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Donal Garvey, Director General, CSO, Palermo, 12 November 2004

Statistical Indicators for Broad Policy Purposes in Ireland - Developing the Consensus between Statistics and Politics. Donal Garvey, Director General, CSO, Palermo, 12 November 2004. Presentation Describes.

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Donal Garvey, Director General, CSO, Palermo, 12 November 2004

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  1. Statistical Indicators for Broad Policy Purposes in Ireland- Developing the Consensus between Statistics and Politics Donal Garvey, Director General, CSO, Palermo, 12 November 2004

  2. Presentation Describes • Institutional and political environment in Ireland supporting moves towards evidence based policy making • institutional environment for statistics • Social Partnership since the mid 1980s • networking capability in a small country • “Measuring Ireland’s Progress” (December 2003)

  3. Conclude With Some Discussion Items • Role of NSIs in informing the policy debate • sure-footed and pro-active? • cautious and reactive? • Importance of statistical networking - indicators fairly new territory for all of us • Risks to the statistical system • What does society expect of a good NSI?

  4. Institutional Environment for Statistics in Ireland • Pre 1949 • Statistics Division in Ministry for Industry & Commerce • Operating under the Statistics Act, 1926 • 1949 • Establishment of CSO under the aegis of the Taoiseach (Prime Minister) • Debate in Parliament agreed on the need for an Office independent of the influence of any Minister • Statistics Act, 1993 (operational from 1994)

  5. Statistics Act, 1993 • Underpinned legally the independence of the D-G • professional methodology and statistical standards • content of CSO publications • timing and method of dissemination • Formally constituted National Statistics Board (NSB) • small, advisory board • very active • highly influential people

  6. Membership of the NSB • 3 official members - an Assistant Secretary General in Department of the Taoiseach and Department of Finance and the D-G of the CSO ex-officio • 3 nominees from users/providers of official statistics • Irish Congress of Trade Unions (ICTU) • Irish Business & Employees Federation (IBEC) • farming organisations • 2 others nominated by the Taoiseach - including Professor of Economics who chairs the Board

  7. Economic Challenges in Ireland in 1980’s • Unemployment 10% 1981 17% mid 1980’s • Adversarial industrial relations - huge loss of work days in industrial disputes • Government debt increasing rapidly • Very high outward migration • Sense of national crisis • Discussions in the National Economic & Social Council (NESC) • Strategy for Development 1986-1990 (NESC)

  8. Emergence of Social Partnership Model in 1987 • 6 three-year Social Partnership Agreements • First 3 focussed mainly on unemploymentnegotiated by Government, ICTU, IBEC, farmers • Subsequent agreements also dealt with distribution issues (taxation, welfare) and social inclusionThese negotiations also involved groups with a focus on women’s issues and groups representing the disadvantaged working to counter social exclusion

  9. Networking Links • Some NSB members are heavily involved in the discussions at the NESC and Social Partnership • Particularly important is the role of the Taoiseach’s Department in chairing the discussions in both fora The statistical implications of emerging policy can be raised both formally and informally in the NSB - and the CSO is aware of (and can influence) developments

  10. Social Partnership (SP) and Statistics • As the negotiated areas of public policy widened, participants in the SP process began to realise they needed to track the outcomes for society • NESC published 2 reports in 2002 on statistical indicators • one proposed 20 headline and 60 background indicators to benchmark progress on the Programme for Prosperity and Fairness (SP 2000-2002) • the other 18 headline and 12 background indicators in the context of sustainable development Sustaining Progress 2003 contained a number of references to the CSO including a specific request to develop a set of national progress indicators

  11. NSB and Indicators • NSB had been developing its Strategy for Statistics, 2003-2008 • Strong role for CSO supporting evidence based policy making • NSB concerns that a proliferation of indicators (some possibly sub-optimal) could result in a misallocation of the statistics budget but more importantly large programme budgets • 2003 NSB report Developing Irish Social and Equality Statistics to meet Policy Needs and a Government agreement that CSO should publish a national progress indicators report by end-2003

  12. CSO Approach • Government and key stakeholder requests for a set of national progress indicators. CSO had informed these requests • Manageable set of indicators with minimal text (volume 1) - professional, independent and balanced- public confidence • Inform and educate users on the national and international context around the statistical indicators debate (volume 2) • Avoid detailed advance consultations - role of first report to be clearly flagged as a public consultation document

  13. Conceptual Framework (Volume 2) • National Progress Indicators: provide a high level analysis of the economic, social and environmental situation in Ireland, intended to provide a context for broad discussions with the social partners and society generally • Decided to structure the selected indicators within the broad “Domains” of policy interest and by “Themes” within those domains • In 12 appendices, information was provided on the domains, themes and indicators used or proposed by 4 Irish, 5 international body and 3 other country (ONS, CBS Netherlands and the ABS) reports

  14. Domains Used • 10 Domains were selected • Economy • Innovation & Technology • Employment & Unemployment • Social Cohesion • Education • Ultimately 108 indicators were grouped within 48 themes within these domains • Health • Population • Housing • Crime • Environment

  15. Criteria for Selecting Indicators • The European Commission has identified criteria for assessing the quality of indicators • Easy to read and understand • Policy relevant • Mutually consistent • Timely availability • Comparable across countries • Reliable sources

  16. Benchmarking It was decided, in so far as it was achievable, to prepare the indicators in both a national and international context • National Context • longer timespan • regional breakdown • International Context: the 25 EU Member States Within this broad frame of guidance, experienced subject matter statisticians within the CSO signed off on the indicators

  17. Release Strategy • Maximise buy-in across a broad sweep of society • Launched by the Taoiseach and D-G of the CSO • Pre-Christmas social partnership function (well attended) • influential people from stakeholder organisations • senior people from policy departments • A typical CSO press release - balance around “good progress” and “poor progress” indicators Stressed that the document was intended as a kind of public consultation - with feedback welcomed

  18. Reaction and Feedback • Very positive and widespread media reaction • Substantial newspaper articles by economic and social commentators • Referred to in parliamentary debate • Used by participants in social partnership process Formal feedback • repeat on an annual basis • similar reports for regions/counties • comparable international data appreciated

  19. Key Outcomes for Society Published • No controversy • Transparency • UN Principles • Measured • Evaluated • Benchmarked • Which are they? • How are they defined? Maximum public trust and confidence Strong NSI role “Honest Broker”

  20. NSI “Quality Mark” No debate on unemployment rate or CPI with disaggregations How about • Hospital waiting time • by medical procedure • by region or health area • Literacy level with disaggregations What will society expect of the NSI?

  21. Challenge for NSIs • Prepared to be pro-active in informing key outcomes for society • Statistical indicators to support evidence based policy making • UN fundamental principles NSI “approved” administrative data • no Ministerial influence in context/timing of statistics • recent example: crime statistics OECD etc. discussions to support these developments

  22. Risks for NSIs • Political sensitivities when statistical indicators are used as performance measures to monitor service delivery efficiency • Political instincts to publish only positive indicators? • NSI role must not become a Comptroller and Auditor General type role! • Could envisage behaviours to “improve” the indicator while perhaps “disimproving” the service delivery

  23. Thank You

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