Coastal Planners Climate Change Workshop Adobe Resort, Yachats OR October 25, 2007 Roger Hamilton, Climate Leadership I

1. Coastal Planners Climate Change Workshop Adobe Resort, Yachats OR October 25, 2007 Roger Hamilton, Climate Leadership Initiative University of Oregon hamilton.roger@comcast.net 541-686-4839

2. What is Preparation? • Development and implementation of government, community, and private sector plans for the purpose of ensuring that vital social services and infrastructure, and ecological systems and organisms are prepared to withstand the impacts of climate change • Distinct from mitigation which is the regulatory and private strategy and effort to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gasses and their warming impacts • Preparation needed as a complementary strategy to mitigation until the climate is stabilized in 50 to 100 years

3. The Last 20,000 Years seems to have been Ideal for the Development of Human Societies. Is this a Historic “Sweet Spot” that Enabled Humans to Flourish? 4.5 oC Is this an Anthropomorphic “Sweet Spot”? Agriculture emerges 1.5 oC

4. There is a fundamental asymmetry between the time scales that the climate system reacts to increases in greenhouse gases and the time scales to recover from such increases. There is a fundamental asymmetry between the time scales that the climate system reacts to increases in greenhouse gases and the time scales to recover from such increases. Sea Level Rise will Stabilizes in over 1000 years Reduction CO2 missions sooner, moves these delayed consequences downward and reduces the time required to stabilize the responses. Temperatures Stabilizes in about 500 Hundred years Carbon Dioxide Stabilizes in several Hundred years 100 Years Today 1000 Years

5. Appropriate Design Culture Cool Building

6. Why the Need for Preparation? • Sea level rise, intense winter storms, summer drought, higher average temperatures predicted to cause significant social, economic, and environmental stress in Oregon • State and federal agencies have yet to incorporate climate change into strategic plans (US GAO report, September 2007) • Abraham Lincoln: government role is to protect the commons 6

7. Reasons (continued) • Planning for the future can benefit the present (impacts may be more frequent but similar to past and present) • Local and state government are on front line of emergencies (Katrina) • Proactive preparedness costs less than reactive action • Thinking strategically reduces future risks • Thinking strategically may lead to future benefits (new crops) • Preparedness planning may add value to existing capital improvement plans (expanding water storage or storm treatment facilities)

8. Likely Coastal Impacts (CIG) • Transportation: travel disruption due to landslides, road washouts, and flooding • Infrastructure: need for new or upgraded flood and erosion control structures • Infrastructure: new or upgraded storm water management systems with storm water and sewer overflows • Infrastructure: Increased damage to coastal structures, dunes, beaches due to sea level rise and storm surges • Ecosystems: loss of coastal wetlands due to erosion and sea level rise

9. Coastal Impacts (cont.) • Ecosystems: loss of species if migration corridors blocked • Salt water intrusion into coastal aquifers due to sea level rise • Increased risk of pollution from hazardous waste sites • Loss of cultural and historical sites due to sea level rise

10. Oregon Preparation Policies HB 3543 establishes a Global Warming Commission charged with an outreach strategy to: 1. Educate public on science and impacts 2. Inform on ways to prepare for effects 3. Inform on ways to reduce ghg emissions and an under funded Climate Change Research Institute to support Commission in developing preparation and mitigation strategies

11. Washington Preparation Policies • Climate Impacts Group at UW provides updates on climate science and regional impacts • Just published Preparation Guidebook for local governments: http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/fpt/guidebook.shtml#downloading • Work groups established to develop preparation plans for a number of sectors: ag, forestry, natural systems, coastal infrastructure, estuaries

12. California Preparation Policies • Agencies considering programs and policies related to climate change: Business, Transportation and Housing, Food and Agriculture, Forestry, Natural Resources, and Water Resources • Website: “CA will leverage its vast intellectual and economic resources preparing for foreseeable future impacts and reducing green house gasses.” • “Responding to climate change will not be an additional burden but will, in fact, provide economic development, energy and economic security, and improve public health and safety.”

13. Barriers to Strategic Thinking About Climate Change (King County Report) • I don’t know how it will affect my community? • It should happen at higher levels of government. • I’ll deal with it when I see it happening. • My community wants to focus on ghg reduction. • I’ll deal with it when you tell me exactly what I need to plan for. • I don’t have time or money for it right now. • I don’t have political support. • Our planning and operations are based on historical data not future modeling

15. Oregon Preparation Policies cross-cutting through Five Focus Groups: Business, Human Services, Natural Systems, Built Systems, Conservation • Use land-use codes to remove people and buildings from hazard areas • Peg insurance premiums to hazard risk • Integrate climate change into existing sustainability programs • Ensure public is informed and educated on impacts and risks • Scale down impact data to local level

16. Preparation Strategies for Building Design and Construction(Based on meeting with architects and public infrastructure managers) • Add cooling systems • Expand storm drainage • Build protection against severe storm events: wind and precipitation • Provide more water storage (rainwater collection) in drought areas • Vector protection (the screened porch)

17. Forthe built environment: (continued) • Revise building codes and performance standards to better meet climate-related stresses • Amend state and local land-use plans to avoid hazard areas and to site residences closer to work and public transportation • Make the building recommissioning process more robust

18. Agency Policies for Natural Systems (Based on meeting with natural scientists) • Proactively link climate change into agency programs and land-use codes • Implement carbon-neutral forest management planning • Make better use of existing state and federal wetlands law • Account for both surface and groundwater in water permitting • Reduce invasive species (may accelerate with rising CO2 • Exchange function for function in transportation mitigation • Use natural costal morphology for sea-level armoring • Prevent deforestation through land-use amendments 18

19. For human services: (based on meeting with public health and emergency service managers) • Fund climate change planning now to ensure that future generations are not overburdened with the costs of preparation • Connect climate change to established sustainability initiatives • Implement sustainability at every level of government • Provide a climate change rainy day disaster relief fund • Amend land-use laws to account for climate changes • Develop a new Oregon benchmark to measure progress in preparation for climate change

20. Policies for Businesses (based on meeting with • Oregon business reps) • Incorporate climate policies into existing sustainability • policies • Link preparation and mitigation measures • Link preparation and economic development opportunities • Coordinate research agendas across states and regions

21. Business Preparation (cont.) • Adopt risk-management approach • Adopt a 75 year planning horizon • Require climate change observation and monitoring systems • Prevent preparation in one sector or region from having negative impacts on another

22. Coastal Preparation Strategiesand Policies • Consider state coastal goal plan amendment • Amend county and city land-use plans to site new buildings outside of hazard zones subject to sea level rise, storm surges, and riverine flooding • Use natural systems and coastal morphology for storm buffering and sea-level rise armoring

23. Data Gaps • Data on pathogens and allergens • Data on local temperature and precipitation trends and forecasts • Updated flood plain maps • Data on changes in river hydrology, coastal sand supply, and sea level rise • Information on viable approaches to coastal armoring • Data on the cost of specific preparation measures

24. UO CLIMATE LEADERSHIP INITIATIVE • Greenhouse Gas Quantification and Impact Assessments • Low-Carbon Sustainable Economic Development • Climate Policy and Program Development • Private Access Local Government Web-based • Discussion Board • Climate Change Science Updates • E-mail alerts on climate change issues • Neighborhood Climate Change Program • Website: http://climlead.uoregon.edu • E-mail: grh@uoregon.edu (Roger Hamilton) 24