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Dayton, Ohio ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change What Are They Thinking?

Dayton, Ohio ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change What Are They Thinking?. Tom Werkema Distinguished Lecturer October 20, 2009. ATTACHMENT K. ASHRAE Will Give You The World. NETWORK. Give Back To ASHRAE. GROW. LEARN. TEACH. SHARE.

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Dayton, Ohio ASHRAE Chapter Climate Change What Are They Thinking?

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  1. Dayton, Ohio ASHRAE ChapterClimate ChangeWhat Are They Thinking? Tom Werkema Distinguished Lecturer October 20, 2009

  2. ATTACHMENT K ASHRAE Will Give You The World NETWORK Give Back To ASHRAE GROW LEARN TEACH SHARE This ASHRAE Distinguished Lecturer is brought to you by the Society Chapter Technology Transfer Committee

  3. Volunteer! Become A Future Leader in ASHRAE - Write The Next Chapter In Your Career ASHRAE Members who attend their monthly chapter meeting become leaders and bring information and technology back to their job. You are needed for: Membership Promotion Research Promotion Student Activities Chapter Technology Transfer Technical Committees Find Your Place in ASHRAE! Visit ashrae.org.

  4. Carbon Counting

  5. Carbon Counting Tools • Calculator Types: • Personal carbon footprint • Carbon emissions from buildings • Carbon calculators with BIM systems • Elements • Energy – single largest contributor • Direct or indirect • Heating, cooling, lighting, appliances • Construction • Of the building • Of the materials used in the building • Transportation of materials to construct

  6. Carbon Counting Tools • Elements (continued) • Water • Both in and out of the building • Solid Waste • Includes decomposition to landfill ghgs • Transportation • Public transit • Building occupant material usage

  7. Building Calculators • Operating & Embodied Energy • The Green Building Energy Suite • The Athena Institute • Carbon numbers for some building sizes/locations • LCA's for over 400 common building assemblies • Impact estimator (purchase) – GWP of project • New, retrofit, major renovations • Institutional, residential, office, industrial • Carbon Construction Calculator • “reduce, renew, offset” • Embodied and construction energy calculator

  8. Building Calculators • Operating & Embodied Energy (con't) • Carbon Footprint • Various carbon calculators • Information about reduction/offsets • Zero Footprint • Variety of calculators

  9. Carbon Calculators • Natural gas – average 12.62 lbs CO2 /Therm • (0.47 lbs CO2/kWhr)‏ • Electricity – 0.97 lbs CO2/kWhr • Average for total US is 1.363 lbs CO2/kWhr • Includes on-site generation

  10. Avg Distribution of Building Emissions

  11. Avg Distribution of Building Emissions, excluding transportation

  12. Carbon Calculation Process • 1) Define boundary • 2) Measure energy flow across boundary • 3) Define carbon factor for each energy supply • EPA Power Profiler, EPA eGRID, NREL Model, CEC/E3 Model • 4) Construction – multiple calculators available • Need to estimate building life as well • 5) Waste • Some waste generates methane • recycle?

  13. Carbon Calculation Process(con’t) • 6) Water • pumping/treatment CO2 emissions (embedded energy) • 7) Transportation • Ground, air • Boundaries • home versus office? • Business versus business

  14. Climate Change

  15. Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for March, 2009, was 15.16 million square kilometers (5.85 million square miles). The magenta line shows the 1979 to 2000 median extent for that month. The black cross indicates the geographic North Pole. Sea Ice Index data.

  16. Figure 1. Arctic sea ice extent for September 2009 was 5.36 million square kilometers (2.07 million square miles), the third-lowest in the satellite record. The magenta line shows the median ice extent for September from 1979 to 2000. Sea Ice Index data. About the data.—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

  17. Figure 5. These images compare ice age, a proxy for ice thickness, in 2007, 2008, 2009, and the 1981 to 2000 average. This year saw an increase in second-year ice (in blue) over 2008. At the end of summer 2009, 32 percent of the ice cover was second-year ice. Three-year and older ice were 19 percent of the total ice cover, the lowest in the satellite record.—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center courtesy C. Fowler and J. Maslanik, University of Colorado at Boulder

  18. Figure 3. September ice extent from 1979 to 2009 shows a continued decline. The September rate of sea ice decline since 1979 has now increased to 11.2 percent per decade. Sea Ice Index data.—Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center

  19. Climate Change 2009 • 5 Meetings plus Copenhagen • Tabled key proposals • Medium (2020) 25-40% and long term (2050) 50-95% • Intellectual Property Rights proposed to be superseded • Dozens of new institutions, funds • Historic responsibility, climate debt, emission debt, shared carbon space, shared atmospheric resources, per capita reductions • No commitments for developing countries • Emissions trading • Sectoral approaches • In 1997 pre-Kyoto had 100 page text • Reduced to 30 pages in Kyoto Protocol • Today 400 pages, and increasing • US will only bring back agreement it will ratify

  20. International Trade Issues • US – Secretary Chu • Carbon tariffs to “level playing field” • China Appeals to Exclude Exports in Climate Deal • “rich countries buying its products should bear responsibility for emissions in manufacturing” • 20% of China’s emissions from exported goods • Others: logistical nightmare, control over production in developing countries? • Subject of House hearings in Spring • Potential tax credits to affected industries • 10 Senate D’s letter to Obama – August 7 • Discussed by EC in 2008, without pursuing today

  21. 1990-2006

  22. 1990-2006

  23. EU F Gas Regulation Key sectors – refrigeration, air-conditioning, heat pumps, high-voltage switchgear • Marketing & use bans limited today • Will be reviewed in 2010 for changes in 2011 • EC looking at Waxman/Markey-Boxer/Reid

  24. EU Mobile A/C Directive • 1/1/11 no new model(platform) MAC fluid > 150 GWP • 1/1/17 no new MAC fluid > 150 GWP • Auto makers may not introduce new models in 2011, 12

  25. EU Emissions Trading Scheme • EU Program • Carbon prices have declined due to economy • Automakers agreed to reduce new car emissions to 130gms/km by 2012-2015 • Firms will receive > 30% carbon allowances free until 2020 • Free allocation for Energy Intensive Industries exposed to C leakage • Rest purchased at auction

  26. Other Developed Countries Japan: Indicated they would start C & T in October Australia: Cap and Trade by 2010 • Pushed back to 2011 • Includes HFCs in common basket • 1100% cost increase will simply pass thru to consumer Canada • HFC restricted to Significant New Activity Notice lists • Mandatory reporting in 2005 • Declared all GHGs CEPA Toxic Sweden: tax proposal $43/pound 134a equivalent

  27. Global Primary Energy: 550 ppmv Transport Buildings Industry Nuc Bio-mass Coal CCS Gas Oil Stabilization scenarios developed for US Climate Change Science Program (Draft 2006) by MIT Joint Program on Science and Policy

  28. Montreal Protocol • Mauritius/Micronesia amendment to add HFC to MP, with HFC only in 2004-6 baseline • EU – wants decision from UNFCCC to mandate reduction schedule, implemented by MP • US, Canada, Mexico – amendment to MP • 2004-2006 baseline HCFCs+HFCs GWP basis • Slightly less stringent than WM thru 2025, 15% residual at end of schedule • Developing country 10% reduction 2016, 85% 2043 • MLF funding for HFCs – to be negotiated • Limits HFC-23 emissions • Leaves unchanged UNFCCC/KP jurisdiction • Production for Developing countries allowed, 10% of baseline • Non Party Imports/Exports banned w/i one year of entry into force • Enters into force 1/1/2011 if 20 Parties ratify

  29. US House – American Climate & Energy Security Act (ACES)(essentially same as Senate version) Voted June 26, 2009

  30. ACES • Passed 219-212 • Need 218 to pass • 44 D against, 8 R for • 3D’s considered bill to weak • 1428 pages – released 5 hours before debate • Senate using ACES as starting point • Reid-Boxer (Clean Energy Jobs & American Power Act) reduced to 821 pages • Reid now admitting 2010 discussions • Obama concurs

  31. ACES • Covers 85% of US emissions • 2005 levels baseline • 3% below by 2012 • 17% below by 2020 • 42% below by 2030 • 83% below by 2050 • Covered Gases – CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6, NF3,, two HFOs • Any other anthropogenic gas determined by EPA

  32. ACES • “Covered entities” – 25,000 MT CO2 • Vehicle fleets > 25,000 MT CO2 • Emissions allowances vary over first 5 years • 4,627 MMT CO2 in 2012 up to 5,482 MMT CO2 in 2016 • Decreases steadily to 1,035 MMT CO2 in 2050 and thereafter

  33. ACES - Auctions • 15% each year, proceeds to low income consumers • Small quantities also auctioned for: worker training, adaptation, wildlife & natural resources

  34. ACES-HFCs • HFC Separate Title – same Clean Air Act Section as HCFCs (Group I) but separate (Group II) • Includes manufactured HFCs, excludes byproducts • 2012 @ 90% of baseline GWP • 2004-2006 average baseline HFCs + HCFCs • 2.5%/yr decline first 6 years (2018), 4%/yr thereafter • 15% of baseline in 2033 • 370 MM TCO2e maximum EPA determined baseline • 280 MM TCO2e minimum baseline

  35. The American Clean Energy and Security Act (HR 2454)Waxman Markey Bill BAU Initial Estimates BAU Latest (Arkema) Estimate Low GWP Shift • Starting basis: GWP 2004-2006, 60% HCFCs+100% HFCs • Presumes EPA allocates at maximum level allowed in 2012 • Senate consideration unknown/on-going • Rights needed to produce/import any HFC Similar to HCFC • Rights not free – auction/fee

  36. McKinsey & CompanyUnlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy – July, 2009 • Energy savings of $1.2t by 2020 • Capital cost of $520b • 1.1 Gt CO2 reduction • 9.1 Quad BTU end use savings • 23% of projected demand • Significant barriers exist • 1) Recognize energy efficiency as energy resource • 2) launch portfolio of emerging, proven, pilot approaches • 3) identify upfront funding resources • $0.0059 per KWH + $1.12 per MMBTU over 10 years (~8%↑) • 4) alignment between utilities, regulators, government, manufacturers, energy consumers • 5) foster innovation

  37. McKinsey & CompanyUnlocking Energy Efficiency in the U.S. Economy – July, 2009 • Energy Consumption per unit floor space, since 1980 • ↓ 11% residential • ↓ 21% commercial • Industrial Energy Consumption ↓ 41% per GDP output

  38. California • 2/28/09 – introduced ban on high GWP • Commercial Refrigeration & AC • GWP>150, commencing in 2020 • Converted to a study in April • Refrigeration regulation – Dec. 2009 • >2,000 pound systems 2011 • 200-2,000 pound 2014 • Certified Techs, no venting, record keeping, registration

  39. US EPA • EPA – Published Final Rule for Reporting • 2010 data, reported in 2011 • 25,000 MT CO equivalent • Deferred HFC production reporting • Voluntary in 2009 • EPA published “endangerment” finding • Applicability of Clean Air Act to GHGs • EPA will publish Product Containing in 2009? • Refrigeration systems only – does not cover foam • Ban on importation, consistent with domestic

  40. EPA Regulatons (con’t) • Auto industry agreement – Proposed Rule • Final expected by early November • 35.5 mpg – corresponding tailpipe emissions (250 gms/mile) • 9-14 gms/mile MAC • 2016 implementation • EPA also to publish HCFC Allocation Rule by 1/1/10? • On September 30, EPA Proposed Rule under CAA – applicability of New Source Review – 25,000 MT CO2e • Applies to all ghgs

  41. Ozone

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