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Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play

Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play. Dr Paul Williamson Dept. of Geography University of Liverpool. Current MSM in the UK: an overview. Synthetically estimated spatial microdata. Telephony: 2005/6. Simulated household weekly telephone bill (landlines) (FES 2005/6)

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Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play

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  1. Microsimulation in the UK: the current state of play Dr Paul Williamson Dept. of Geography University of Liverpool

  2. Current MSM in the UK: an overview

  3. Synthetically estimated spatial microdata

  4. Telephony: 2005/6 • Simulated household weekly telephone bill (landlines) (FES 2005/6) • EEDA, LSOA level • Ward level comparison with BT billing data (EEDA, Ward level) • Spearman rho = 0.7796, p < 0.001

  5. Validation: • (Spearman rho = 0.8404, p < 0.001) • Strong correlation with Census 2001 ‘work time’ Simulated ‘work time’ ONS Time-Use Survey (2001) and Census 2001 East of England, LSOA

  6. 2001 2011 % More happy than usual

  7. OPERA (1) Costs (% disposable income) of various Local Tax structures

  8. (2) Change in costs given changing Dementia prevalence

  9. MOSES Workflow Research Object Portlet

  10. ‘Conventional’ migration distribution procedure Simulation Database 1 Update Location and Dwelling Characteristics 5 Migrant generation model 2 2 Aggregate To Migrant Population Aggregate To Vacant Dwellings Spatial Interaction Model 3 Compute dwelling preference for each migrant 4

  11. ABM in MOSES Observed MSM ABM

  12. Modelling Individual Consumer Behaviour

  13. ABM v. MSM?

  14. The Global Epidemic Simulator t1 t2 t3 t4

  15. Modelling Needs and Resources of Older People to 2030 (MAP2030)

  16. SOCSIM

  17. Average number of living grand children and grand parents (complete)

  18. Need to simulate pensions & retirement CARESIM: adding new cohort of people now aged 45-64 +

  19. CONCLUSION In a number of fields UK MSM is world-leading Challenges All models Maintenance/updating/upgrading/validation Increased collaboration Increasing user base Academic models Greater public policy influence

  20. SPARES

  21. Behavioural Labour Supply Modelling U Household Income (yh ) h*=maxh U= U( h, yh| X) Hours of labour supplied by household (h)

  22. S-Paramics

  23. FEARLUS – Land use model (ABM) • Yellow: actual forestry • Green: suitable for forestry • Red: ownership boundaries • Land use is based on more than suitability and (simple) economics • i.e. Sociological factors (owner preferences) • e.g. Grouse shooting

  24. £ FEARLUS-W Land use selection Calculation of Return Climate Land Uses Estimated Yield Market Conditions Land use Biophysical properties Yearly Cycle Estimated Social Acceptability Pollution Return Before Neighbours’ Approval/Disapproval After Social Interactions Land sales

  25. Year 12 Year 14 Year 16 Year 17 With Social Approval No Reward

  26. SimDELTA – model processes

  27. Transport test: M18 spur New junction

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