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A Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Ready-to-Eat and Partially Cooked Meat and Poultry Products

2. IntroductionContext Risk Management questionsRisk AssessmentFoods ModeledConceptual ModelDose-ResponseResultsAnswer to Risk Management QuestionsRisk FactorsWhat-if scenario (example)Peer Review CommentsSummary. Overview. 3. Context. During processing of Ready-to-Eat (RTE) and partiall

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A Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Ready-to-Eat and Partially Cooked Meat and Poultry Products

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    1. 1 A Risk Assessment for Clostridium perfringens in Ready-to-Eat and Partially Cooked Meat and Poultry Products Dr. Edmund Crouch Cambridge Environmental, Inc. March 24, 2005

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    5. 5 Risk Management (RM) Questions What is the impact on the probability of human illness if the allowable growth of CP is raised from 1-log10 during stabilization to 2-log10 or 3-log10?. What would the relative growth of C. botulinum (relative to the growth of CP) be for each of these stabilization standards? 

    6. 6 The Risk Assessment Foods modeled Exposure Assessment Dose-Response

    7. 7 RTE and PCF Modeled

    8. 8 Conceptual Layout of Risk Assessment Plant-to-fork risk assessment that models the growth, survival and death of CP vegetative cells and spores from post-lethality at the processing plant to consumption by the consumer in a serving of RTE or PC meat and poultry. Read text above Read text above

    9. 9 C. perfringens Risk Assessment Model

    10. 10 Dose-Response Human clinical trial data used: Requirements: CP type A, enterotoxin positive DR-curves: Exponential within-strain Lognormal random between-strain effect Example: Consumption of 4.8 ? 107 CP vegetative cells results in a 1% attack rate, on average.

    11. 11 Results Answer to Risk Management (RM) Questions Risk Factors What-if scenario (example)

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    13. 13 Results 1st RM Question (continued) A change in growth during stabilization from 1 log10 to 2 log10 and 3 log10 results in a median 1.21 and 1.57 fold increase in annual diarrheal illness, respectively.

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    18. 18 Role of stabilization Stabilization of RTE and PCF at food processing plants contributes minimally (0.07%) to the risk of CP illnesses at 1 log10 growth during stabilization. Read text Read text

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    20. 20 Role of improper hot-holding Epidemiology finds that hot-holding contributes to more than 90% of reported CP outbreaks (typically cooked from raw products). However, these data are biased toward institutional hot-holding as this will produce large detectable outbreaks. There is no independent estimate of the role of hot-holding among RTE and PCF (these foods are not likely to be hot-held.)

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    23. 23 Results of 2nd RM Question Growth of CP is not predictive of growth of C. botulinum.

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    27. 27 Peer Review Comments Five External Reviewers were chosen CP microbiology (1) Food Safety (1) Food processing (1) Modeling (2) The overall review of the Risk Assessment report and model was positive.

    28. 28 Peer Review Results Primary Reviewers criticism: Limited data available Greater clarification needed in the text No changes suggested in methodology No additional relevant data located Report updated Incorporates clarifications No change to calculations or results

    29. 29 Summary A model was developed to determine the impact to public health of altering the current CP growth critical control limit. Approximately 113,000 illness/year are predicted to be caused by CP from consumption of RTE and PCF for growth at the current 1 log10 limit. There are no data to validate this estimate.

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