Contact Information: Dr. Howard J. Singer, Chief Research and Development Division

1. Contact Information: Dr. Howard J. Singer, Chief Research and Development Division NOAA Space Environment Center 325 Broadway Boulder, CO 80305 303-497-6959 303-497-5388 howard.singer@noaa.gov Background Aurora Photo of Boulder Flatirons and NCAR by: Stan Solomon/NCAR HAO SMH 10/11/2001

2. Supporting Space Weather Users with the Space Environment Monitor (SEM) and Solar Imaging on GOES-R H. J. Singer, NOAA Space Envrionment Center • Outline: • Space Weather • SEC and NOAA Mission Goals • SEM: GOES 8-12 to GOES R • SEM Users • The Future GOES 8-12 GOES NOP Third GOES-R Users’ Conference Broomfield, CO May 11, 2004 SMH 10/11/2001 Photo: NCAR Stan Solomon

3. Space Weather: Sun to Earth A NASA animation of a space weather event as it starts at the sun and ends up at Earth • Solar Flare • Light and X-Rays • Particles • Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) • Particles and Fields • Magnetosphere • Deflects the solar wind • Energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere when interplanetary field opposite direction of Earth’s field • Accelerates particles • Ionosphere • Accelerated particles collide with the atmosphere producing the aurora SMH 10/11/2001

4. Space Weather: Sun to Earth Space Weather: Sun to Earth A NASA animation of a space weather event as it starts at the sun and ends up at Earth • Solar Flare (Observed by GOES X-ray and particle instruments: SXI, XRS, EPS) • Light and X-rays • Particles • Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) (Observed by GOES proposed coronagraph: SCOR and proposed solar wind monitor) • Particles and Fields • Magnetosphere (Observed by GOES particle and field instruments: EPS, MAG) • Deflects the solar wind • Energy transfer from solar wind to magnetosphere when interplanetary field opposite direction of Earth’s field • Accelerates particles • Ionosphere (Observed by POES/NPOESS instruments) • Accelerated particles collide with the atmosphere producing the aurora SMH 10/11/2001

5. GOES Space Environment Monitor Contributes to the SEC Mission and NOAA Mission Goals Space Weather Operations Space Environment Center Mission • Nation's official source of space weather alerts and warnings • Monitors and forecasts Earth's space environment • Provides accurate, reliable, and useful solar-terrestrial information • Conducts and leads R& D programs to understand the environment and to improve services • Advises policy makers and planners • Plays a leadership role in the space weather community • Fosters a space weather services industry NOAA Mission Goals SMH 10/11/2001

6. Satellites: GOES 8 (Launch: 4/13/94, EOL orbit raising 5/5/04) GOES 9 (Launch: 5/23/95, loaned to Japan) (Launch: 4/25/97, Operational) GOES 11 (Launch: 5/13/00, On-orbit storage) GOES 12 (Launch: 7/23/01, Operational) GOES NOP (Boeing production, launch start 12/04) GOES 10 NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Space Weather Instrumentation GOES 8-12 • Space Environment Monitor (SEM) • Energetic Particle Sensor (EPS) • Monitors the energetic electron, proton, and • alpha particle fluxes • e: 0.6 to 4.0 MeV, p: 0.7 to 700 MeV, a: 4 to 3400 MeV • Magnetometer (MAG) • Monitors the vector magnetic field • 0.512 second samples, ~0.1 nT sensitivity, +/- 1000 nT • X-Ray Sensor (XRS) • Monitors whole-Sun x-ray brightness in two bands • 1 - 8 Angstroms and 0.5 - 4 Angstroms • Solar X-ray Imager (SXI) – first on GOES 12 • One - minute cadence, full disk, 5 arc sec pixels, • 0.6 – 6 nm, 512 x 512 pixel array SMH 10/11/2001

7. GOES NOP SEM Enhancement Summary Magnetometer (MAG) • Two instruments operating simultaneously Energetic Particle Sensors (EPS) • Lower electron (30 KeV) and proton (80 keV) energy limits • More look-directions X-Ray Sensor (XRS) • Eliminate electronic range-changing EUV Sensor (EUVS) • New instrument with 5 wavelength bands 10 – 125 nm Solar X-Ray Imager (SXI) • Improved sensitivity and resolution • Autonomous event response SMH 10/11/2001

8. GOES XRS GOES SXI GOES EUV POES SBUV Spectrum from Lean 1999 105 X-RAY EUV UV VIS IR NPOESS (SIM) 1000 Solar Irradiance Solar Variability (max – min)/min 10 NPOESS (TIM) 0.1 0.1 1.0 10 100 1000 10000 Wavelength (nm) NOAA Observations Across the Solar Spectrum and Flux Variation with Solar Cycle • EUV flux variation causes thermospheric temperature, density, composition, and scale height to vary with solar cycle • X-ray flux variation causes immediate changes in the dayside ionosphere that affects signals that reflect from this region or propagate through it SMH 10/11/2001

9. GOES R+ SEM: Improvements 1 SMH 10/11/2001 SEISS – Space Environment In-Situ Suite; SIS – Solar Imaging Suite

10. Solar X-ray Imager (SIS/SXI) Increase dynamic range from 102 to 104 Double sensitivity Improve spatial resolution Coronagraph P3I Detect Earth-directed coronal mass ejections up to 2500 km/s Must cover approx. 12 RSUN/hour with three to four images GOES R+ SEM: Improvements 2Solar X-Ray Imager and Coronograph LASCO C3 GOESR SMH 10/11/2001 SXI/EIT Nov 04 Storm

11. P3I Coronagraph Needed to Improve Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts A coronagraph will answer questions similar to those asked about hurricanes: • Did a CME occur? • Will the CME hit the Earth, thus causing a geomagnetic storm? • When will the storm begin? • 1-3 days warning • How strong will the storm be? • How long will the storm last? Hurricane Isabel 09/18/2003 NASA/ESA SOHO Research Coronagraph observes Coronal Mass Ejections (CME’s) during October/November 2004 Halloween Storms SMH 10/11/2001

12. User Involvement in Establishing GOES R Space Enviornment Monitor Instrumentation • GOES Solar Imaging Workshop - October 2001 • GOES Energetic Particle Workshop - October 2002 • GOES Solar EUV Workshop - October 2002 • Airline Workshop - February 2004 • GOES R Workshops • Formulation Phase Study Opportunities • - Solar Imaging Suite (SIS) • - Space Environment In-SituSuite (SEISS) • - Magnetometer part of spacecraft procurement • Space Weather Week SMH 10/11/2001

13. Space Weather Week: Bridging the Gap of Research to Operations • An annual, and growing, event at NOAA SEC that includes: • Space environment user effects • Impacts on economy, health, and safety • Information for decision makers • Relevant research • Service enhancements • Vendor meetings • Interagency coordination (National Space Weather Program) • International Space Environment Services SWW 2004 (April 13-16) had 250 attendees from industry, academia, government agencies. SMH 10/11/2001

14. October/November 2003 Halloween Storms SEC’s First Service Assessment Numerous Alerts and Warnings issued based on GOES data • Service Assessment issued: “Intense Space Weather Storms October 19 – November 07, 2003” • Alerts/Warnings • 18 days w/Radio Blackouts • 12 days w/Geomagnetic Storms • 13 days w/Radiation Storms • Selected Impacts • 76% of NASA Earth and Space Science missions surveyed were affected • 2 science instruments lost • ADEOS-2 spacecraft was lost • Airlines reported communications problems • Polar route changes • NRC: > 6 nuclear power plants took mitigating action • Power grid: US preventative action • Malmo, Sweden blackout DRAFT SMH 10/11/2001

15. Polar 1 Polar Airline Routes Polar 2 Polar 3 Chicago North Pole Polar 4 Hong Kong Alaska Aviation Impacts During Halloween Storms • C-130 operations in Antarctica changed landing and take-off restrictions during the HF blackout periods. • A major airline rerouted six polar flights to non-polar routes requiring fuel stops in Japan and/or Anchorage). • Numerous other US flights rerouted or restricted. • British controllers kept trans-Atlantic jets on more southerly routes than usual to avoid the communication problems. • British Airways pilots deviated from the airline's flight plans and flew at lower altitudes amid concerns over health risks to passengers and crew from radiation. GOES Energetic Particle Data Used for Airline Alerts and Warnings Radio Blackout During Particle Events SMH 10/11/2001

16. International Space Station Impacts Flight controllers issued contingency directives for the ISS Expedition 8 crew to briefly relocate to the aft portion of the station's Zvezda Service Module and the Temporary Sleep Station (TeSS) in the U.S. Lab. (total – five 20-minute periods) NASA did a ground-commanded powerdown of the billion dollar robotic arm and workstation. ISS Environments System Team prepared to take other precautionary actions (e.g., shut down the S-band antenna controller and external color TV cameras) if radiation levels were to increase more than they did. The ISS Environments System Team also reported that the ISS experienced significant abnormal frictional drag. SMH 10/11/2001

17. How much interest was there in the Oct-Nov activity??? In July 2003, during Hurricane Claudette, the NOAA National Hurricane Center website averaged 3.7 million hits per day. During the 15-day period - 24 Oct through 07 Nov, the SEC website averaged 6.2 million hits per day. SMH 10/11/2001

18. An Example for The Future: GOES SEM Measurements needed for Space Exploration • Near the Earth and • under the radiation belts - • Shuttle and ISS ops: • EVA scheduling, and • occasional “sheltering”. • Knowledge of current SWx • situation required. • In Cislunar and lunar orbits, lunar surface operations: • Need for optimization of flight plans and ops with knowledge • of current/evolving SWx. Predictive capability of SWx enhances • exploration. • Beyond the Moon - Ln and Mars:Need for optimization • of flight plans and ops with knowledge of current SWx conditions. • Predictive capability enables exploration. Figure adapted from Fisher/NASA Hq SMH 10/11/2001

19. Summary • GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) measurements provide crucial data to our Nation and the world for commercial and government applications and for understanding the space environment. • NOAA services must expand to meet the needs of our Nation’s increasing use of and reliance on the space environment. • User input has provided the necessary guidance to define GOES R SEM instrumentation. • GOES-R SEM activities are in the formulation phase. SMH 10/11/2001

20. Additionalslides SMH 10/11/2001

21. GOES Energetic Particle Measurements Support the ISS As of a May 2000 report, 138 insured satellites in geosynchronous orbit valued at $20.1 B. “Space weather suggested as cause or contributor to over $500 M in insurance claims in past 4 years. “ U.S. Aviation Underwriters, Inc Hubble “Highest priority space weather need for NASA SRAG is a “Healthy” NOAA SEC…” M. Golightly, NASA/SRAG Geosynchronous Assets Variability in the EUV flux causes variability in the ionosphere. Radio Communication & Navigation Japan ESA USA GOES SEM Measurements Benefit Users GOES meaurements are useful for those concerned with: satellite drag; GPS uses; airline crew radiation exposure; electric power distribution…. Polar airline routes lose ground communications due to solar x-rays and energetic particles: Alternate routes required; Uses more fuel; Flight delays SMH 10/11/2001