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Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project: Forecast Quality Index

Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project: Forecast Quality Index. Sukanta Basu Texas Tech University & Efi Foufoula-Georgiou University of Minnesota. NCAR – Feb 20 th , 2007 . Forecast Quality Index (FQI). Ingredients :

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Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project: Forecast Quality Index

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  1. Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Intercomparison Project: Forecast Quality Index Sukanta Basu Texas Tech University & Efi Foufoula-Georgiou University of Minnesota NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007

  2. Forecast Quality Index (FQI) • Ingredients: • Partial Hausdorff distance (PHD) → Displacement Error • (Modified) Universal Image Quality Index (UIQI) → Amplitude Error • Surrogates • References: • Basu, S., Dodov, B., and Foufoula-Georgiou, E. (2003). A novel measure for QPF verification and its usefulness in multimodel ensemble forecasting, Geophys. Res. Abstracts,5, 04323, European Geophysical Society. • Venugopal, V., Basu, S., and Foufoula-Georgiou, E. (2005). A new metric for comparing precipitation patterns with an application to ensemble forecasts, J. Geophys. Res., 110, D08111, doi:10.1029/2004JD005395. NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  3. Forecast Quality Index: Framework Fcs Obs Obs(Obs>Th) Fcs(Fcs>Th) Surr # 1 Surr # M Compute UIQI Surr # M>Th Surr # 1>Th Compute PHD Compute PHD Obs>Th Fcs>Th Compute PHD NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  4. √ √ √ Hausdorff Distance (for Sets) Finite Point Sets: and where, If  then every point A of must be within a distance d of some point of B and vice versa. NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  5. Hausdorff Distance (for Binary Images) where, Effects of Outliers: Partial Hausdorff Distance (PHD) NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  6. May 13th, 2005 Case Study NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  7. Surrogates (Stochastic Realizations) of the Observed Field NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  8. Results (May 13th Case): Forecast Quality Index (FQI) NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  9. Forecast Quality Index: Sensitivity to Percentile Distance NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  10. Forecast Quality Index: Sensitivity to # Surrogates NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  11. Results (May 13th Case): Universal Image Quality Index NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  12. Results (May 13th Case): Partial Hausdorff Distance (PHD) NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  13. June 1st, 2005 Case Study NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  14. Results (June 1st Case): Forecast Quality Index (FQI) NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  15. Results (June 1st Case): Universal Image Quality Index NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  16. Results (June 1st Case): Partial Hausdorff Distance (PHD) NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  17. Results: May 13th vs. June 1st Case ← May 13th June 1st → NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

  18. What’s Next? Transportation (Kantorovich) Distance-based Metric NCAR – Feb 20th, 2007 Basu & Foufoula-Georgiou

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