Katia Simeonova, Manager UN Climate Change Secretariat

1. Guidelines for the preparation of the fifth national communication under the UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol Katia Simeonova, Manager UN Climate Change Secretariat

2. Mandate and overview • Submission of the NC5 by 1 January 2010, including information under Article 7, paragraph 2, of the Kyoto Protocol (decisions 10/CP.13 and 8/CMP.3) • The UNFCCC reporting guidelines (decision 4/CP.5) • Reporting requirements under other decisions • Reporting guidelines under Article 7, paragraph 2, of the Kyoto Protocol (decision 15/CMP.1) • Main challenges for a complete and transparent reporting

3. The UNFCCC reporting guidelines

4. National Circumstances • Parties shall provide a description of their national circumstances, how national circumstances affect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and removals, and how national circumstances and changes in national circumstances affect greenhouse gas emissions and removals over time • Information that best describes the national circumstances and historic trends, including disaggregated indicators • To improve comparability, two sets of information are required • Generic information: government structure, population, geographic, climate and economic profiles • Sector specific information together with examples of the key drivers: energy, transportation, industry, waste, building stock and urban structure, agriculture, forest and others

5. GHG Inventory • Parties shall provide summary information on GHG inventory, prepared according to the reporting guidelines on annual inventories • Time period: from 1990 (or base year) to the last but one year prior to the year of NC submission • GHG inventory information in the NC5 should be consistent with the submission of the annual inventory information in the year when the NC is submitted, and any differences should be clearly explained • A complete inventory data set is not required (already in the NIR) • At a minimum, Parties shall provide the summary, including in CO2 eq. and emission trend tables given in the CRF (in annex to the NC5) • In the main text of the NC: descriptive summary and diagrams of GHGs

6. Policies and measures (1) • In accordance with Article 12.2 Parties shall provide a detailed description on PaMs adopted under Article 4.2(a) and (b), and provide specific estimates of their effects on GHG • These PaMs need not have the limitation or reduction of GHG emissions and removals as a primary objective

7. Policies and measures (2) • Which PaMs are to be reported in the NCs • Parties should give priority to PaMs, which are: • the most significant in terms of their impact on GHG mitigation; • innovative and/or effectively replicable by other Parties; • Implemented, adopted and planned. • Reported PaMs should be: • at national, state, provincial, regional and local levels; • in the context of regional or international efforts; • PAMs on international transport emissions to be reported in the transport sector. • Parties should report on policies and practices pursuant to Article 4.2 (e) (ii), i.e. those that lead to greater levels of GHG emissions

8. Policies and measures (3) • Structure of the PaMs sections • Description of PaMs by sector and by gas; • list of sectors: energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management, as well as cross-sectoral PaMs • Reference to previous NC for PaMs maintained over time (continuity is important) • Possibility for a presentation of the aggregated effect of PaMs for several complementary measures • Policy making process • Description of the overall policy context, national GHG targets, strategies for sustainable development, inter-ministerial decision-making process/bodies • description of the monitoring and evaluation of PaMs over time

9. Policies and measures (4) • Policies and measures and their effect • The presentation of information shall include • name and a short description of the PaMs • objectives of the PaMs • affected gases • type, or types of PaMs • status of implementation • implementing entity • It should also include, as appropriate: a quantitative estimate of the effects of individual PaMs, or collections of PaMs • It may include information • on the costs of PaMs • on non-GHG mitigation benefit • how the policy interacts with other PaMs

10. Policies and measures (5) • Parties shall provide information on how they believe PaMs are modifying longer term trends • Policies and measures no longer in place • Summary table of PaMs: • Each sector shall have its own textual description, supplemented by table 1 • Link between reporting on PaMs and projections (and past GHG emission trends), important to extend the table with new years: 2010, 2015 and 2020

11. Projections and the total PaMs effect(1) • Purpose • …to give an indication of future trends in GHG emissions and removals, based on the implemented and adopted PaMs, and to give an indication of the path of emissions and removals without such PaMs… • Scenarios • Parties shall report at a minimum “with measures” (WM) scenarios and may report “with additional measures” (WAM) and “without measures” (WOM) scenarios

12. Projections and the total PaMs effect(2) • Consistency between projections and inventory data • WM and WAM starting point: last year of inventory data (i.e. 2007 for NC5) • WOM starting point: 1995 or an earlier year such as 1990 or another base year • Coverage • Reporting by sector, consistent with sectors in the PaMs section (energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste management) • All six gases, also precursors and SO2; by sector and totals using GWP • Separate reporting on projections on international bunker fuel • Timing: 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020; estimates for 2030 strongly encouraged; see sample diagram: fig.1

13. Projections and the total PaMs effect(3)

14. Projections and the total PaMs effect(4) • Assessment of aggregated effect of PaMs, orwhy a “without measures” scenario is important • Effects of individual PaMs are to be reported in the PaMs section, total effects are to be reported in the projections section • Parties shall present the estimated and expected total effect of implemented and adopted PaMs • What types of estimates: ex-post (for 1995, 2000, 2005) and ex-ante (for 2010, 2015 and 2020; estimates for 2030 strongly encouraged) • How to report (estimate) the total effect of PaMs • Total effect as a difference between “with measures“ and “without measures” scenario • Total effects as an aggregation of individual effect of each significant policy and measure

15. Projections and the total PaMs effect(5) • Methodology • Description of the model to allow the reader a basic understanding of the approach, and its attributes: • Gases and sectors covered • Type of model, its original purpose and any modifications • Strengths and weaknesses of the model • Accounting for overlap and synergies between PaMs • Key assumptions and differences in assumptions between the current NC and the previous NC • Sensitivity of projections to key assumptions (summary Table 2 of the guidelines) • Parties shall present relevant information on factors and activities for each sector

16. Vulnerability assessment, climate change impacts and adaptation measures • Article 4.1(b) and (e): All Parties shall: • Formulate, implement …programmes containing measures to facilitate adaptation to climate change • Cooperate in preparing for adaptation… •  V&A REPORTING includes 3 elements: • ASSESSMENTS – ACTION – [COOPERATION]

17. Financial resources and transfer of technology (1) • Annex II Parties shall provide details of measures taken to give effect to their commitments under Article 4.3 (financial resources), Article 4.4 (assistance in meeting costs of adaptation), and Article 4.5 (transfer of technologies) • Annex II Parties shall complete tables on financial contributions (related to the implementation of the Convention): • Indicate the “new and additional”financial resources provided, including to the Global Environment Facility (GEF) (table 3) • To developing country Parties that are particularly vulnerable (table 5) • To multilateral institutions and programmes (table 4) • To bilateral and regional financial contributions (table 5, both on mitigation (by sector) and adaptation (capacity building, coastal zone management, other vulnerability assessments)

18. Financial resources and transfer of technology (2) • Annex II Parties shall provide information on technology transfer and distinguish between the public and private sector activities • Annex II Parties shall, where feasible, report activities related to technology transfer, both in textual and tabular format • Fact sheets on selected projects and programmesthat promoted practicable steps to facilitate and/or finance the transfer of, or access to, environmentally-sound technologies (format table 6) • Parties shall report activities related to technology transfer including on the access to “hard” and “soft” technologies • Parties shall report activities related to capacity building

19. Research and systematic observation (1) • Parties shall report in summary form on action relating to research and systematic observation (not results from the research) • Domestic and international activities (WCP, IGBP, GCOS and IPCC) and support for capacity building • Information on GCOS, following a separate guidelines • General policy on and funding of research and systematic observation; and opportunities and barriers for data exchange

20. Research and systematic observation (2) • On research: information on highlights, innovations and significant efforts made with regard to: (a) Climate process and climate system studies, including paleoclimate studies; (b) Modelling and prediction, including general circulation models; (c) Research on the impacts of climate change; (d) Socio-economic analysis, including analysis of both the impacts of climate change and response options; (e) Research and development on mitigation and adaptation technologies

21. Research and systematic observation (3) • On systematic observation: summary information on status of national plans, programmes and support for ground- and space-based climate observing systems and on global climate observing system (GCOS) activities in: • Atmospheric climate observing systems, including those measuring atmospheric constituents; • Ocean climate observing systems; • Terrestrial climate observing systems; • Support for developing countries to establish and maintain observing systems, and related data and monitoring systems • Detailed guidance provided in the UNFCCC reporting guidelines on GCOS (contained in FCCC/CP/1997/7, pages 101-108)

22. Education, training and public awareness • In accordance with Articles 4.1(i), 6 and 12.1(b), Annex I Parties shallcommunicate information on their actions relating to education, training and public awareness (ETP) • Parties should report, inter alia, on • General policy towards ETP • Public information and education materials • Resource or information centres • Training programmes, and • Participation in international activities • Parties may report on the extent of public participation in the preparation or domestic review of the national communication

23. Reporting requirements under other decisions

24. New Delhi Work Programme on Article 6 • Decision 11/CP.8: As part of their national programmes to implement the Convention (…), Parties are encouraged to undertake activities under the following categories • International cooperation • Education • Training • Public awareness • Public participation and • Public access to information • All Parties are requested to prepare reports (within their NCs, where possible) on their efforts to implement the work programme (for the purpose of reviewing the programme in 2004 and 2007)

25. Capacity Building • Decision 2/CP.10 “Capacity-building for developing countries (non-Annex I Parties)” Parties are encouraged to further improve the implementation of capacity-building activities (…), and to report on the effectiveness and sustainability of capacity-building programmes in their national communications and other relevant documents • Decision 2/CP.7 “Capacity-building in developing countries (non-Annex I Parties)” Parties are invited to provide information through national communications and other reports to enable the SBI to monitor progress in the implementation of this framework • Decision 3/CP.7 “Capacity-building in countries with economies in transition” Annex II Parties and Parties with economies in transition are invited to provide information to enable the COP and the SBs to monitor progress in the implementation of this framework, consistent with guidelines for the preparation of national communications

26. Adaptation and response measures • Decision 5/CP.7 “Implementation of Article 4, paragraph 8 and 9, of the Convention (decision 3/CP.3 and Article 2, paragraph 3, and Article 3, paragraph 14, of the Kyoto Protocol)” Annex II Parties are requested to provide detailed information, in their national communications and/or any other relevant reports, on their existing and planned support programmes to meet the specific needs and concerns of developing country Parties arising from the impact of the implementation of response measures • Decision 1/CP.10 “Buenos Aires programme of work on adaptation and response measures” Annex II Parties are requested to provide detailed information, including in their national communications, on progress made on support programmes to meet the specific needs and circumstances of developing country Parties arising from the adverse effects of climate change; (…) and from the impact of the implementation of response measures

27. Reporting guidelines under Article 7, paragraph 2 of the Kyoto Protocol

28. General approach • Each Annex I Party shall include the necessary supplementary information … to demonstrate compliance with the commitments under the Protocol in its NC submitted under Article 12 of the Convention, within the timeframe under the Protocol and in line with COP and CMP decisions • Implications: reporting guidelines under the Convention form a significant part of the reporting guidelines under the Kyoto Protocol

29. National systems in accordance with Article 5, paragraph 1 • Each Party .. shall provide description of how it is performing the general and specific functions of the national system under Article 5, paragraph 1, including • The name and contact details of the national entity • The roles and responsibilities of various agencies • A description of data collection, emission factors and methods • Description of the process for recalculation • QA/QC plan • Procedures for official consideration and approval of inventory • Explanation on which functions are not performed (not fully performed) and action to fix the problem

30. National registry • Each Party .. shall provide description of how it is national registry performs functions defines in the annexes to decisions 13/CMP.1 and 5/CMP.1, and conformity with DES: • The name and contact information of the registry administrator • The names of other Parties with which the Party co-operates on registries • How the national registry conforms with the DES • Procedures to minimize discrepancies and steps to terminate transactions where discrepancy is notified and to correct the problem in case of failure to terminate transaction • Overview of security measures • List of the information publicly accessible • The internet address of the interface to its national registry • Measures to safeguard, maintain and recover data in an event of disaster • The results of any test procedures

31. Supplementarity relating to mechanisms under Article 6, 12 and 17 • Each Annex I Party shall provide information on how its use of the mechanisms is supplemental to domestic action, and how its domestic action thus constitutes a significant element of the effort made to meet its quantified limitation and reduction commitments under Article 3, paragraph 1, in accordance with the provisions of decision 5/CP.6 • Implications on compliance

32. Policies and measures in accordance with Article 2 • Each Annex I Party shall specifically address PaMs implemented and/or further elaborated as well as cooperation with other such Parties in achieving its quantified emission limitation and reduction commitment under Article 3, in order to promote sustainable development • On aviation and marine bunker fuels, each Annex I Party shall, in pursuit of Article 2, paragraph 2, of the Protocol, identify the steps it has taken to promote and/or implement any decisions by ICAO and IMO to limit or reduce associated emissions • Each Annex I Party shall also provide information on how it strives to implement policies and measures under Article 2 of the Kyoto Protocol in such a way as to minimize adverse effects, including the adverse effects of climate change, effects on international trade, and social, environmental and economic impacts on other Parties, especially developing country Parties under Article 4, paragraphs 8 and 9, of the Convention, taking into account Article 3 of the Convention

33. Domestic and regional programmes and/or legislative arrangements and enforcement and administrative procedures • Each Annex I Party shall report any relevant information on its domestic and regional legislative arrangements and enforcement and administrative procedures, established pursuant to the implementation of the Kyoto Protocol, according to its national circumstances • How they are implemented • Information on these procedures being publicly available • Institutional arrangements on Kyoto mechanisms • Each Annex I Party shall provide a description of any national legislative arrangements and administrative procedures that seek to ensure that the implementation of activities under Article 3, paragraph 3, and any elected activities under Article 3, paragraph 4, also contributes to the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of natural resources

34. Information under Article 10 • Each Annex I Party shall report its activities, actions and programmes undertaken in fulfillment of its commitments under Article 10. • Each Annex I Party shall report on the steps it has taken to promote, facilitate and finance the transfer of technology to developing countries and to build their capacity, taking into account Article 4, paragraphs 3, 5 and 7, of the Convention in order to facilitate the implementation of Article 10 of the Kyoto Protocol.

35. Financial resources • Each Annex II Party shall provide information on the implementation of Article 11 of the Kyoto Protocol, in particular information on what new and additional financial resources have been provided, in what way these resources are new and additional, and how that Party has taken into account the need for adequacy and predictability in the flow of these resources. • Each Annex II Party shall provide information on its contribution to the entity or entities entrusted with the operation of the financial mechanism. • Any Annex I Party that has provided funding for the adaptation fund established in accordance with decision 10/CP.7 shall report on its financial contributions to this fund. In doing so, the Party shall take into account the information reported in accordance with paragraph 6 of decision 10/CP.7.

36. Main challenges for a complete and transparent reporting

37. National circumstances: findings • All reporting Parties provided information on their national circumstances and most of them, when explaining the relationship between national circumstances and GHG emissions or removals, used demographic, economic and energy-related indicators (e.g. population size, gross domestic product (GDP), total primary energy supply (TPES)) that significantly affect GHG emissions on their territories • Government structure, geographic and climate profiles were generally described in qualitative terms • Sector-specific information on activities in transport, industry, waste, agriculture and forestry was frequently included in the section on national circumstances as well as under the section on policies and measures • Information on building stock and urban structure was also provided by some Parties, mostly in conjunction with the energy and transport sectors • Relationships between national circumstances and emission trends were usually described in qualitative terms, except for some cases such as Canada’s quantitative assessment of the link between population and emissions growth • Parties also provided information on their governmental structure and distribution of responsibilities for climate and climate-related policies.

38. National circumstances: recommendations • Need to enhance reporting on the effects of the main drivers relevant to GHG emission trends (using e.g. structural analysis) a common theme for the two topics • Need to ensure concise, yet complete and transparent reporting on the national circumstances as a basis for reporting in the subsequent sections of the NC (compile list?) • Comparable way of reporting on key parameters and drivers, such as GDP, energy supply and demand; using IEA/OECD data and categorization as an option (compile list?) • Consistency in reporting on GHG trends in NCs, in annual NIRs and CRF files; any differences in data to be explained; need for more information and analysis on drivers for emission trends

39. Policies and measures: findings • The reported policies and measures covered a wide range of planned, adopted and/or implemented activities • Many of policies were not introduced solely for climate change objectives, yet are contributing to GHG mitigation • Policies and measures were designed and implemented at all levels of government regional, national, state/provincial and municipal • Quantitative estimates of the mitigation effects of policies and measures are rarely reported in the NC4 • Even when they are reported, estimates are not necessarily consistent among Parties, in terms of categorization, baseline assumptions modelling procedures and methodological approaches to account for policy synergies and interactions

40. Policies and measures: completeness • Need for complete and comprehensive reporting on • Some attributes of the PaMs, especially on the cost and mitigation effects usually missing in the previous NC, on type of policy instrument • Implementation status of PaMs, co-benefits, interaction with other policies and continuity with PaMs reported in the NC3 • Kyoto mechanisms and issues related to the Marrakesh Accords, e.g. decision 22/CP.7 (supplementarity, sustainable development, ICAO/IMO, adverse effects) • Comprehensive reporting on PaMs (and effects) at the national level and reporting on PaMs (and effects) at provinces/states level as examples • Need for consistency of information between the three related sections in the NC: inventory, PaMs and projections (sectors, time-line)

41. Policies and measures:Estimates of effect and cost • Need for a robust reference (BAU) to estimate effects from individual PaMs and collections of PaMs • Quantitative estimates of effects for some sectors and gases could be difficult (agriculture and fluorinated gases); also, estimates of short-term effects from long-term measures (R&D on technology) • Reconcile differences between the estimates of effects from individual PaMs (PaMs section) and the total effect from PaMs (projections section): different models or single model and modelling frameworks • Estimates of cost and different cost concepts

42. Projections: findings • 39 Parties reported GHG projections under the mandatory ‘with measures’ scenario, 22 Parties reported ‘with additional measures’ scenario and 16 Parties –‘without measures’ scenario • Most Parties (30 of 39) have projected their GHG emissions until 2020; one Party – until 2025; 3 Parties – until 2030; and 5 Parties – until 2010 only • For a number of Parties, projections at a sectoral levels are either not available, or available for few sectors only (e.g. Iceland, the Russian Federation, Spain, the United States) • For 1990, these sectoral totals are also not fully consistent with the sectoral data provided in the chapter on GHG trends, where emissions from all Annex I Parties were included • Only five Annex I Parties (the Czech Republic, Denmark, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Switzerland) have reported projections of GHG emissions from fuels sold for use in aviation and shipping • Total effect from PaMs estimated only by 16 Parties which provided a ‘without • measures’ scenario, through a comparison of ‘without measures’ and ‘with measures’ scenarios.

43. Projections (1) • Increased importance of projections, especially when the KP enters into force • Need for clear and transparent description of methods, assumptions, explanations of key drivers and their impacts on projections results • Need for more uniform reporting, while approaches and tools for projections likely to remain non-uniform (template from the projections workshop) • Need for consistent definition of scenarios (2 or 3 scenarios), PaMs in each scenario clearly defined • Modelling of effects from PaMs increasingly complex, need to reflect better new policy instruments, and the mix of ET and the existing instruments

44. Projections (2) • Institutional arrangement deemed important given the cross disciplinary nature of the task • Choice of methods and methodological approaches • Approach that best fit national circumstances • Integration of cross-country factors (neighbouring countries, electricity import/export) • Uncertainty assessment (sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation techniques) • Comparability in reporting: example of table for reporting results from the projections workshop, dissemination of methods by the UNFCCC

45. Projections (3) • Energy, transport, industry and waste • Key source analysis from GHG inventory to inform projections • Modelling emission trading and project based mechanisms increasingly important • Emissions from transport shown separately (specialized models for transport with simulation of different transport modes) • Model spill-over effects of PaMs on non-Annex I Parties • Agriculture and LULUCF • Key source analysis: presentation on main drivers • IPCC Good Practice Guidance: improve inventory and hence projections • Recommendation for specialized models (focus on goodscientific practices) • Appropriate emission factor that may not remain constant over time in future • Timeframe for projections (10 years) • Forestry projections well established; LULUCF projections challenging

46. Financial resources and technology transfer • Separation of mitigation and adaptation component from the overall financial contribution remained challenging (lack of clear and uniform criteria) • Reporting on some additional categories for adaptation, such as water supply and disaster preparedness • Reporting on “new and additional” resources and the use of the OECD/DAC “Rio Marker” system • Use of information from existing data bases: UNCCD, UNCBD and Ramsar Convention • Reporting on technology transfer that occurs through private sector channels remains a major issue: UNCTAD reports

47. Further information • UNFCCC reporting guidelines: FCCC/CP/1999/7 • Kyoto Protocol reporting guidelines: FCCC/KP/CMP/2005/8/Add.2 – decision 15/CMP.1 • UNFCCC Compilation and synthesis reports: FCCC/SBI/2007/INF.6 and 7, and the addenda • Secretariat is preparing a WEB page on the preparation of the NC5 • Materials from the workshop held in Dublin on 30 September – 1 October 2004 are available: http://unfccc.int/meetings/workshops/other_meetings/items/2927.php • Workshop report is contained in document: FCCC/SBI/2004/INF.10 http://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2004/sbi/inf14.pdf • Further information on the OECD publication “Aid Activities Targeting the Objectives of the Rio Conventions 1998-2000” can be found at: http://www.oecd.org/document/6/0,2340,en_2649_37425_1944454_1_1_1_37425,00.html

48. http://unfccc.int