James Salsman jim@talknicer Sustainability Jam 22-24 November 2013 CBi China Bridge, Shanghai

1. A quick variety of business models promoting, effecting, and compatible with sustainability一个快速多元的经营模式持续地相互促进，影响，兼容talknicer.com/susjam James Salsman jim@talknicer.com Sustainability Jam 22-24 November 2013 CBi China Bridge, Shanghai

2. Introduction to James Salesman詹姆斯塞尔斯曼的简介 • Carnegie Mellon-trained statistician working since the 1990s on pronunciation assessment using speech recognition for language learning and at EF in Shanghai since May 2013. • 卡耐基梅隆训练有素的统计学者，自1990年开始从事语音识别软件开发工作。2013年5月来到上海，目前在英孚教育机构工作。 • Hobbies include evaluating peer reviewed secondary academic journal literature, which uses statistics to describe the confidence and significance of inferences, and editing Wikipedia. • 业余爱好包括评论同行业的学术文献，通过统计数据来推论事物的发展方向，和编辑维基百科 • http://talknicer.com/about talknicer.com/susjam

3. This is what we must do to survive这是我们为了生存必须做的 45亿吨级的二氧化碳 在过去十年里没有放慢 要求减少50％的几率不超过2摄氏度 石油危机 战后繁荣 大萧条 talknicer.com/susjam

4. We will do it, because solar and wind power are growing so fast我们将能做到这一点，因为太阳能和风能电力增长非常快 能源生产(亿吨标准油) 石油 煤炭 天燃气 水电 核能 风能 生物燃料 太阳能 地热能 talknicer.com/susjam

5. Even if solar power did not exist, wind power alone is growing fast enough即使不存在太阳能、单凭风能的增长速度也足够快 全球累积风外推 十亿瓦特 talknicer.com/susjam

6. Scope of this talk does not include:这个话题的范围不包括: • Any business opportunities that existing companies are likely to be able to address • 公司有可能实现的经济价值 • Traditional forms of renewable energy • 传统形式的可再生能源 • Synthetic carbon neutral fuels: require large chemical engineering infrastructure • 合成碳中性燃料:需要的大型化学工程基础设施 • Petro-conglomerates already have this佩特罗集团已经有这个 • Batteries: very competitive industry电池:竞争非常激烈的行业 • Pumped hydro storage: constrained by geography • 抽水蓄能存储:受地理限制 • Compressed air storage: too new for likely success • 压缩空气存储:太新,可能成功 talknicer.com/susjam

7. Shipping container-based wind power航运基于容器的风力发电 • Makani Power (acquired by Google, 2012) • 马卡尼电力公司(被谷歌收购,2012) • http://www.makanipower.com/home/ • Likely to very rapidly displace traditional tower-based wind farms, including by scrapping • 可能很快取代传统的塔式风力农场,包括撤掉 • Because they cost less than half and produce twice as much per land area, and they can go on ordinary trucks • 因为在相同的土地面积里，他们产生的费用相对少了一半,产出却多了两倍,并且他们可以用普通的卡车运作 • Logistics of marketing, sales, installation, grid integration, support and repair services vastly larger than current Makani staffing levels can support. • 物流的市场营销、销售、安装、网格集成、支持和维修服务远远大于目前的马卡尼员工可承受的水平。 • Google is very likely to outsource these efforts • 谷歌很可能将这些工作外包出去 talknicer.com/susjam

8. Shipping container-based wind power航运基于容器的风力发电 M5规格 翼 翼梁:碳纤维 翼皮肤: E-玻璃 额定功率:5mw 一代系统:8无刷直流电机 范围 满额定功率风速:11.5米/秒 操作高度范围:350 - 600 m talknicer.com/susjam 结构:略高于钢制碳纤维 导体:铝 盘旋半径:265米

9. Shipping container-based wind power航运基于容器的风力发电 机翼面积是一个传统的沿其路径圈模仿的涡轮叶片。像一架飞机,襟翼在机翼上,由机载计算机推动控制飞行路径的翼。 翼装转子捕获风能因为它冲刷过机翼,并把它转化为电能，用小的,直流驱动发电机 范围是由一个核心的高强度纤维导体包围。缆索携带牵引力的机翼传输电力到地面 1,在启动前,在不利的条件下,翼是装在顶部的晶石浮标 3、在操作中,翼盘旋在一个圆形的在海拔400米路径上。 2、翼启动和平地盘旋像直升机那样 talknicer.com/susjam

10. Shipping container-based wind power航运基于容器的风力发电 AWT风筝农场安装 在缆索长度 talknicer.com/susjam

11. Seawater carbon extraction 海水碳萃取 • Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) owns this: • 帕洛阿尔托研究中心(PARC)拥有这个: • http://talknicer.com/co2extraction.pdf • These will manifest as likely very large or outright giant plants on ocean ports • 这些都将表现为海岸的可能非常大或非常彻底的巨型植物 • Very opaque commercialization prospects很不透明的商业化前景 • PARC may be fielding lock-up offers from petroleum companies who are likely to be severely disrupted • 由于可能受到严重干扰，PARC也许会从石油公司发出禁售公告。 • However, their DARPA funding contract almost certainly requires reasonable and customary licensing terms • 然而，他们的DARPA资金合同几乎肯定需要合理和符合惯例的许可条款 • Coastal and island jurisdictions may choose to opt out of patent encumbrance on national security grounds • 沿海和岛屿国家的司法可能以国家安全为由选择取消专利阻碍 talknicer.com/susjam

12. Seawater carbon extraction海水碳萃取 正极 负极 电极溶液出 膜堆 阳极(+) 海水在(底) 电极溶液进 BPMED单位 海水进(酸) 底座出 酸析 真空泵 电源 阀门 二氧化碳流量计 PH值传感器 BPMED单位 泵 膜接触器 膜接触器 压力表 电极液 二氧化碳解析装置 输入罐（海水） 流量传感器 talknicer.com/susjam 抽水 电极溶液 废物收集箱

13. Income equality收入平等 • Very complicated political history, but a mistake by Yale Professor Arthur Okun is the source of most of the confusion: • 非常复杂的政治历史,但是普林斯顿教授的一个错误困惑是有关于能源的问题 • http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/2011/09/berg.htm • Very profound and wide-ranging implications, especially in China • 非常深刻和广泛的影响,特别是在中国 • New unoccupied property transaction tax: 20% • 新的空置房产交易税收:20% • Property tax announced last weekNew down-payment for second urban home: • 70% 上周宣布,房产税—新首付第二城市家庭:70% • Likely to cause continued sharp increases in the broad healthcare sectors• • 可能导致在广泛的医疗保健行业持续迅速增长 talknicer.com/susjam

14. Income equality收入平等 收入增长周期的长短跟不同的影响因素有关，这就使得收入分配显得相当重要,而其他影响因素较小 (改变预期增长持续时间、百分比) 外国直接投资 汇率竞争力 外部债务 收入分配 政治机构 贸易开放 talknicer.com/susjam

15. High-yield bond funds高收益债券基金 • Likely destination of most Chinese investment savings as real estate becomes less attractive • 大多数中国人利用储蓄投资房地产变得不那么有吸引力 • Stock market is far too volatile under command economy • 在中央调控经济下的股市太动荡 • Chinese bond market has been remarkably stable and consistent, including through crises • 中国债券市场一直相当稳定一致,包括经历危机的时候 • Returns have been about half of investment grade U.S. high-yield bond funds with 30+ constituents • 回报率大约达到一半的美国投资型高收益债券基金与30+成分股 talknicer.com/susjam

16. High-yield bond funds高收益债券基金 上海证券交易所综合 上海证券交易所债券指数 标准普尔500指数 talknicer.com/susjam

17. Shareholder activism and resolution supportservices股东的积极性和决议的支持服务 • As the “1% who stand with the 99%” age and become more active as shareholders, they are likely to become extremely successful • “1%的人掌握世界99%的财富，活跃的股东,可能会非常 成功 • However, pushing shareholder resolutions requires delegate attendance at shareholder meetings and limited power of attorney actions • 然而,推动股东决议需要委托出席股东会议和有限力量的委托措施 • Such actions are easy to outsource to service bureaus, if and only if such services are being offered • 这样的操作很容易外包给服务局，当且仅当可以提供这样的服务 • Examples: fossil fuel divestment, CEO pay caps, strengthening social security, etc. • 例子:化石燃料撤资,CEO薪酬限制,加强社会保障等。 talknicer.com/susjam

18. Questions?有问题吗？ jim@talknicer.com Thank you! talknicer.com/susjam