LISA Prior to the Decadal Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics (and following the BEPAC report)

1. LISA Prior to the Decadal Review of Astronomy and Astrophysics(and following the BEPAC report) Tom Prince Caltech/JPL 12th GWDAW 13 December 2007

2. The Importance of Gravitational Wave Astronomy from Space Recent NRC Review of the NASA Beyond Einstein Program (BEPAC Report Released in September) The Committee ranked LISA highest scientifically: “On purely scientific grounds LISA is the mission that is the most promising and least scientifically risky … Thus, the committee gave LISA its highest scientific ranking” This Talk: Why (and how) LISA won and lost the BEPAC review What did BEPAC say? A “good news” + “bad news” story The current situation: a pivotal time for LISA LISA advocacy: a key to the upcoming Decadal Review

3. What is “BEPAC” • Beyond Einstein Program Assessment Committee, convened by the National Research Council • “Prompted by Congressional language inserted in the formulation of the FY2007 budget” • Congress (Energy appropriations) inserted language critical of the progress towards a joint dark energy mission • John Marburger (Director of OSTP) convened a meeting with Michael Griffin of NASA and Ray Orbach of DOE and three advisory committee chairs resulting in a decision to ask for an NRC study • “NASA and DOE asked the NRC to prepare a report reviewing NASA’s Beyond Einstein missions and recommend one mission for first development and launch utilizing a Beyond Einstein funding wedge that will start in 2009.” • Five missions (LISA, Con-X, JDEM, Inflation Probe, Black Hole Finder Probe) • Eleven mission candidates • One mission candidate (SNAP/JDEM) has had significant DOE involvement

4. Some Observations & Comments • The committee report is a very impressive achievement • The committee did a tremendous amount of work and it shows in the quality of the report • The combined scientific, technical, cost, and management assessment was very unusual for an NRC committee and together with the diversity of mission types presented a considerable challenge to carrying out the charge of the committee • Charlie Kennel in his open briefing on the report mentioned “tension” and “consensus” very early in his remarks • My understanding: Consensus was achieved through the endorsement of two missions rather than a single mission. The report represents a true consensus of the committee. • Wording is often used carefully and purposefully • Words such as “first priority”, “highest ranking”, “flagship” have special importance

5. Important Statements on LISA “On purely scientific grounds LISA is the (Beyond Einstein) mission that is most promising and least scientifically risky. Even with pessimistic assumptions about event rates, it should provide unambiguous and clean tests of the theory of general relativity in the strong field dynamical regime and be able to make detailed maps of space time near black holes. Thus, the committee gave LISA its highest scientific ranking.” “If the committee’s charge had been to design a complete multi-year multi-mission program addressing comprehensive Beyond Einstein goals, LISA would have been its flagship mission.” “LISA is an extraordinarily original and technically bold mission concept. The first direct detection of low-frequency gravitational waves will be a momentous discovery, of the kind that wins Nobel Prizes.” (Many other quotable statements about LISA)

6. LISA Science and the BEPAC Review • A tremendous effort was put forth by the LISA science community in articulating the science rationale for LISA • Excellent presentations and contributions by many individuals • Simple but effective approach: • Don’t sell gravitational waves as such, • Rather, show how important gravitational waves are for addressing some of the key questions of astronomy and physics • Result: peoples’ conception of gravitational wave astronomy is being changed

7. Absolute Distances from Black Hole Binaries • amplitude • orbital frequency • chirp time Waveforms of black hole binaries give precise, gravitationally calibrated distances to high redshift Absolute luminosity distances can be derived directly from Distances accurate to 0.1% to ~10% per event Absolute, physical calibration using only gravitational physics

8. Absolute Distances: Hubble Constant and Dark Energy H0 and Dark Energy parameters potentially measured to <1% • ~10’s of events expected to z~3; 100’s to z~20 • Cosmological distance requires redshift (either host identification or statistical) • Noise from weak lensing • Comparable precision to weak lensing, baryon acoustic oscillations, clusters, and supernovae techniques • Absolute & Independent measurement

9. Absolute Distances: Hubble Constant and Dark Energy H0 and Dark Energy parameters potentially measured to <1% “LISA also has the potential to measure the dark energy equation of state, along with the Hubble constant and other cosmological parameters. Through gravitational wave form measurements LISA can determine the luminosity distance of sources directly. If any of these sources can be detected and identified as infrared, optical or x-ray transients and if their redshift can be measured, this would revolutionize cosmography by determining the distance scale of the universe in a precise, calibration-free measurement.” (NRC BEPAC)

10. Will We See Electromagnetic Signals from BH mergers? • Not guaranteed, but if detected yields exciting scientific return • Host galaxy identification provides unique information on galaxy-BH co-evolution • Host galaxy identification allows precision determination of distance-redshift relation • LISA will provide few-degree error boxes and time of merger months before launch • Error boxes shrink to degree or sub-degree size as signal-to-noise increases and merger approaches The first LISA detections of massive Black Hole mergers will mobilize global astronomical resources and be an astronomical event of enormous excitement. These are the most energetic events in the universe since the Big Bang.

11. LISA’s Science Success • The committee found that LISA was the only mission that addressed all three of the committee’s major science questions: • What powered the Big Bang? • Only two missions mentioned, Inflation Probe and LISA • How do Black Holes Manipulate Space, Time, and Matter? • LISA appeared to receive the highest ranking on this question • What is the Mysterious Dark Energy Pulling the Universe Apart? • LISA was one of three missions mentioned • Statement: If any sources are detected electromagnetically, LISA could “revolutionize cosmography by determining the distance scale of the universe in a precise, calibration-free measurement” • In addition: Very strong statements on LISA’s potential for unexpected discoveries

12. LISA Mock LISA Data Challenge & BEPAC Challenge 2: “the whole Enchilada”

13. The Bad News Executive Summary: Finding 5. The ESA-NASA LISA Pathfinder mission that is scheduled for launch in late 2009 will assess the operation of several critical LISA technologies in space. The committee believes it is more responsible technically and financially to propose a LISA new start after the Pathfinder results are taken into account. In addition, Pathfinder will not test all technologies critical to LISA. Thus, it would be prudent for NASA to invest further in LISA technology development and risk reduction,to help ensure that NASA is in a position to proceed with ESA to a formal new start as soon as possible after the LISA Pathfinder results are understood. “The next highest priority (after JDEM) for funding from the current 2009 Beyond Einstein NASA budget wedge is to accelerate the maturation of those mission critical LISA technologies that are currently at low technology readiness levels. This funding will be needed until and if NASA initiates a post-Pathfinder mission start for LISA.”

14. A note on the BEPAC $$ estimates • Is LISA really a $3.2B mission? • Some important points • BEPAC estimates were in “Real Year” dollars and go out to FY25 • The BEPAC estimated $641M for mission operations and data analysis! • But, LISA data will fit on an iPOD in 2020 and LISA does not point (i.e. operations are VERY simple and data pipeline is low volume) • LISA project estimate was about $200M (RY) • Once differences in mission operations and data analysis and launch vehicle costs are taken into account, BEPAC and project numbers agree to within about 20% • In FY06$$, LISA is a $1.6-2.0B mission

15. (DDT&E: Design, Development, Test, and Evaluation)

16. Follow-on to BEPAC Report • We have a window of opportunity to advocate for Beyond Einstein and LISA given the strong endorsement of the program and the mission by the NRC committee • Advocacy should be a major focus for the gravitational wave community in the coming months • Important in both Europe (Cosmic Vision selection) and US (Decadal Review prioritization) • Decadal Review will start in (early?) 2008 • Important actions: • Get out and give colloquia and seminar talks at your own institution and other universities • Talk to your physics and astronomy colleagues about the importance of LISA • Get your university magazine to do an article on LISA • Write, or better yet, visit your congressional representatives or their staff - let them know how important funding of space science is and how exciting the Beyond Einstein program is • Talk to NASA Headquarters - tell them how important LISA is to astronomy and astrophysics

17. Some Talking Points • LISA was the highest ranked mission scientifically in the recent BEPAC review, conducted by the National Academy of Science/National Research Council. Two missions were singled out for strong recommendations: JDEM to start first, LISA starting a few years later as the recommended flagship of the Beyond Einstein program. • LISA is guaranteed to see many thousands of gravitational wave sources, some with signal-to-noise of a thousand or more. These will provide us with many exciting new ways of doing astronomy and physics • LISA is a well-developed concept. The basic mission architecture has been stable for almost a decade. Formulation studies are ongoing in Europe and the United States. • Many of LISA's flight systems already exist as engineering prototypes or flight articles for the LISA Pathfinder mission scheduled for launch in 2010

18. LISA: Strongly Endorsed in all Recent Reviews Astronomy & Astrophysics in the New Millennium (NRC - 2001) “LISA is unique among the recommended new initiatives in that it is designed to detect the gravitational radiation predicted by Einstein’s theory of general relativity. The direct measurement of gravitational radiation from astrophysical sources will open a new window onto the universe and enable investigations of the physics of strong gravitational fields.” Quarks to Cosmos (NRC - 2003) LISA and Con-X have “great potential to address questions that lie at the boundary between physics and astronomy”. Beyond Einstein (BE) Roadmap (NASA - 2003) “The cornerstones of the program are two Einstein Great Observatories, Con-X and LISA.” Physics of the Universe (NSTC/OSTP - 2004) The execution of the LISA mission is “necessary to open up this powerful new window on the universe and create the new field of gravitational wave astronomy.” “Mid-course” Review of Decadal Study (NRC - 2005) LISA and Con-X “will provide a broad and flexible science return across all of astrophysics as have HST, CGRO, Chandra and Spitzer”. Beyond Einstein Program Assessment Committee (NRC - 2007) “On purely scientific grounds LISA is the (Beyond Einstein) mission that is most promisingand least scientifically risky ... Thus, the committee gave LISA its highest scientific ranking.” “If the committee’s charge had been to design a complete multi-year multi-mission program addressing comprehensive Beyond Einstein goals, LISA would have been its flagship mission.” “LISA is an extraordinarily original and technically bold mission concept. The first direct detection of low-frequency gravitational waves will be a momentous discovery, of the kind that wins Nobel Prizes.”

19. Backup

20. Charge to the Committee • Assess the five proposed Beyond Einstein missions and recommend which of these five should be developed and launched first, using a funding wedge that is expected to begin in FY2009. The criteria for these assessments include: • Potential scientific impact within the context of other existing and planned space-based and ground-based missions; and • Realism of preliminary technology and management plans, and cost estimates • Assess the Beyond Einstein missions sufficiently so that they can act as input for any future decisions or the next Astronomy and Astrophysics Decadal Survey on the ordering of the remaining missions. This second task element will assist NASA in its investment strategy for future technology development within the Beyond Einstein Program prior to the results of the Decadal Survey. (Note: 2nd criteria (sub-bullet) very unusual for an NRC committee. Usually this is NASA’s domain)

21. LISA-Related Findings and Recommendations Executive Summary: Finding 3. Two mission areas stand out for the directness with which they address Beyond Einstein goals and their potential for broader scientific impact: LISA and JDEM. Finding 4. LISA is an extraordinarily original and technically bold mission concept. LISA will open up an entirely new way of observing the universe, with immense potential to enlarge our understanding of physics and astronomy in unforeseen ways. LISA, in the committee’s view, should be the flagship mission of a long-term program addressing Beyond Einstein goals. Finding 5. The ESA-NASA LISA Pathfinder mission that is scheduled for launch in late 2009 will assess the operation of several critical LISA technologies in space. The committee believes it is more responsible technically and financially to propose a LISA new start after the Pathfinder results are taken into account. In addition, Pathfinder will not test all technologies critical to LISA. Thus, it would be prudent for NASA to invest further in LISA technology development and risk reduction,to help ensure that NASA is in a position to proceed with ESA to a formal new start as soon as possible after the LISA Pathfinder results are understood.

22. LISA-Related Findings and Recommendations Executive Summary: Finding 8. The present NASA Beyond Einstein funding wedge alone is inadequate to develop any candidate Beyond Einstein mission on its nominal schedule. However, both JDEM and LISA could be carried out with the currently forecasted NASA contribution if DOE's contribution that benefits JDEM is taken into account and if LISA's development schedule is extended and funding from ESA is assumed. Recommendation 2. NASA should invest additional Beyond Einstein funds in LISA technology development and risk reduction, to help ensure that the Agency is in a position to proceed in partnership with ESA to a new start after the LISA Pathfinder results are understood. “The next highest priority (after JDEM) for funding from the current 2009 Beyond Einstein NASA budget wedge is to accelerate the maturation of those mission critical LISA technologies that are currently at low technology readiness levels. This funding will be needed until and if NASA initiates a post-Pathfinder mission start for LISA.”

23. Criteria for mission assessment • Provided at webcast briefing by Charlie Kennel • How do they advance goals of Beyond Einstein? • How do they provide contributions to a broader range of scientific questions? • What is their potential for revolutionary discovery? • What is their scientific risk? • What is their readiness? • Will there be another space mission that can compete or ground-based instrumentation that can compete? “Technical readiness was a particular concern for a 2009 start.”

25. [New start = Start of Implementation]

26. Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics Co-Chairs: Meg Urry Chuck Bennett

27. Astro 2010The Next Decadal Survey in Astronomy & Astrophysics Board on Physics and Astronomy (lead) Anneila Sargent, Chair Jon Bagger, Executive Committee Don Shapero, Executive Officer Space Studies Board Len Fisk, Chair Marcia Smith, Executive Officer Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics Meg Urry (BPA) & Chuck Bennett (SSB), co-chairs 2-year planning process for Astro 2010 CAA going into hibernation (during survey)

28. Astro 2010 Current Status Internal proposal at NRC is approved; planning can proceed April 28, 2007 meeting under auspices of BPA and SSB BPA, SSB astronomers plus several others How to adjust survey model to changed circumstances? Developed guiding principles for survey Proposal submitted to NASA, NSF, DOE Survey will not start (and committee will not be selected) until it is funded by agencies Hope to start in early 2008

29. Astro 2010 Guiding Principles (1) Community involvement Already town meetings at AAS, APS Will be extensive, on the Bahcall model Organization of panels Re science v. , open issue Evaluating cost and technical readiness BEPAC model? Independent assessment Unrealized projects - include in prioritization

30. Astro 2010 Guiding Principles (2) International community Cooperation on big projects? Scientific scope E.g., include Beyond Einstein science Other boundaries? Robustness to changing circumstances (e.g., cost growth, technical issues, changing science) “Decision rules” Mid-term assessments?

31. Astro 2010 Guiding Principles (3) Makeup of committee Addition of other experts in science, policy, etc. Could help with friendly critique and credibility Send nominations, comments, suggestions to astro2010@nas.edu