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Extrem Forecast Index

Extrem Forecast Index. Pierre Eckert Daniel Cattani MétéoSuisse. EFI: definition Scores and verification Precipitations Wind gust Conclusion. p. F f (p). An Extreme Forecast Index.

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Extrem Forecast Index

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  1. Extrem Forecast Index Pierre Eckert Daniel Cattani MétéoSuisse

  2. EFI: definition • Scores and verification • Precipitations • Wind gust • Conclusion

  3. p Ff(p)

  4. An Extreme Forecast Index • Takes values from –1 (all members break climate minimum records) and +1 (all beyond climate maximum records) • For a single value (e.g. deterministic) forecast with climate rank Q: EFI3=(Q-50%) [1+4(Q-50%)2] Q=95%, EFI3=0.81 Q=98%, EFI3=0.92 Q=99%, EFI3=0.96

  5. Verification parameters (1) • Precipitations (nov.2001-apr.2003) • Predictands: 2nd max prec. / 24h of climatological regions (W, E, S) • Predictors: EFI max over regions • Thresholds • 10 mm/24h • 20 mm/24h • 50 mm/24h

  6. Verification parameters (2) • Gusts (nov.2001-apr.2003) • Predictands: 2nd max gust / 24h of climatological regions (W, E ) • Predictors: • EFI max over regions • EFI max over all the domain (45-48.5°N; 5-11.5°E) • Thresholds • 50 km/h • 75 km/h • 100 km/h

  7. Verification: scores • Forecasted : EFI gt given value • Hit Rate = A / (A+C) • FAR = B / (A+B)

  8. Precipitations : Switzerland West Hit = 0,5 EFI = 0,3 T+66h EFI = 0,2 T+90h EFI = 0,2 T+114

  9. Precipitations : Switzerland West

  10. Precipitations : Switzerland West

  11. Precipitations : Switzerland South

  12. Precipitations : Switzerland South

  13. Precipitations : Switzerland South

  14. Gusts : Switzerland West 50km/h 75km/h

  15. Gusts : Switzerland West 50km/h 75km/h

  16. Gusts: Switzerland West

  17. Gusts: Switzerland West (ref region)

  18. Conclusion: precipitations

  19. Conclusion: Gusts

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