efficient, effective and fairer tax: reducing exemptions/away from labour to environment, consumption (ie from income tax to vat/co2) + property, tackling tax evasion +undeclared work, EU Taxes - Financial Transactions Tax + Energy. 2. Restoring normal lending: facilitating bank’s recapitalisation, regulation +supervision, SME’s access to finance, new EU venture capital scheme. 3. Promoting growth and competiveness for today and tomorrow: boosting exports+liberalisation of key service areas in internal market.

6. Annual Growth Survey: 5 priorities 4. Tackling unemployment and the social consequences of the crisis: • job-rich recovery: wage restraint and activation/conditionality, mobility, reducing early retirement, business creation, facilitate development of green/social jobs direct job creation? • supporting mainly youth employment: apprenticeships/work experience, flexibilise LM, tackle skill gap, Youth Opportunities I. • protecting the vulnerable: • strengthening social protection as an automatic stabilizer by avoiding sudden withdrawals of past extensions of coverage and eligibility, • active inclusion (activation+affordable social services not Min Income • access to services – basic bank account, affordable housing/energy. 5. Modernising public administration: reducing regulation and admin burdens, inreasing digitilisation, speedy business creation

7. Progress Report on Europe 2020 • Insufficient progress on targets only education • Poverty Target – initially couldn’t calculate because use of different indicators, now 12 million or 25% + from spillover? • Poverty as bottleneck to growth – household disposable income has fallen, some rise in relative poverty and material deprivation but solutions are increasing consumer choice! • Poverty Platform – main progress on : Integration, Roma, Social Business Initiative, • Poverty reduction through Services (reduces poverty by 40% - OECD) : Recommendation on bank account, housing and liberalisation on energy market…

8. Some good news? • 1 of 5 priorities is social • Austerity should consider distributional impact • Deficit reduction by increasing tax revenue • Job-rich recovery with green and social jobs • Tackling youth unemployment + new initiative • Reinforce social protection as automatic stabilizer • Active Inclusion strategies - 2 pillars • Ensuring access to key services – financial, energy and affordable housing

9. Some concerns • Europe 2020 appears increasingly irrelevant? • Commitments to social protection as buffer but not adequacy or universal services • Increasing poverty seen as a bottleneck to growth/how to keep up consumption levels • Active Inclusion but not the 3 pillars, focus on liberalisation – increasing choice.. • Job-rich recovery and youth employment but not investing in creating quality jobs, or access for all • Increasing Tax – but not much fairer tax. • No mention of participation/stakeholders

10. EAPN Action: Next Steps Lobbying on AGS and new cycle • Press Release • Letter to December European Council – 8 December • EAPN Briefing and Analysis • Lobbying Commission and MS for better stakeholder engagement in NRP and new Social Reports Capacity building and preparation for new cycle • Briefing on AGS and new developments • Capacity building/exchange/tool kits for engagement at national level and preparation of shadow proposals for NRP • How we effectively lobby EU together?

11. Questions for debate • What are our key messages? • What can we do to lobby? • At national level • At EU level