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BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO Stockholm 5-6 October 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses

BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO Stockholm 5-6 October 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses. Objectives. To promote a common energy agenda for the Baltic Sea Region through the involvement of key stakeholders

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BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO Stockholm 5-6 October 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses

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  1. BDF Summit /BASREC GSEO Stockholm 5-6 October 2009 Anders Kofoed-Wiuff, Ea Energy Analyses

  2. Objectives • To promote a common energy agenda for the Baltic Sea Region through the involvement of key stakeholders • To provide a substantial basis for discussion of different energy scenarios for the region based on an analysis of energy data Process Feb 2009 Oct2009 May 2008

  3. Developing scenarios Storage CO2 CO2-emissions Other energy 250 Electricity and district heat Tranport 200 150 100 50 0 DG TREN DG TREN Ref_North North DG TREN 1990 2005 Scenario 2030 Fuel prices Stakeholderdialogue Energy demand Efficiency measures ScenarioAnalyses Infrastructure Results Technology data Renewable resources

  4. Targets for 2030 CO2: -50 % (1990) Oil: -50 % (2005) Phase I

  5. Phase II Detailed analyses of the electricity markets 2010-2030 • Targets • 2020: EU targets for CO2 and RE • 2030: 50 % CO2 reduction compared to 1990 • Model decides new investments in generation capacity except nuclear and hydro power • Fuel prices according to International Energy Agency - 120 $/bbl in 2030 • Baseline scenario and three variations • Regional targets for renewable energy • Lower electricity demand • More CO2 reduction in 2020

  6. A balanced view on nuclear power

  7. Future generation capacity

  8. Generation outlook

  9. Utilisation of biomass resources

  10. CO2emissions • Marginal CO2 price - 7 €/ton in 2020 - 60 €/ton in 2030 • Marginal cost of increasing RE generation • 0 – 30 €/MWh in 2020 • 0 - 11 €/MWh in 2030

  11. Scenario variations • Regional target for increasing the share of renewable energy • Benefit: 5 billion Euro NPV , One RE price: 19 €/MWh • 10 percentage points additional CO2 reduction in 2020 • Cost: 16 billion Euro NPV, CO2-price in 2020: 7 => 30 €/ton • Lower electricity demand (approx. -22 %) • Benefit: > 100 billion Euro NPV (excl. cost of saving measures) • Electricity price: 40-50 €/MWh in 2020

  12. Key findings • The targetscanbemet at reasonablecosts • Potential for more efficient generation and consumption • Benefits of regional cooperation • Interconnectors • Electricitymarkets • RE policies and projects • Strongertargetsarepossible

  13. Recommendations from the stakeholder dialogue • shared vision “A Green Valley of Europe” • energy stakeholder forum • regional projects • common interconnector strategy • action plan for efficient and sustainable heating • common regional training programme

  14. Phase III • Modelllingtool and data for the whole region is nowavailable • How to utilisethis potential in the thirdprojectphase? • Suggestions for further analyses • Develop a ”strategy scenario” with input from each country in the region • Identify and evaluateconcreteprojects in cooperationwithstakeholders • Expand the scope to 2050

  15. Phase III • Input for • EU Baltic Sea Region strategy in parallel with Baltic Energy Market and Interconnector Plan (BEMIP) • Regional perspective on the National renewable energy Action Plans and national energy efficiency efforts

  16. Input from BDF Summit • The study could provide useful input for concretisation of EU Baltic Sea Strategy – climate, economy and security of supply • We need concrete plans and actions – ”lighthouse projects” • Grids and wind power • Combined heat and power and energy efficiency • Training and education • Incorporate national policies in the study (including nuclear) – develop a road map for the region • Look at a portfolio of technology options, include a technological development, e.g. solar and wave • Expand the scope to 2050 – explore ”truly” sustainable scenarios (no fossil fuels)

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