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Predicting NFL Team Performance, a Closer Look at Fantasy Football

Predicting NFL Team Performance, a Closer Look at Fantasy Football. ECE 539 Presented: 12/14/2010 Joseph Quigley. Objective. Train a multi-layer perceptron network to predict the regular season records of NFL Football teams. (Within a range.) Wins in a season: 0-3 4-8 9-12 13-16.

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Predicting NFL Team Performance, a Closer Look at Fantasy Football

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  1. Predicting NFL Team Performance, a Closer Look at Fantasy Football ECE 539 Presented: 12/14/2010 Joseph Quigley

  2. Objective • Train a multi-layer perceptron network to predict the regular season records of NFL Football teams. (Within a range.) • Wins in a season: • 0-3 • 4-8 • 9-12 • 13-16

  3. Purpose • Creates a simple way to turn projected fantasy football statistics into projected wins and losses. • To have the ability to create hypothetical teams and estimate how many games they would win in a season. • What if the 2008 Lions (winless) went back in time and traded defenses with the 2000 Ravens (one of the best defenses in recent history)? • What if the 2007 Patriots (only 16-0 team ever) traded defenses with the 2006 Redskins (one of the worst defenses in recent memory, and in the last 10 years of fantasy football)?

  4. Data • Fantasy Football statistics (2005-2010): • Quarterback • Running back • Wide Receiver • Tight End • Kicker • Defense/Special Teams • Team Vector

  5. What-if Analysis • Can’t just add another teams fantasy defense/ST value. • Needed to modify offensive production based on turnovers. • Calculated number of offensive possessions in a season, then the fraction of fantasy points per possession. • Multiplied this by the difference in turnovers between the new and the old defense.

  6. Preliminary What-if results: • 2008 Lions/2000 Ravens – Win: 6.6-9.6 games • 2008 Lions/2000 Broncos – Win: 7.4-10.4 games • 2007 Patriots/2006 Redskins – Win: 6.4-9.6 games.

  7. Predicting the 2010-2011 Season

  8. Questions?

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