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SEARCH Understanding Change: Priorities and Needs Matt Berman, John Walsh

SEARCH Understanding Change: Priorities and Needs Matt Berman, John Walsh. SEARCH Science Steering Committee Meeting, Arlington, VA 28 October 2008. State of Science and Policy Shift Since Publication of 2005 SEARCH Implementation Strategy.

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SEARCH Understanding Change: Priorities and Needs Matt Berman, John Walsh

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  1. SEARCH Understanding Change:Priorities and NeedsMatt Berman, John Walsh SEARCH Science Steering Committee Meeting, Arlington, VA 28 October 2008

  2. State of Science and Policy Shift Since Publication of 2005 SEARCH Implementation Strategy • Number 1 science question in 2005: Is arctic environment moving from a fluctuating state to a new warming state? No longer in dispute. • Question of the day is now: what do we do to address warming climate? • Understanding changing arctic system is critical to developing sound climate policy • Mitigation • Adaptation • What do we most need to know to serve policy needs?

  3. GCMs Underestimate Rate of Arctic Sea Ice Loss September Sea Ice Extent: IPCC 4th Assessment Model Runs vs. Observations • Will policy based on IPCC 4th Assessment be inadequate to meet climate policy goals? • Inaccurate initial conditions for model simulations? • Biased parameters? • Misunderstood feedback relationships? Adapted from Stroeve et al., 2007

  4. Biggest increase found in Arctic suggests arctic cause Is this another poorly understood arctic feedback to global climate? Atmospheric methane concentrations increased dramatically in 2007

  5. What are the causes? What are the consequences for arctic communities? Arctic sea level rising faster than global average in IPCC 4th Assessment Report Proshutinsky et al., 2008

  6. Nicolson and Russell, unpublished data Need for integrated analysis of changes in physical environment, vegetation change, and ecosystem dynamics Relative herd sizes of world wild Rangifer herds with 3 and 6 year running averages. Warming climate associated with increasing herds in 1980s and 1990s, but most herds decreasing after 2000.

  7. What are the causes? How will people adapt to cumulative effects of climate change and mitigation policy, which is certain to raise living costs in the Arctic? Over 400 new Alaska Native students moved into the Anchorage public schools in 2008, twice the number in any previous year Anchorage Schools watching rural-to-urban student influx Mon, September 29, 2008 Posted in Alaska News Last month Anchorage School District administrators predicted the deteriorating economy of bush Alaska would produce a migration of rural families to urban Alaska, especially Anchorage. That prediction has proven more accurate than expected. Len Anderson, KSKA - Anchorage

  8. State of SEARCH Understanding Change research • “Back of the envelope” assessment of progress of “understanding change” activities under each driving question in SEARCH Implementation Plan (P = Priority/Phasing in Implementation Plan) 2) Use this assessment to identify major needs/gaps in the “understanding change” component of SEARCH

  9. 1.Is the Arctic system moving to a new state? • Integrative Data Assimilation for the Arctic System  gridded databases for detection and attribution of change P1 • Observing System Sensitivity Experiments to guide post-IPY AON P1 • Synthesize human dimensions data on pan-Arctic scale P1 -- two data assimilation projects; some HD synthesis via SYNICE, ELOKA

  10. 2.To what extent is the Arctic system predictable? • Coordinated sets of model experiments targeted at understanding recent changes and reducing uncertainties in projected changes P2 • Experiments with linked social-ecological models to assess ecosystem predictability and inform adaptation planning P2 • Integrate climate and weather datasets for predictive applications P3 -- broad-view predictability/uncertainty activity limited, at best

  11. 3.To what extent can recent and ongoing Arctic changes be attributed to anthropogenic forcing? • Controlled experiments and sensitivity tests with updated models, with varying GHG levels , aerosols, land use, … P1 • Integrate observations of terrestrial, marine and atmospheric variables into databases suitable for integrated (cross-component) diagnostic assessments of change P2 -- controlled experiments/sensitivity tests not apparent; -- importance of integrated databases recognized; CADIS

  12. 4. What is the direction and relative importance of system feedbacks? • Improve and expand capabilities of models used for Arctic simulations by enhancing formulations of key Arctic processes (e.g., vegetative, hydrologic, ocean/ice interaction, clouds,…) P2 -- many projects addressing specific linkages that can contribute to feedbacks; holistic approach to feedbacks not yet emergent

  13. 5. How are terrestrial and marine ecosystems and ecosystem services affected by environmental change and human activities? • Synthesize information and modeling of ecosystem components and their interactions, including freshwater fluxes, resource harvests and other human activities P2 • Develop an understanding of how to scale process and mechanistic knowledge in space and time P2 -- many projects on monitoring components of ecosystems and linkages within ecosystems; integrated approach less apparent (CEON?) -- some projects addressing scaling at component/scale; ARC scaling report

  14. 6. How do cultural and socioeconomic systems interact with Arctic environmental change? • Develop socioeconomic models incorporating ecosystem services; qualitative and quantitative research on resilience of socio-economic systems P1 -- several projects addressing state of Arctic human environment; socioeconomic modeling, ecosystem services, resilience much less apparent

  15. 7. What are the most consequential links between the Arctic and the earth systems? • Conduct controlled model experiments to understand global-arctic linkages, focusing on key physical linkages such as sea level, hydrologic changes in North Atlantic, trace gas fluxes, etc. P2 -- some measurements directed at Arctic-global connections (e.g., Bering Strait); otherwise little on Arctic-global connection, especially in modeling

  16. What seem to be the major needs? • Connection to needs of planners and policymakers -- What do they really need? -- Is SEARCH headed in a direction that will meet these needs? • Integrated assessment of uncertainties -- What are the major uncertainties -- impediments to understanding, prediction -- in the trajectory of the Arctic system? -- How will these uncertainties impact uses of information?

  17. What seem to be the major needs? • System framework for assessing feedbacks, major uncertainties • How to link interactions of atmosphere, ocean, land? • How to integrate physical, biological, and human systems? • Connections between the Arctic and the global system • Predictability assessments

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