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Algorithmic Decision Theory and the Smart Grid

Algorithmic Decision Theory and the Smart Grid. Fred Roberts, Rutgers University. Algorithmic Decision Theory. Today’s decision makers in fields ranging from engineering to medicine to homeland security have available to them: Remarkable new technologies Huge amounts of information

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Algorithmic Decision Theory and the Smart Grid

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  1. Algorithmic Decision Theory and the Smart Grid Fred Roberts, Rutgers University

  2. Algorithmic Decision Theory • Today’s decision makers in fields ranging from engineering to medicine to homeland security have available to them: • Remarkable new technologies • Huge amounts of information • Ability to share information at unprecedented speeds and quantities

  3. Algorithmic Decision Theory • These tools and resources will enable better decisions if we can surmount concomitant challenges: • The massive amounts of data available are often incomplete or unreliable or distributed and there is great uncertainty in them

  4. Algorithmic Decision Theory • These tools and resources will enable better decisions if we can surmount concomitant challenges: • Interoperating/distributed decision makers and decision-making devices need to be coordinated • Many sources of data need to be fused into a good decision, often in a remarkably short time

  5. Algorithmic Decision Theory • These tools and resources will enable better decisions if we can surmount concomitant challenges: • Decisions must be made in dynamic environments based on partial information • There is heightened risk due to extreme consequences of poor decisions • Decision makers must understand complex, multi-disciplinary problems

  6. Algorithmic Decision Theory • In the face of these new opportunities and challenges, ADT aims to exploit algorithmic methods to improve the performance of decision makers (human or automated). • Long tradition of algorithmic methods in logistics and planning dating at least to World War II. • But: algorithms to speed up and improve real-time decision making are much less common Pearl Harbor

  7. Algorithmic Decision Theory • The goal of the Special Focus on ADT and of the field of ADT is to explore and develop algorithmic approaches to decision problems arising from a variety of application areas. • This requires collaborations: • Computer scientists with decision theorists • Statisticians with economists • Mathematicians with behavioral scientists • Operations researchers with public health professionals • The SF on ADT aims at stimulating such collaborations

  8. DIMACS Special Focus on Algorithmic Decision Theory • The SF is the classic DIMACS approach to exploring and developing new areas of science • Approach • Workshops • Working groups • Foundational Topics • Applied Topics

  9. Special Focus on Algorithmic Decision Theory • Foundations WSs and WGs • Risk-averse adversarial decision making • Risk measures and incorporating them into ADT Risk topics Cosponsored by CCICADA

  10. Special Focus on Algorithmic Decision Theory • Foundations WSs and WGs • The science of expert opinion

  11. Special Focus on Algorithmic Decision Theory • Foundations WSs and WGs • Evidence-based policy making • December 2-3 in Paris

  12. Special Focus on Algorithmic Decision Theory • Foundations WSs and WGs • Recommender systems

  13. Special Focus on Algorithmic Decision Theory • WSs and WGs on Applied Topics • Electric power systems (smart grid) • Health care • Epidemiology Note: Long-term DIMACS SF on epidemiology; planned SF on Algorithms and Energy

  14. Special Focus on Algorithmic Decision Theory • WSs and WGs on Applied Topics • Ecology • Port Security • Urban policy making (“smart cities”) Note: long term DIMACS project on inspection algorithms for ports – relevant to testing state of the smart grid

  15. Special Focus on Algorithmic Decision Theory • SF-ADT arose from a joint project on Computer Science and Decision Theory between DIMACS and LAMSADE (Laboratoire d’Analyse et Modelisation de Systeme pour l’Aide a la Decision, U. of Paris Dauphine) • Special issue of Annals of Operations Research, Vol. 163, 2008 • Special issue of Mathematical Social Sciences, Vol. 57, 2009

  16. Special Focus on Algorithmic Decision Theory • The European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) funded a 4-year project on ADT that included the First International Conference on ADT, Venice 2009. • The second International Conference on ADT will be held at DIMACS in October 2011.

  17. Special Focus on Algorithmic Decision Theory • The DIMACS SF on ADT is sponsored by: • National Science Foundation • Department of Homeland Security

  18. ADT and Smart Grid Many of the following ideas are borrowed from a presentation by Gil Bindewald of the Dept. of Energy to the SIAM Science Policy Committee, 10-28-09

  19. ADT and Smart Grid • Today’s electric power systems have grown up incrementally and haphazardly – they were not designed from scratch • They form complex systems that are in constant change: • Loads change • Breakers go out • There are unexpected disturbances • They are at the mercy of uncontrollable influences such as weather Note: DIMACS project on Climate & health: heat events

  20. ADT and Smart Grid • Today’s electric power sytems operate under considerable uncertainty • Cascading failures can have dramatic consequences.

  21. ADT and Smart Grid • Challenges include: • Huge number of customers, uncontrolled demand • Changing supply mix system not designed for Complexity of the grid • Operating close to the edge and thus vulnerable to failures

  22. ADT and Smart Grid • Challenges include: • Interdependencies of electrical systems create vulnerabilities • Managed through large parallel computers/ supercomputers with the system not set up for this type of management

  23. ADT and Smart Grid • “Smart grid” data sources enable real-time precision in operations and control previously unobtainable: • Real-time data from smart meter systems will enable customer engagement through demand response, efficiency, etc.

  24. ADT and Smart Grid • “Smart grid” data sources enable real-time precision in operations and control previously unobtainable: • Time-synchronous phasor data, linked with advanced computation and visualization, will enable advances in • state estimation • real-time contingency analysis • real-time monitoring of dynamic (oscillatory) behaviors in the system

  25. ADT and Smart Grid • “Smart grid” data sources enable real-time precision in operations and control previously unobtainable: • Enhanced operational intelligence • Integrating communications, connecting components for real-time information and control

  26. ADT and Smart Grid • “Smart grid” data sources enable real-time precision in operations and control previously unobtainable: • Sensing and measurement technologies will support faster and more accurate response, e.g., remote monitoring • Advanced control methods will enable rapid diagnosis and precise solutions appropriate to an “event”

  27. ADT and Smart Grid: Phasor Measurements • Phasor measurements will provide “MRI quality” visibility of the power system. • Traditional SCADA measurement provides • Bus voltages • Line, generator, and transformer flows • Breaker Status • Measurement every 2 to 4 seconds

  28. ADT and Smart Grid: Phasor Measurements • Phasor technology and phasor measurements provide additional data: • Voltage and current phase angles • Frequency rate of change • Measurements taken many times a second • This gives dynamic visibility into power system behavior

  29. ADT and Smart Grid: Phasor Measurements • Phasor technology and phasor measurements provide additional data: • New algorithmic methods to understand, process, visualize data and find anomalies rapidly are required. • Such measurements will allow rapid understanding of how customers are using electricity. • Raise privacy issues. • Another area for research.

  30. ADT and Smart Grid: Phasor Measurements • Some phasor applications: • Monitoring • Visibility beyond local controls • Frequency instability detection • Triangulation to estimate location of generator dip or hard drop

  31. ADT and Smart Grid: Phasor Measurements • Some phasor applications: • Analysis/Assessment: improved state estimation • Planning • Dynamic model validation • Forensic analysis through time tagging and synchronization of measurements • Protection and control: automatic arming of remedial action schemes

  32. ADT and Smart Grid • Other problems/opportunities requiring ADT: • Grid robustness: How will the grid respond to disturbances and how quickly can it be restored to its healthy state? • Transmission reliability: • Wide area situational awareness and advanced computational tools can help with quick response to dynamic process changes, e.g., using automatic switching. • Sample challenge: How far are we from the edge? When voltages drop too fast, the entire power system can collapse.

  33. ADT and Smart Grid • Some Challenges: • Need to develop reliable, robust models to help us achieve system understanding. • Need a new mathematics for characterizing uncertainty in information created from the large volumes of data arising from the smart grid. • Need new methods to enable the use of high-bandwidth networks by dynamically identifying only the data relevant to the current information need and discarding the rest.

  34. ADT and Smart Grid • Some Challenges: • Security of new software is a priority • Cyber attacks on the electric power grid are a major concern. Needed are methods for • Prevention • Response • Recovering

  35. ADT and Smart Grid • Some Challenges: • Cybersecurity Continued: • “Cyberspace” is • Insecure • Faced with attacks by adversaries who wish to take advantage of our dependence on it • Use of cyberspace subjects us to: • Loss of information • Loss of money • Disruption, destruction, or interruptionof criticalservices

  36. ADT and Smart Grid • Some Challenges: • Cybersecurity Continued: • Adversaries can launch sophisticated “information warfare” • Can destroy critical infrastructure • E.g., Russian cyberattacks on Estonia • E.g., “botnet” attacks on South Korean government and private industry sites. Note: DIMACS project on detection of botnet attacks; planned DIMACS SF on cybersecurity.

  37. ADT and Smart Grid: Summary • Relevance of ADT • Algorithmic methods needed to: • Improve security of energy system in light of its haphazard construction and dynamically changing character • Find early warning of a changed state – anomaly detection

  38. ADT and Smart Grid: Summary • Relevance of ADT • Algorithmic methods needed to: • Identify and overcome vulnerabilities in the system • Protect the privacy of individuals under new data collection methods

  39. ADT and Smart Grid: Summary • Relevance of ADT • Algorithmic methods needed to: • Protect systems operating “close to the edge” • Find new ways to characterize uncertainty in information about the health of the system • Find ways to protect against cyber attacks that take advantage of vulnerabilities created by dependence on massive amounts of data generated through the smart grid.

  40. K.R. Krishnan Linda Ness Tom Reddington

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