Public opinion in Serbia Attitudes towards ICTY

1. Public opinion in SerbiaAttitudes towards ICTY SMMRI August 2004 Belgrade Centre for Human Rights

2. Methodology • Realization: Field work from 26-30 August, 2004 • Target population:18+ / Serbia (without Kosmet) • Sample size: 1245 respondents • Sample type: Three-staged random representative stratified sample • Sample-phases: • First-stage unit: polling stations (PPS) • Second-stage unit: Households (SRSWoR – random walk) • Third-stage unit: Respondents within households (SRSWoR – Kish tables) • Survey type: Field survey, face-to-face • Sub stratification:By gender, age and region • Error: Level of credibility 95%, marginal error for answer incidence 50%,+/-3% (+/-1% for answer incidence of 5%) Belrade Center for Human Right

3. Methodology This is the second survey in one-year interval, which enabled us to follow the changes in level of familiarity with and attitudes of citizens of Serbia to ICTY. In the part dealing with familiarity and attitude of citizens to events related to wars on former Yugoslavia territory in the last decade of 20th century, in order to monitor the changes, we used the results of Serbia public opinion survey “Truth, responsibility and reconciliation” conducted by Strategic Marketing for B92 in May 2001. Belrade Center for Human Right

4. Contents • Political environment • How informed are the citizens about ICTY activities and domestic judiciary for war crimes • Truth and responsibility: Familiarity with and attitudes to events related to wars on former Yugoslavia territory in the last decade of 20th century • Attitude to ICTY: attitude to cooperation, confidence and perception of ICTY mission • Attitude to domestic judiciary for war crimes • Facing the truth and the role of ICTY and domestic judiciary in accepting it Belrade Center for Human Right

5. Political environment Belrade Center for Human Right

6. Political environment • After Zoran Djindjic assassination, Serbian Radical Party, the biggest representative of anti-Hague policy, has been on the steady increase; after December 2003 election, this party had the largest number of seats in the new Republic Parliament. • New minority government was formed with SPS support, another representative of anti-Hague policy. • One of the first laws passed by the new parliament was the Law on financial support for those indicted by the Tribunal. • After the victory of the democratic candidate in presidential election, this party gained equal strength as SRS and these two parties, at the time of survey, dominate the political stage. Belrade Center for Human Right

7. Political environment • Citizens are still preoccupied with economic problems, low personal standard and the fear of unemployment. • Among five most important problems facing Serbia (personal standard and new job opportunities; crime and corruption; protection of national interests and interests of Serbs in Kosovo, BiH and Croatia; EU integrations and attraction of investments), cooperation with ICTY has the last position. • Generally negative opinion on government actions on all mentioned problems is somewhat better when it comes to cooperation with ICTY. SPS is particularly satisfied with the way the government is addressing this issue. Belrade Center for Human Right

8. Political environment:Where is Serbia headed ... The main indicator of overall situation, which is, by rule, parallel to confidence in authorities, after dramatic pessimism following Parliamentary election, then again after minority government was formed, shows increasing optimism after the democratic candidate was elected President of Serbia in June. Belrade Center for Human Right

9. Political environment : Support for political parties Party they would vote for if elections were held this Sunday SRS and DS are the two dominant parties on the political stage. After Zoran Djindjic assassination, SRS has been on the steady increase and won the biggest number of seats in the new Parliament. DS has had strong increasing trends during and after presidential election. New party PSS, with Bogoljub Karic as its leader, is also experiencing an increase. Belrade Center for Human Right

10. Political environment :Most important problems Serbia is faced with Which of the given problems is most important for Serbia? % of citizens who chose the following problems as the first three most important Only 10% of citizens selected the issue of cooperation with ICTY as one of the three most important problems that Serbia has on the given list, and only 2.4% stated that cooperation with ICTY was the most important problem that Serbia is facing at the moment. Belrade Center for Human Right

11. Political environment : How well is the government addressing certain problems Citizens are generally very dissatisfied with government activities, but cooperation with ICTY is still assessed as slightly better than activities in the other fields. Belrade Center for Human Right

12. Political environment : How well is the government addressing certain problems -cooperation with ICTY % of citizens who assessed Government activities in cooperation with ICTY positively SPS approves of Government activities in cooperation with ICTY more (22%) than total population average(13%) Belrade Center for Human Right

13. Familiarity with ICTY activities and domestic courts for war crimes Belrade Center for Human Right

14. Familiarity with ICTY activities and domestic courts for war crimes Majority of citizens are not familiar either with ICTY institution as such, or domestic courts for war crimes, nor do they follow trials for war crimes, either in ICTY or in domestic courts • Majority of citizens, according to their own statement, is not familiar with ICTY institution (64%) and they do not follow trials for war crimes in the Hague (69%). • In comparison to previous year, the number of citizens who claim that they are familiar with ICTY institution has increased (from 6% to 15%), but the same is not true of the number of citizens who follow the Hague trials. The trials are still followed only by every tenth citizen. • Fewer than every fifth citizen states that in the past year he had changed his opinion on the activities of ICTY, mostly in the negative direction. • Most citizens (58%) are informed that there are special judicial institutions in Serbia dealing with war crimes, but most did not know which institutions these were. • Most citizens, according to their own statement, are neither familiar with the activities of domestic war crime prosecution institution (72% not at all, 24% a little), nor do they follow the trials in domestic courts (89%). • Most citizens think that the public should be much better informed about the activities of domestic courts for war crimes (64%), and only every fifth citizen thinks that the media offer enough information for those who want to be informed. Belrade Center for Human Right

15. Familiarity with ICTY activities To what extent are you personally familiar with the ICTY institution itself? 6% 15% 68% 57% Although most citizens asses their own familiarity with ICTY institution as very small or rather small, this percentage has decreased in comparison to last year for 7%, and the percentage of citizens who claim that they are very familiar has increased from 6% to 15%. Belrade Center for Human Right

16. Familiarity with ICTY activities To what extent are you personally familiar with the ICTY institution itself? The youngest segment (18-29) is the least familiar with ICTY institution, as well as women and citizens with lower education. Belrade Center for Human Right

17. Familiarity with ICTY activities To what extent do you follow the trials in the Hague? 11% 10% 69% 62% Most citizens do not follow the trials in The Hague (62%), every tenth citizen follows the trials most of the time. However, the percentage of citizens who at least occasionally follow the trials has increased in comparison to previous year, from 20% to 28%. Belrade Center for Human Right

18. Familiarity with ICTY activities To what extent do you follow the trials in the Hague? The youngest segment (18-29), women and citizens with lower education are the ones who follow the ICTY trials the least. Belrade Center for Human Right

19. Familiarity with ICTY activities:The effect of following the trials on the change in attitude Has your opinion changed-in a positive or negative direction? Answers by citizens who said the trials had made them change their opinion on ICTY (2003) Has any testimony in ICTY made you change your opinion on ICTY? (2004) Has anything in relation to ICTY trials affected your opinion about the Tribunal? 0.6% of population 4% of population 18% of population 9% of population Smaller percentage of citizens (less than one fifth) change their opinion on ICTY based on what they see in the trials. If their opinion changes, it is changes in the negative direction. In comparison to previous year, even larger percentage of citizens have changed their attitude to ICTY in the negative sense. Belrade Center for Human Right

20. Familiarity with ICTY activities – Events that influenced a change of opinion Which event in the last year had influenced a change of your opinion on ICTY? Most frequent answers by 19% of citizens who stated that an event related to the trial had influenced a change of their opinion on ICTY. 0.6% populacije 4% populacije Citizens stated much more often overall impressions that the trial of indicted Serbs was biased, than they were able to state clearly which concrete events had influenced a change of their opinion. Belrade Center for Human Right

21. Familiarity with activities of domestic courts for war crimes Which institutions are you familiar with? Answers by 58% of citizens who stated that they knew there were special judicial institutions for war crime trials in Serbia? Do you know that there are special judicial institutions for war crime trials in Serbia? 3 In total, 36% of citizens were able to state judicial institutions for war crime trials, but could not exactly name them. More than half citizens said that they knew there were special judicial institutions for war crime trials in Serbia, but majority did not know which particularly institutions they were. Belrade Center for Human Right

22. Familiarity with activities of domestic courts for war crimes Are you familiar with activities of Republic of Serbia Prosecutor’s Office for war crimes? Only 4% of the population claimed they were familiar with activities of domestic Prosecutor’s office for war crimes, and additional one quarter claimed that they knew a little about it, while the majority of 72% know nothing about it. The least informed are the youngest citizens (18 to 29), women and the segment with the lowest education. Belrade Center for Human Right

23. Familiarity with activities of domestic courts for war crimes Which trials are these? Answers by 24% of citizens who follow the trials at least very rarely To what extent do you follow war crime trials in domestic courts? 24 % 8% of population 10% of population 89% 6% of population 89% of citizens do not follow at all, or very rarely follow war crime trials in domestic courts. Out of the remaining 24%, only 10% was able to state which war crime trial it was, 6% stated Djindjic and Stambolic murder trials instead of war crime trials, and 8% do not know which crimes these were. Belrade Center for Human Right

24. Familiarity with activities of domestic courts for war crimes Should the public be more informed about the course of trials for war crimes in domestic courts? Assessment of present course of war crime trials in domestic courts? Assessment by 24% of population who follow the trials 16 % 53% More than half of those who at least occasionally follow the trials for war crimes in domestic courts, give negative assessment of the present course of trials. Most citizens think that the public should be much better informed on the course of war crime trials in domestic courts Belrade Center for Human Right

25. Truth and responsibility: Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY in the last decade of the 20th century Belrade Center for Human Right

26. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory, 1992-1995 Familiarity with events related to wars on the territory of former SFRY 1992-1995 is very selective, and attitude to these events is extremely biased, depending on who was the culprit and who the victim of the given event. A significantly larger percentage of citizens are familiar with events and believe them to be true if the victims were Serbs and the culprits belonged to a different ethnic group. These events are described as war crimes. • 85% of citizens have heard that the Croats killed a lot of civilians during operations “Storm” and “Flash”, 82% believe that the events were true and 75% believe that this is war crime, but only slightly more than half of the population have heard that the paramilitary troops and Yugoslav Army killed civilians in Vukovar, 24% believe that this really happened, and only 18% of citizens believe that these were true events and consider them to be war crimes. • 71% have heard that the Moslems kept Serbs in prison camps in BiH, 66% believe this to be true, 53% think that this was war crime, but only half of the population have heard that Sarajevo was under siege for more than 1000 days, 40% believe this to be true, and only 16% believe that Sarajevo siege, which lasted for over 1000 days, really happened and that this is war crime. • 71% have heard that the mass graves in Batajnica, Suva Reka and Perucac revealed a large number of corpses of Albanian civilians, only 31% believe this to be true, and only every fourth citizen believe that this event really happened and that it is war crime… Most citizens do not have any idea about the number of casualties in wars on former SFRY territory (the number of Serb refugees from Croatia, BiH and Kosovo, the number of killed in Sarajevo and Srebrenica, the total number of killed on former SFRY territory…), but a large majority (84%) think that the Serbs sustained the largest number of victims and (with the exception of the Slovenians) committed the least crimes (71%). Belrade Center for Human Right

27. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory 1992-1995 Have you heard about the stated event, do you believe it happened, was it inevitable in the course of war or a war crime? %of those who have heard % in population %of those who believe % in population Significantly higher percentage of citizens believe that an event is credible and think of it as a crime when these are the crimes where the Serbs were the victims Belrade Center for Human Right

28. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory % of citizens who think the stated event is war crime Belrade Center for Human Right

29. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory With the exception of Srebrenica, a significantly smaller number of citizens say that they heard about the events related to wars on former SFRY territory, than in 2001. With the exception of event related to civilians being killed by sniper shots in Sarajevo, the number of citizens who believe that the stated events really happened, has significantly decreased. Belrade Center for Human Right

30. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory % of citizens who state that they heard of the event Belrade Center for Human Right

31. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory % of citizens who state that they believe the event they heard about really happened Belrade Center for Human Right

32. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory A war criminal is a criminal regardless of the nation he belongs to % Great majority of citizens, 84%, completely agree with the statement that qualification of a war criminal does not depend on his national affiliation, but still 11% of citizens has at least a slight dilemma in this respect, 3% of citizens is still indecisive, and additional 3% does not agree with this statement. Belrade Center for Human Right

33. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory Have you heard about the report of the government of Republic of Srpska on crimes in Srebrenica? To what effect does that report reflect what really happened? Answers by 29% of citizens who heard of the report Attitude to apology made by the president of Republic of Srpska, Dragan Cavic, for the crime committed in Srebrenica 3% of population 9% of population 14% of population Less than one third of citizens heard about the report of Republic of Srpska government on crimes in Srebrenica, and almost half of them think that the report reflects the truth only partially. Majority of citizens, 60%, had not heard about the apology made by the president of Republic of Srpska, and only 7% thinks that it was high time this apology was offered. Belrade Center for Human Right

34. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory Estimate of number of Serb refugees from Croatia in thousands Estimate of number of Serb refugees from BiH in thousands 2004 2004 Over300 000 Over 300 000 2001 2001 Over 300 000+ Over 300 000 More than half citizens did not have any idea of the number of Serb refugees from Croatia, and almost 70% of the number of Serb refugees from BiH. In comparison to 2001, the supposed number of refugees was significantly lowered, and the number of citizens who did not know the answer to this question went up. Belrade Center for Human Right

35. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory Estimate of the number of Serb refugees from Kosovo after NATO intervention in 1999, in thousands Estimate of the total number of displaced persons in BiH, in thousands 2004 2004 Over200 000 Over900 000 2001 2001 Over200 000 Over900 000 Much more answers “I do not know” and fewer number of displaced persons in citizens’ perception were obtained than in 2001, and the same was true of number of refuges from Kosovo after NATO intervention and the number of those displaced from their houses in BiH. Belrade Center for Human Right

36. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory Estimate of the total number of killed in Sarajevo, in thousands Estimate of the number of the missing in Srebrenica, in thousands 2004 2004 2001 2001 Almost 80% of citizens does not have the slightest idea of the number of killed in Sarajevo, and 75% of the number of the missing in Srebrenica. The number of casualties in these cases, according to their statement, is smaller than three years ago. Belrade Center for Human Right

37. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory Estimate of the total number of killed on former SFRY territory in 1991-1995 wars, in thousands Estimate of the total number of those who moved out of Serbia since 1992 2004 2004 2001 2001 The number of killed on former SFRY territory since 1991 to 1995, along with the number of killed in Sarajevo, is the greatest unknown for citizens of Serbia, and the number of citizens who stated that they did not have any idea on these numbers has increased even more in comparison to 2001. Belrade Center for Human Right

38. Familiarity and attitude to events related to wars on former SFRY territory Who had the largest number of victims in 1991-1995 wars on former SFRY territory? Who committed most crimes in 1991-1995 wars on former SFRY territory? Rank by number of victims Rank by number of crimes Citizens are of the opinion that the Serbs had the largest number of victims (with the exception of Slovenians) and committed the least crimes: 84% of citizens think that the Serbs had the largest number of victims, 71% that they committed fewer crimes than Croats, Albanians and Moslems (out of this number 26% think that Serbs committed fewer crimes even than Slovenians) Belrade Center for Human Right

39. Attitude to ICTY: attitude to cooperation, trust and perception of ICTY mission Belrade Center for Human Right

40. Attitude to ICTY: attitude to cooperation, trust and perception of ICTY mission Despite being uninformed about ICTY and the course of trials, citizens have a clearly defined attitude to ICTY and its mission Attitude to ICTY is extremely negative, and every fourth citizen thinks that there should be no cooperation with ICTY under no circumstances, which is a much higher percentage than previous year. Three quarters of citizens interpret ICTY mission as “world conspiracy” against Serbs and Serbia, slightly more often than every fifth citizen believes that the purpose of ICTY trials is to promote the idea of peace and tolerance, or at least prevent war crimes in the future. Much more citizens who support one of the “conspiracy theories” believe that ICTY will accomplish its mission, which is almost one third of the total population (29%). Belrade Center for Human Right

41. Attitude to ICTY: attitude to cooperation, trust and perception of ICTY mission • In comparison to previous year, the number of citizens who think that there should be cooperation with ICTY decreased from 85% to 70%. Majority of citizens still think that we should cooperate because this is the prerequisite for integration and for avoiding sanctions, only 15% think that we should cooperate in order to achieve justice. • Majority, 69%, do not believe that ICTY will try the indicted Serbs in an unbiased manner, and up to 74% think that victims who are of Serbian nationality and their families also perceive ICTY as very unjust. • Every fourth citizen thinks that victims of other nationalities and their families also perceive ICTY as very unjust. • However, 40% of citizens stated that they would agree to give a statement to ICTY investigators if they had witnessed a war crime. Belrade Center for Human Right

42. Attitudes towards ICTY: attitude to cooperation Attitude to cooperation of Serbia with ICTY For cooperationtotal 85% Utilitarian For cooperation total 70% For cooperation For justice Every fourth citizen thinks that there should be no cooperation with ICTY whatever the consequences might be. Percentage of citizens who think that Serbia should cooperate with ICTY has significantly dropped in comparison to previous year, from 85% to 70%. The same as last year, only 15% of citizens think that we should cooperate in order to achieve justice, cooperation for the remaining 55% is motivated by utilitarian reasons-fulfilling conditions for Serbia to reintegrate into world and avoiding sanctions. Belrade Center for Human Right

43. Attitudes towrds ICTY: attitude to cooperation Attitude to cooperation of Serbia with ICTY depending on age, education and region Cooperation with ICTY is most opposed by older citizens, those with lower education and somewhat more by citizens of Central Serbia than citizens of Belgrade and Vojvodina. Belrade Center for Human Right

44. Attitudes towards ICTY: attitude to cooperation Attitude to cooperation of Serbia with ICTY depending on political orientation % of support in population 16% 3% 4% 7% 9% 4% 18% Attitudes to cooperation with ICTY are in accordance with policy of political parties that citizens support: the biggest support for cooperation with ICTY is given by Democratic party electorate, the most opposition is expressed by Serbian radical party and Socialist party of Serbia. Belrade Center for Human Right

45. Attitudes towards ICTY: confidence that it is unbiased What is the greatest bias that ICTY shows towards indicted Serbs in comparison to indicted of other nationalities Answers by part of population who doubt that ICTY is unbiased Confidence that ICTY will give a fair and fact-based trial to indicted of Serbian nationality More than two thirds of population think that ICTY tries the indicated Serbs in a biased manner, and the reason most often given for this opinion is that there are more indicted Serbs. Belrade Center for Human Right

46. Attitudes towards ICTY: Perception of ICTY activities by war crimes victims and their families How do ICTY trials affect war crimes victims and their families, when it comes to Serb casualties and their families? Most citizens, 74%, think that Serbian victims and their families perceive ICTY as very unjust, only 16% think that they feel justice has been served (at least partially 14%, or completely 2%). Belrade Center for Human Right

47. Attitudes towards ICTY: Perception of ICTY activities by war crimes victims and their families How do ICTY trials affect victims of non Serb nationalities (Moslems/Bosniaks, Croats, Albanians) and their families? Most citizens, 56%, think that ICTY trials make victims of other nationalities and their families feel that justice has been served (at least partially 39%, or completely 17%), while every fourth citizen thinks that they perceive ICTY as unjust. Belrade Center for Human Right

48. Attitudes towards ICTY: Perception of ICTY mission In your opinion, what is the main purpose of war crime trials in ICTY? 74% 22% Most citizens, 74%, interpret the purpose of ICTY trials in accordance with one of the “conspiracy theories”, which involves international community, NATO and USA. Only slightly more frequent than every fifth citizen sees the message of ICTY trials as going in favor of peace and tolerance, or at least prevention of future war crimes. Belrade Center for Human Right

49. Attitudes towards ICTY : Perception of ICTY mission In your opinion, what is the main purpose of war crime trials in ICTY? Younger citizens, those with higher education and the population in Vojvodina more often than others believe that the purpose of ICTY trials is to disseminate the idea of peace and tolerance,or at least prevent war crimes from happening in future. Belrade Center for Human Right

50. Attitudes towards ICTY :Perception of ICTY mission Perception of purpose of trials for war crimes in ICTY depends on political orientation % of support in population 3% 16% 4% 9% 7% 4% 18% The most positive attitude to ICTY mission is expressed by SPO and DS electorate, the most negative by SRS and SPS. Belrade Center for Human Right