Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) and its Future Directions

1. Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP)and its Future Directions A. Soares Scientific Officer WMO Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (DPFS) asoares@wmo.int WMO

2. Numerical simulations of the atmosphere “In general, the public is not aware that our daily weather forecasts start out as initial value problems on the major national weather services supercomputers. Numerical weather prediction provides the basic guidance for weather forecasting beyond the first few hours.” • Eugenia Kalnay (2003) • From: “Atmospheric Modeling, Data Assimilation and predictability” Cambridge University Press, 2003, 5th printing 2009

3. Why a project on severe weather forecasting? Mandate of NMHSs: To provide meteorological information for protection of life, livehoods and property, and conservation of the environment

4. Why a project on severe weather forecasting? Infrastructural Capacities of Countries as of Aug 2010 to provide Basic, Essential, Full and Advanced Meteorological Services Many NMHSs lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide provide high-quality meteorological services

5. Why a project on severe weather forecasting? ? 5 Dramatic developments in weather and climate prediction science Leading to improved alerting of hydro-meteorological hazards, at ever-increased precision, reliability, and lead-times of warnings Developing countries, including LDCs and SIDSs, saw little progress Increasing gap in application of advanced technology in early warnings WMO SWFDP attempts to close this gap, by applying the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ (regional frameworks)

6. Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries “NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011) Implemented through the Severe Weather Forecasting Demonstration Project (SWFDP) that applies the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’

7. Global Centres ECMWF Exeter, UK National Centres NOAA/NCEP, USA Regional Centre RSMC Pretoria Users (DMCPA, sectors) ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’

8. Main goals • Further implement the GDPFS through a three-level system – the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ • Improve collaborative work and international cooperation among operational centres at global, regional and national levels • Improve the skill of products from WMO operational centres through feedback • Continuous learning and modernization • Address the needs of groups of “like-countries” • Improve lead-time of Warnings • Improve interaction of NMHSs with users • Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems

9. Main goals / contributions to WMO high priorities Capacity development Disaster risk reduction Climate change adaptation (GFCS) Socio-econ. Sectors (AeM, AgM, etc) Basic systems (WIGOS, WIS) • Further implement the GDPFS through a three-level system – the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ • Improve collaborative work and international cooperation among operational centres at global, regional and national levels • Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational centres through feedback • Continuous learning and modernization • Address the needs of groups of “like-countries” • Improve lead-time of Warnings • Improve interaction of NMHSs with users • Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems

10. Regional project management and implementation • Planning, partnerships and accountability • Establishment of regional partnership (framework / team); • Focus on forecasting and warning services of 2 or 3 top hazards for the region • Preparation of regional project-specific IP • Development of specific Website by RSMC • Preparation of products by global and regional centres • Implementation and execution • typically 12-18 months • Tracking, continuously evaluation, feedback and verification, training and reporting • Evaluation and broaden the prototype (return to I. and II.) • More countries • More hazards • Synergies with other programmes • Long-term sustainability and future development • Responsibility for management lies with the region (e.g. MASA, EAC, PMC, etc.)

11. Regionalprojects

12. SWFDP – Southern Africa RSMC Pretoria Webportal Since 2006 • 16 countries • RSMC Pretoria • RSMC-TC La Réunion • ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO 12

13. SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC Pretoria RSMC analysis forecast information Guidance every day for the next 5 days Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, severe winter weather Guidance info made available through dedicated Webpage to NMCs Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting

14. SWFDP – Southwest Pacific RSMC Wellington Webportal Since 2009 • 9 SIDSs • RSMC Wellington • RSMC-TC Nadi • ABoM, ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO

15. SWFDP – Eastern Africa RSMC Nairobi Webportal Since 2011 • 6 countries • RSMC Nairobi • RFSC Dar (Lake Victoria) • DWD, ECMWF, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO

16. SWFDP – Southeast Asia RFSC Ha Noi Webportal Since 2011 • 5 countries • RFSC Na Hoi • RSMC-TC Tokyo • RSMC-TC New Delhi • HKO (training) • CMA, JMA, KMA 16

17. SWFDP – Bay of Bengal (South Asia) RSMC-TC New Delhi Webportal is being expanded • 6 countries • RSMC New Delhi • ECMWF, IMD/NCMRWF, JMA, NOAA/NCEP, UKMO 17

18. Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, WCP, etc. Flash Flood Guidance HWR Feedback and Verification General Public, media, disaster management authorities General Public, media, disaster management authorities PWS, HWR, WCP PWS Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products National Met Centres (Forecast/Warning Bulletins) Regional Centre (RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs) Global Centres LAM & Guidance Products (risk/probability) Specific User Sectors (Agriculture, Marine, Aviation, etc.) AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. RSMCs-TC TCP GDPFS WIGOS, WIS SP Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR) WWRP Satellite Imagery and Tools Observing and information systems Research Projects A cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards Regional Centre (RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs)

19. Cooperation with research … incorporating promising research outputs into real-time operations … • GIFS - TIGGE - Tropical Cyclone track; extreme events (wind, precip, temps; soon to be near-real-time) • Forecast Verification Research • Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting • Sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting • Societal and economic research applications (SERA)

20. GIFS products

21. Project framework and guidance REFERENCE DOCUMENTS: • SWFDP Overall Project Plan (rev. 2010) http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_OverallPP_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf • SWFDP Guidebook for Planning Regional Subprojects (rev. 2010) http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/DPFS/Meetings/RAII-SeA-SWFDP-RSMT_Hanoi2011/documents/SWFDP_Guidebook_Updated_22-04-2010.pdf

22. Resources for implementation and sustainability • Regular budget • In-kind contributions by WMO Members (especially global and regional centres) • Extra-budgetary funds from WMO Members, and donor agencies (e.g. AUSAid, World Bank, UNESCAP, Government of Norway, NZAid, etc.) • Staff: DPFS (responsible for the overall project), with the collaboration of PWS

23. Lessons learnt, so far • Successful recipe – effective framework, real benefits to developing and least developed countries • High impact, cost effective • Visible operational results – increased visibility, credibility and value of meteorological services • Regional frameworks: collective needs, motivation, buy-on, ownership, continuous learning environment for a group of like-countries

24. Lessons learnt, so far (cont.) • Accelerated technology transfer from advanced global centres to less capable national centres through the “Cascading Forecasting Process” • Model/framework can be applied to any time-scales and a range of applications/user sectors • Engagement with met-groups with regional economic bodies is critical for sustainability

25. Lessons learnt, so far (cont.) • Reliable and largely automated support by global centres, with infrequent problems that require technical repair and support • Critical role and functions of the regional centres in downscaling and tailoring products, and providing forecast guidance for practical use by NMHSs, and as a central hub for all data information exchange • Limited infrastructure requirements as products are provided in graphical form via Internet (or EumetCast/GeoMetCast)

26. Lessons learnt, so far (cont.) • Major challenge has been the need for VSRF tools, in absence of weather radar coverage – it has been addressed in collaboration with SAT (e.g. SAF-NWC package – MSG - being installed at RSMC) • Verification and feedback is crucial for fine-tune the products and improve the process • Training (face-to-face, hands-on, global guidance, e-learning, etc.) is a critical for mentoring and empower forecasters

27. Training activities • 2-week face-to-face training • NCEP African Desk (curriculum is now being revised to align with the SWFDP in Southern and Eastern Africa requirements, including WW3 and WRF) • ECMWF annual training for WMO Members • DWD annual training on COSMO (aligned with SWFDP) • Regional Training Centres (training programmes on forecasting aligned with the SWFDP) • TC trainings include SWFDP-related aspects

28. Webinars

29. Global guidancehuddle

30. Future directions • More countries, new regions (over 100 countries: developing and LDCs) ~ 12 RSMCs supported by ~6 RSMC-TC and ~13 global centres • Hydro-meteorological hazards • Sector-specific hazards (e.g. agriculture, marine, hydrology, aviation, etc.) • Beyond day-5

31. Ultimate goal…Effective and efficient global forecasting system Consolidate the SWFDP into sustainable operational services in all WMO Regions and transition the SWFDP to become a fully supported global programme

32. But a global system requires… • Sustaining and strengthening existing operational centres, especially RSMCs • Expanding the role of RSMCs with activity specialization in Tropical Cyclones • Establishing/creating new RSMCs In-kind contributions are expected to continue on the availability of products (mainly automated systems) However, with additional regions, more NMHSs, there will be a need for additional resources to support technical and “engineering” enhancements, and training

33. Each regional project requires… • An RSMC expert to act as a regional project manager • Regular meetings of the regional frameworks / boards • Development, upgrades and maintenance of the Web site and Portal • Training (face-to-face training events, global guidance service, RSMC training desks, on-job training, e-learning, etc.) • Implementation/installation of proven tools • Verification activities • Implementation/installation of a “meteoalarm”-type system

34. Sustaining and strengthening existing operational centres, especially RSMCs

35. Expanding the role of RSMCs with activity specialization in Tropical Cyclones

36. Establishing/creating new RSMCs/RFSCs

37. In addition… • Increased human resources required at the Secretariat to perform critical functions (coordinate, lead and help further develop, expand and mainstream the ‘Cascading Forecasting Process’ into all WMO Regions and other programmes of WMO), which also need to be funded (~300kUSD/year) • Regular meetings of the Steering Group (every other year) for overall guidance (~80kUSD/each)

38. Strengthening and sustaining the Cascading Forecasting Process… … paving the way for the future Tell us how to fish - Show us how to fish - Fish with us “ … next decade will continue to bring improvements, especially in … detailed short-range forecasts, using storm-scale models able to provide skillful predictions of severe weather; … “… improvement in the usefulness of medium-range forecasts, especially through use of ensemble forecasting;” - Eugenia Kalnay (2009)

39. Improving severe weather forecasting and warning services Thank you! DPFS: Peter Chen Alice Soares “Spending on improving weather forecasting and sharing data have high returns.” Natural Hazards UnNatural Disasters – The Economics of Effective Preveniton,WB, UN (2011)

40. Thank you for your attention • A. Soares • Scientific Officer • WMO Data-processing and Forecasting Systems (DPFS) • asoares@wmo.int