NBS-M016 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy 2010

1. N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science DirectorCRedProject HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation Section 8 Section 7 Section 5 Section 9 NBS-M016 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy 2010 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

2. 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES 4.1. CURRENT AND PROJECTED USAGE Projected Saturation Population in 2050 -- 10000 M consumption averages current UK value Requirement in 2050 = 50 TW i.e. 5 x 1013 W. consumption reaches current USA value Requirement in 2050 = 100 TW i.e. 10 times current demand Range of forecasts 20 - 100 TW with a likely value in range 30 - 50 TW (say 40 TW).

3. 4.2 PROJECTED LIFESPAN OF RESOURCES decades:- centuries: millennia: projected average consumption of 40 TW annual consumption will be:- 1.25 x 1021 J Compare this to the Current World Proven Reserves:- Oil Reserves:- 5 x 1021 J Gas Reserves:- 4 x 1021 J Uranium:- 1 x 1021 J Coal Reserves:- 2.6 x 1022 J Uranium (Fast Breeder):- 1 x 1023 J Fusion (Deuterium):- 1 x 1030 J Oil Shales 235U, Tar sands, Gas, Oil, 232Th Coal, Geothermal, D – T fusion, 238U, D – D fusion

4. 4.3 "RENEWABLE ENERGY RESOURCES" Orders of magnitude only Practically Achievable:- 1010 - Tidal (i.e. 1 x 1010 to 1 x 1011) 1011 - Geothermal; OTEC; Biomass; Wastes 1012 - Hydro; Wind; Waves 1013 – Solar Projected demand is 40 TW – 4 x 1013 W

5. 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

6. Geothermal NON-SOLAR 30 60+ 10 Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand Tidal 3 50 1 France, Russia, China Theoretical Practical Realised to date TW GW GW 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

7. SOLAR Direct Geothermal NON-SOLAR 30 60+ 10 Italy, Iceland, USA, New Zealand (on land) Tidal 3 30000 30000 50 1.8 electrical 0.2 Active Solar 1 France, Russia, China USA, Israel: third world Theoretical Practical Realised to date TW GW GW 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

8. Solar Pump Normal hot water circuit Solar Circuit 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

9. 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

10. 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES - Solar It is all very well for South East, but what about the North? House in Lerwick, Shetland Isles - less than 15,000 people live north of this in UK!

11. 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

12. 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

13. SOLAR Indirect Wind 30 1000 47 and rising rapidly USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 2200MW in UK Theoretical Practical Realised to date TW GW GW 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

14. OTEC Waves SOLAR Indirect 3 30 300 30 0.001 0.01 USA UK, Norway, Japan Wind 30 1000 63 and rising rapidly USA, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Spain ~ 3000 MW in UK Theoretical Practical Realised to date TW GW GW 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES

15. 4. POTENTIAL OF ENERGY RESOURCES Hydrogen????

16. The Star of the East

17. International Airport country park Approx 1km 3

18. turbine viewing & display gallery river walk & quay energy station floating farmers market (proposed residential development) 2

19. R & D, factories of the future 4

20. interactive learning centre working environmental organisations (country park) 5

21. low carbon residential ring market 6

22. Star of the East Alsop Architects

23. View from Thorpe Station The STAR will be 50% higher than the pylons which will be demolished

24. N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science DirectorCRedProject HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation ENV-M558 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy 2009 5. CONSERVATION - BARRIERS 24

25. 5. CONSERVATION - BARRIERS • 5.1 GOVERNMENTAL • preference to support supply rather than conservation; • long term historic memories, • consequential political overtones if they under estimate future supply requirements. • where grants have been made available, they have often been too late, and too restrictive - and deterred those who have made an investment in the past from doing so in the future. • situation now changing - although somewhat restrictive • Is the method adopted in US during the Carter Administration a preferential one? 25

26. 5.1 GOVERNMENTAL BARRIERS • lack of / or inadequate legislation to promote conservation (2006 Building Regulations do address some issues, but they are too late and there are still loop holes - so encourages minimum compliance rather than promoting conservation.) • delays in decision making favour supply rather than conservation • reluctance at Local Government Level to implement tougher measures - e.g. Building Industry who argue against such measures - Exceptions:- Southampton City Council; Milton Keynes. • reluctance to promote strategies which could cost Government votes at next election (e.g. higher taxation on petrol etc.) - many measures take a period longer than lifetime of Government to become effective. • enactment of legislation which is has loose or incorrect wording:- 1947 Electricity Act in UK. Conservation Bill in US in 1979. 26

27. 5.2 VESTED INTERESTS • manufacturing industries continuing to promote out of date products and/or energy wasteful products - or to give Pseudo-Conservation Information. • retailers promoting products on the capital outlay, or other attributes, and not energy consumption. • competition between supply industries leads them to promote their products which may not always be the most energy conserving - e.g. off peak heating with electricity. [less of a problem these days] • scheduling of TV programs • cowboy firms making unsubstantiated claims. • preference to view Energy Conservation in terms of MONETARY saving rather than Resource saving. 27

28. 5.3 ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES • Incorporation of retrospective pollution controls usually INCREASES energy consumption. • e.g. Removal of SO2 leads to:- • a) reduced efficiency at power stations, hence increased CO2 • b) as SO2 is converted even more CO2 is produced • c) Limestone required from Peak District etc. • d) Disposal of waste Gypsum • Additional Transport needed to power stations • FGD plant are large - comparable to size of power station • (excluding cooling towers). 28

29. 5. CONSERVATION - DIFFICULTIES • 5.4 PHYSICAL LIMITATIONS • laws of thermodynamics limit efficiency of energy conversion. • climate affects energy consumption • geological resources in a country will affect utilisation of energy. • e.g. it makes sense to use electricity for heating in • Norway which has abundant hydro-electricity, • but not in UK. • 5.5 TECHNICAL PROBLEMS • old buildings/appliances which have a long life so improvements in energy efficiency will take time to become effective. • difficulty in making perfect machine • difficulty in achieving high insulation standards in brick built buildings 29

30. 5.6 SOCIAL ATTITUDES • desire for greater thermal comfort. Comfort temperatures have risen over last 30 years. • desire for greater mobility. • desire for smaller households in larger and individual buildings (unlike many other European Countries). • come to depend on reliability of energy supply • (contrast situation in late 50's). • purchasing larger and more energy wasteful appliances -e.g. tumbler dryers, freezers etc. • disregarding notices/adverts designed to promote energy conservation. • short memories - previous high costs of energy are forgotten when energy becomes cheap. • sliding back into old habits. • energy conservation not often seen as important as direct investment even when the returns are much greater. • decisions made on impulse with little regard to energy used. 30

31. The Behavioural Dimension • Household size has little impact on electricity consumption. • Consumption varies by up to a factor of 9 for any given household size. • Allowing for Income still shows a range of 6 or more. • Education/Awareness is important 31

32. 5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS • We expect a pay back for any investment in a short period • Assessment of an Energy project depends not only on the rate of return we expect (allowing for inflation etc.) which is related to the Discount Rate, but on how fuel prices are seen to change in the future. • In the mid 1970's, it was predicted by many that the REAL price of energy would at least double by the end of the century. • In practice energy is now cheaper in real terms than in 1970's • Widely fluctuating fuel prices, and expectations on return can create a STOP GO attitude towards rational spending on Energy saving projects. • In Industry, Energy Saving has to compete with increased productivity. • A new process which takes half the space of an old equivalent one, produces the same number of items in half the time would be favoured EVEN if it consumed 50-100% more in Energy (as labour costs would be reduced and profits increased because the price of Energy is TOO LOW). 32

33. Present Value Renewables/conservation nuclear nuclear coal coal +ve -ve Discount Rate 5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS • The choice of a particular Discount Rate will load the dice in favour of a particular option if only Economics is used in decision making EVEN IF EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS ARE INCLUDED. • Fig. 5.1 Effect of Discount Rate on Economic Viability of Energy Projects High Discount Rates favour Coal Medium Discount Rates favour Nuclear Low/zero/negative Discount Rates favour Conservation and Renewables Capital Costs 33

34. Energy Demand Business as Usual Technical fix Low growth 2004 Time 5.7 ECONOMIC BARRIERS 1973 Projection 34

35. N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science DirectorCRedProject HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation NBS-M016 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy 2010 7. Conservation Possibilities 35

36. 7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES. •  Technical •  Education •  Energy Management • Technical Measures will have limited impact on energy consumption if people are not educated to use energy wisely. • Energy Management is a key aspect in energy conservation • A good Energy Manager will:- • Assess Energy Demand - record keeping • Analyse Energy Demand - examine trends relating to physical factors • Advise on technical and other methods to promote energy conservation • Advertiseand publicise ways to save energy • Accountfor energy consumed 36

37. Significant saving are possible by reducing waste in conversion of energy to secondary fuels. Significant savings are possible in some area in end use appliance efficiency - e.g. low energy light bulbs. Effective Energy Conservation and Environmental Legislation may well see a rise in electricity consumption in the short term. promotion of heat pumps - require electricity industry switching to more efficient electrically driven processes. e.g. Case Hardening move towards electric cars.????? Hydrogen??????? 7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES. 37

38. Energy Conservation requires innovative “joined-up” thinking. Some of the best ideas come from individuals. What do you see as possibilities? Would a move to Hydrogen powered vehicles be viable in foreseeable future? What are the problems? 7. CONSERVATION POSSIBILITIES. 38

39. N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science DirectorCRedProject HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation NBS-M016 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy 2010 8. UK Energy Consumption Maxine Narburgh CSERGE 39

40. Kung Hei Fat Choi ! Gong Xi Fa Cai !

41. 8. UK Energy Consumption Per Capita Consumption in Watts ~ 5 kW The recent reductions are not as dramatic as appear above as total population has increased by 2.1 million since 2000 41

42. 8. UK Energy Consumption (Watts/capita) • Consumption is roughly 5 kW per capita • Industrial Consumption has declined • Transport Consumption has increased • Despite much improved insulation standards domestic energy use has remained almost static 42

43. 8. Comparative Energy Consumption (Watts/Capita) 43

44. N.K. Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A, PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Н.К.Тови М.А., д-р технических наук Energy Science DirectorCRedProject HSBC Director of Low Carbon Innovation NBS-M016 Contemporary Issues in Climate Change and Energy 2010 9. Generation of Electricity Maxine Narburgh CSERGE 44

45. Largest loss in Power Station 9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional Overall efficiency ~ 35% Diagram illustrates situation with coal, oil, or nuclear Gas Generation is more efficient - overall ~ 45% 45

46. Generator 9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional. Multi-stage Turbine Superheated Steam 563oC 160 bar Boiler Why do we condense the steam to water only to heat it up again?. Does this not waste energy? NO!! But we must wait until the Thermodynamics section to understand why? Pump Steam at ~ 0.03 bar Condenser Simplified Diagram of a “generating set” includes boiler, turbine, generator, and condenser 46

47. Power Station Chemical Energy Heat Energy Boiler Turbine Generator Mechanical Energy Electrical Energy 9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional Coal / Oil / Gas 100 units 90 units 90% 48% 41 units 95% Electricity used in Station 3 units 38 units 47

48. Why not use the heat from power station? - it is typically at 30oC? Too cold for space heating as radiators must be operated ~ 60+oC What about fish farming - tomato growing? - Yes, but this only represent about 0.005% of heat output. Problem is that if we increase the output temperature of the heat from the power station we get less electricity. Does this matter if overall energy supply is increased? 9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional. 48

49. 9. Generation of Electricity - CHP Overall Efficiency - 73% • Heat is rejected at ~ 90oC for supply to heat buildings. • City Wide schemes are common in Eastern Europe 49

50. 1947 Electricity Act blinked our approach for 35 years into attempting to get as much electricity from fuel rather than as much energy. Since Privatisation, opportunities for CHP have increased on an individual complex basis (e.g. UEA), unlike Russia A problem: need to always reject heat. What happens in summer when heating is not required? Need to understand basic thermodynamics 9. Generation of Electricity - Conventional. 50