Theory and Terrorism

1. Theory and Terrorism PO 483: The Politics of Terrorism

2. What is Theory? • A theory is an interrelated set of logically consistent and parsimonious fact-like statements about a broad class of similar phenomena with the ultimate goal of explaining and predicting occurrences within that class

3. What is the Purpose of Theory? • Answer Important Questions Relating to a Certain Class of Phenomena • Generalization of Causes and Effects • Reduce the complexity of real-world phenomena • Provides Means for Understanding Events with Multiple and Sometimes Conflicting Impetuses

4. Why is the Use of Theory Important to the Study of Terrorism? • Several researchers have claimed that terrorist violence is best studied atheoretically • Such researchers feel that the configuration of factors leading to terrorist violence is unique to each situation, and so defies attempts at generalization • Indeed, many components of counterterrorism in the policy realm reflect this lack of focus on theory

5. Why is the Use of Theory Important to the Study of Terrorism? • However, there are indications that a theoretical approach to terrorism is likely to be fruitful in answering several broad and important questions associated with the topic • Which types of individuals are likely to join terrorist groups? • What historical trends have led to the vast increase in terrorist violence in the past three decades? • Exactly when are certain groups likely to choose terrorism as their preferred mode of insurgency? • What types of tactics will terrorist groups (or different types of terrorist groups) use?

6. Theory and Terrorism: Rationality • Logical Behavior? Reasonable Behavior? • Problem of Subjectivity • Scientific Definition: • Individual recognizes choices and respective outcomes • Ranks favorability of outcomes • Acts to achieve most favorable outcomes, within constraints of COST, INCOMPLETE INFORMATION, and STRATEGIC INTERACTION

7. Theory and Terrorism: Psychology • Unlike rationality, psychology claims that individual actions are the result of the mental need to equilibrate one’s psyche • Thus, actions are not necessarily relatable to any cost/benefit calculation or deliberate action, but may be the result of deep-seated psychological needs • From this perspective, formative experiences and the need for acceptance and belonging can drive action

8. Theory and Terrorism: Realism • Even some of the theoretical propositions associated with major IR theories can be germane to the study of terrorism • Classical Realism • Human Imperfection (Hobbes) • Centrality of Power (Thucydides) • Anarchy Prevails • Foreign Before Domestic Considerations (Governments are Key Actors) • Promote Peace by Preparing for War

9. Which Realist Lessons May Be Important to the Study of Terrorism? • Imperfection and Anarchy • State is Central Actor in Traditional IR • Power is Either the Central Goal or Central Means in IR • *Since Actors Use Power to Get What They Want, the Distribution of Power Capabilities Across a System Explains Political Activity and Outcomes

10. Theory and Terrorism - Liberalism • Human Perfectibility - Human Nature is Essentially Good, or at Least Perfectible Via Education; Altruism and Morality can Prevail • Institutional Choice and Peace • Cooperation Can Prevail in Anarchy; War is Made by Selfish People Who Have Not Yet Been Educated or Who Have Established Faulty Institutions

11. Theory and Terrorism: Two Important Liberal Propositions • The Democratic Peace • Democratic Peoples Have to do the Fighting, and Are Generally Averse to it; Democratic Leaders, Beholden to the Wishes of People, Do Their Bidding • Democratic Institutions Allow For More Thorough Consideration of Issues During Crises, Forcing More Pacifistic and Reasoned Decision-Making

12. Theory and Terrorism: Two Important Liberal Propositions • Interdependence Theory • Global Interconnection; Sovereignty Diminishing • Power is No Longer States’ Primary Concern; Numerous Issues Have Become More Important (Economy, Technology) • Traditional Power Resources (i.e., Capacity to Use Force) Less Applicable or Useful; Shift in Issue Importance Means Different Actors Are Powerful in Different Issue Areas • Necessitates Reliance Upon Institutions to Set Agendas

13. Components of Existing Theoretical Frameworks Germane to the Study of Terrorism • Individuals act strategically to maximize benefit in an uncertain and potentially dangerous world (Rationality) • Individuals view the world based on their formative experiences, and act to fulfill needs to belong and to be accepted (Psychology) • Relative power is a very important consideration in political relations (Realism)

14. Components of Existing Theoretical Frameworks Germane to the Study of Terrorism • Technological advances, coupled with the decreasing applicability of the use of force by the state, means: • There are many more important actors in the political realm in addition to states • Considerations other than the simple distribution of military capabilities across states are also important determinants of power (Liberalism) • Leaders of different types of states are sensitive to different audiences. Democratic leaders must concern themselves with the opinion of the electorate if they wish to remain in power (Liberalism)