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Chris Llull a , Uwe A. Schneider a,b , Petr Havlik b ,

COMPETITIVE ECONOMIC POTENTIALS of NON-FOOD OPTIONS International Food Security Impacts of European Non-Food Options. Chris Llull a , Uwe A. Schneider a,b , Petr Havlik b , Michael Obersteiner b , Ingo Huck a , Bruno Dorin c , Timm Sauer a Erwin Schmid d

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Chris Llull a , Uwe A. Schneider a,b , Petr Havlik b ,

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  1. COMPETITIVE ECONOMIC POTENTIALS of NON-FOOD OPTIONSInternational Food Security Impacts of European Non-Food Options Chris Llull a, Uwe A. Schneider a,b, Petr Havlik b, Michael Obersteiner b, Ingo Huck a, Bruno Dorin c, Timm Sauer a Erwin Schmid d a Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, Germany b International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria c French Agricultural Research Centre for International Development (CIRAD), France d University of Natural Resources and Applied Life Sciences, Vienna, Austria

  2. Increasing concerns about the sustainability of bioenergy. Impact of bioenergy on the food system. In a context of population, economic growth and resource scarcity. Introduction

  3. Regional Resolution

  4. p S CS p* PS D q q* Exogenous Parameters POPULATION GROWTH ECONOMIC GROWTH WATER SUPPLY FOOD DEMAND LAND SUPPLY BIOENERGY TECHNICAL PROGRESS CO2 TAX DEFORESTATION

  5. Food Price Food Trade Food Consumption Food Composition Food Security Main Output

  6. Population growth: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 100% of 2030 Economic growth: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 100% of 2030 Bioenergy: IIASA GGI A2r baseline 10 levels up to 10% of total energy demand by 2030 Technical progress: 20% increase in productivity Environmental policies: Carbon taxes 100 $ / ton Deforestation: allowed or not allowed Scenarios

  7. GLOBAL LEVEL FOOD PRICE

  8. GLOBAL LEVEL FOOD CONSUMPTION

  9. yield bioenergy tax Tax & yield

  10. bioenergy yield

  11. GLOBAL LEVEL FOOD COMPOSITION

  12. yield Tax & yield bioenergy tax

  13. Tax & yield yield bioenergy tax

  14. REGIONAL LEVEL FOOD TRADE

  15. REGIONAL LEVEL FOOD CONSUMPTION

  16. REGIONAL LEVEL FOOD COMPOSITION

  17. SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA FOOD SECURITY

  18. Tax & yield tax yield bioenergy

  19. yield bioenergy

  20. All regions are affected Food consumption and food composition are affected Non linear effects Bioenergy emphasizes the degradation of the nutritional situation in Sub-Saharan Africa Technical progress overcomes the negative impact on both food consumption and food composition only if deforestation is allowed. Overview of the Results

  21. A competitive market is assumed. Institutional or infrastructure related developments are ignored overestimation No endogenous revenue from the agricultural sector due to increasing food prices and production of bioenergy underestimation Major Limitations

  22. Conclusion NON-FOOD USE DEFORESTATION FOOD SECURITY • The model can deliver possible combination of the different outputs (production frontiers) • Determining the optimal development pathway requires to define priorities based on social value of the competing outputs

  23. Thank you

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