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The Expanding European Union A Continental Power

The Expanding European Union A Continental Power. Graham Avery National Centre for Research on Europe University of Canterbury, NZ 12 May 2006. Summary. Why has EU enlarged so often? Recent expansion : from 15 to 25 The process The results Future expansion : what limits?

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The Expanding European Union A Continental Power

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  1. The Expanding European UnionA Continental Power Graham Avery National Centre for Research on Europe University of Canterbury, NZ 12 May 2006

  2. Summary • Why has EU enlarged so often? • Recent expansion : from 15 to 25 • The process • The results • Future expansion : what limits? • Prospective members • Possible members • Unsolved problems of expansion • Why is EU enlargement interesting & important

  3. Why has EU enlarged ? • Success of European method of integration: magnetic attraction • Globalisation: small countries in big world • Reunification of continent after Cold War • Extending prosperity & security • EU’s enlargement strategy • reactive, not proactive

  4. Previous expansionsFrom 6 to 15 • First round (1973) • United Kingdom, Ireland, Denmark • Southern round (1981, 1986) • Greece, Portugal, Spain • EFTA round (1995) • Austria, Sweden, Finland

  5. Recent expansionFrom 15 to 25 (2004)Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Slovenia, Cyprus, Malta • Hesitations of existing members • Conditions (Copenhagen 1993) • Long preparation for membership • Complex accession negotiations • Conditionality: wonderful leverage • Differentiation: tough love

  6. Results • Population + 20%, economy + 5% • Not a dramatic increase • From 15 to 25 actors • A quantum leap • Effects on EU policies • Agricultural policy • Cohesion policy • Budget

  7. Effects on EU foreign policy • Relations with USA, Russia • Creation of European Neighbourhood Policy • Coverage: • Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt • Israel, Jordan, Palestine Authority, Syria • Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Russia (nyet) • plus Georgia, Azerbaijan, Armenia • Aims & instruments • Encircle EU with a ‘ring of friends’ • ‘More than partnership, less than membership’ • Action plans

  8. Future expansion Prospective members • Bulgaria & Romania • 2007 or 2008 • Western Balkans • Croatia, Serbia, Bosnia, Macedonia, Albania • Turkey • the big question • The forgotten enlargement • Norway, Iceland, Switzerland

  9. ‘An important reason for further enlargements on strategic grounds (is that) the Union has no other equally effective foreign policy tool to shape its unstable environment. • In other words, it can hardly do without further enlargements’ Jan Zielonka, Europe as Empire, 2006

  10. Possible members • A long list … • Where are the EU’s final frontiers? • Is Europe in the heart, or on the map? • Should we fix the limits now? • Unsolved problems of expansion: • Neighbourhood policy : how to provide security & prosperity without EU membership • Governance : how to ensure that widening does not weaken EU

  11. ‘The problem is to reconcile our tradition of national sovereignty and democratic self-government with our attempt to create a system of continental scale, so as to achieve goals which go beyond the power of the nation state. • The basic dilemma for the EU is to reconcile the expansion required for its economic efficiency, its security, and its external power with a sense of solidarity and legitimacy among its multinational citizens’ Dominic Lieven, The Russian Empire and its Rivals, 2002

  12. Why EU enlargement is interestingfor European studies • Systematically interrogative • What ? How ? Widening vs. deepening • Existential in nature • Not foreign policy • Transformative in character • Soft power at work • Institutionally illuminating • Intergovernmental process, but … • Ongoing • An unfinished journey

  13. Why EU enlargement is importantfor New Zealand • Europe is an important partner of NZ • Economically : for bilateral & multilateral trade • Politically : shared values & interests • EU now operates on a continental scale • NZ can access new member countries • Economic effects of enlargement • Expands market, drives growth in EU • Political effects of enlargement • Reconfigures EU’s role as actor in world affairs • with or without the Constitutional Treaty

  14. My bibliography • The Commission’s Perspective on the EFTA Accession Negotiations, Sussex European Institute Working Paper no. 12, 1995 • Avery G. & Cameron F., The Enlargement of the European Union, Sheffield Academic Press, 1998 • Chapter on ‘Enlargement Negotiations’ in Cameron F., The Future of Europe: Integration and Enlargement, Routledge, 2004 • Chapter on ‘Enlargement & Wider Europe’ in Bomberg E. & Stubb A, The EU: How Does It Work?, Oxford University Press, 2nd ed. forthcoming

  15. The Expanding European UnionA Continental Power Graham Avery National Centre for Research on Europe University of Canterbury, NZ 12 May 2006

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