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Estimating Activity Durations

Estimating Activity Durations. Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D. Purpose. Accuracy matters. Implicit Assumptions Revealed. More people, less time. Source of Data. Expert opinions Time studies Statistical analysis. Source of Data. Expert opinions Time studies Statistical analysis. Source of Data.

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Estimating Activity Durations

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  1. Estimating Activity Durations Farrokh Alemi, Ph.D.

  2. Purpose • Accuracy matters

  3. Implicit Assumptions Revealed • More people, less time

  4. Source of Data • Expert opinions • Time studies • Statistical analysis

  5. Source of Data • Expert opinions • Time studies • Statistical analysis

  6. Source of Data • Expert opinions • Time studies • Stop motion studies • Diary • Statistical analysis

  7. Source of Data • Expert opinions • Time studies • Statistical analysis

  8. Assessing Experts Opinions • Assumptions • Estimate, talk and estimate • Delphi

  9. Assessing Experts Opinions • Assumptions • Estimate, talk and estimate • Delphi

  10. Assessing Experts Opinions • Assumptions • Estimate, talk and estimate • Delphi

  11. Example of Estimate Talk Estimate

  12. Example of Estimate Talk Estimate Thanks for agreeing to help us…please write down …

  13. Example of Estimate Talk Estimate Responses from different expert are collected and displayed on the flip chart without attribution

  14. Example of Estimate Talk Estimate This is great. Lets discuss why it could take a long time…

  15. Example of Estimate Talk Estimate Well it depends on the experience of the person configuring the system

  16. Example of Estimate Talk Estimate And it also depends on how cooperative the clinicians are.

  17. Example of Estimate Talk Estimate Discussion of Assumptions

  18. Example of Estimate Talk Estimate You have said … please re-estimate…

  19. PERT • Optimistic • Realistic • Pessimistic

  20. PERT • Optimistic • Realistic • Pessimistic

  21. PERT Dialogue How long do you think it would take to send 100 surveys out?

  22. PERT Dialogue It all depends. I have seen people do it in 6 hours and I have seen others do it in 1 hour.

  23. PERT Dialogue But given what I know about your operations I think it will take 2 hours.

  24. PERT Dialogue

  25. Take Home Lesson Estimate-Talk-Estimate and PERT method can increase accuracy of estimate of duration of activities

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