Creating an Interface Between LEAP & the LIASs

1. Creating an Interface Between LEAP & the LIASs Presentation to the Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector (DRMFSS) April, 2010 DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

2. Why is integration important? The LEAP-LIAS interface will enable: • Earlier projection of needs • Objective, science-based data and outcomes • Cutting-edge advancements in understanding and responding to risk, mitigation, and response DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

3. Why is integration important? Risk = f (H,V/C) Livelihoods Databases (HEA) LEAP DRR Formulation Risk = f (Hazard ,Vulnerability /Capabilities) Extreme Food or Livelihood Insecurity Nature, Location and Magnitude of shock or shocks Household and regional economic systems in relation to shock(s) People’s capacity to cope on their own

4. Seasonal Mapping & Review Tool (SMaRT) How will it work? …is automatically input into the HEA LIAS & SMaRT sheets and the scenario is run, generating beneficiary numbers by woreda Beneficiary numbers are then exported back to LEAP and mapped LEAP Yield Reduction in % (2002 Maize_Meher) LEAP crop yield reduction data by woreda No. beneficiaries

5. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP How will it work? • LEAP yield reduction figures are adjusted to be comparable to the reference year used in the LIASs • LEAP yield reduction specifications are applied to crop groups with similar LEAP crop coefficients, start of plant date, and length of growing period • Specifications are adjusted for livelihood zone differences in crops & crop proportions using a crop index for each season an interface sheet • The new ‘scenario’ – informed by LEAP inputs – are run in the SMaRT tool to produce beneficiary numbers by woreda • Data on beneficiary numbers are exported back to LEAP through an interface sheet

6. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Adjust LEAP Yield Reduction Data to HEA Reference Year LEAP yield reduction data is the percentage reduction in yield of a give crop compared to the yield obtained without water stress HEA data is based on a specific reference year that, while considered ‘normal’, is not equivalent to a year without water stress In order to be able to apply LEAP data to HEA scenarios, we must project LEAP yield reduction data to the HEA reference year DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

7. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Apply to groups of similar crops Crop coefficient data from LEAP is used to help group similar crops together DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

8. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Crop coefficient data from LEAP is used to help group similar crops together DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

9. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Cropping patterns for main cereals grown The livelihoods databases already have specific information on where certain crops are grown – and when – for the entire country

10. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Cropping patterns for other crops Most important crop sold including staples Most important crop sold excluding staples

11. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Not all rainfall failures will affect the same people… Seasonality and Livelihoods: Production Patterns Unimodal Kremt dominant – two seasons Kremt dominant – bimodal Belg dominant – two seasons Belg dominant, bimodal

12. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Not all rainfall failures will affect the same people… Seasonality and Livelihoods: Production Patterns Percent of grain production harvested in belg Percent of grain production planted in belg

13. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Not all rainfall failures will affect the same people… Seasonality and Livelihoods: Production Patterns DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

14. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Apply to groups of similar crops Crop plant start dates and length of season (normal year) are classified into 6 different categories for all LZs in the country DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

15. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP v Crop plant start dates and length of season (normal year) are classified into 6 different categories for all LZs in the country DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

16. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Adjust for LZ differences Adjust for LZ differences Within one woreda, there are often areas of different agro-ecology and/or livelihoods. We account for these differences by applying the LEAP yield reduction figures to relevant crops in each livelihood zone, and then aggregate back to woreda level. No. beneficiaries DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

17. S M a R T T O O L : A m h a r a R e g i o n Adjust for LZ differences Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP LIASs: Amhara Region Scenarios can be run automatically from a centralized interface for each region. Data on market prices, demand for labour, livestock production, and coping strategies uptake can be included in the hazard data input into the tools. Beneficiary numbers are then generated by woreda, and can be mapped.

18. Adjust LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Adjust for LZ differences Export to LEAP Beneficiary numbers by woreda can then be exported to LEAP and mapped, along with any other relevant parameters No. beneficiaries DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

19. Next Steps Collaboration and development of the initial interface between LEAP and the Livelihoods Databases is ongoing. Demonstration of the interface will take place in early June, when stakeholders will convene to determine how to move forward with continued development of the pairing of these tools and their integration into the early warning system. DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT & DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

20. Extra Slides DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

21. Calibrate LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP Adjust LEAP Yield Reduction Data to HEA Reference Year Define YR (Yield Reduction) = Y/Y(ref), where Y is yield and ref is HEA reference year YRLEAP = 1-Y/YLEAP YRHEA = 1-Y/YHEA Rearrange the first equation: Y = (1-YRLEAP)*YLEAP The second equation becomes: YRHEA = 1-((1-YRLEAP)*YLEAP)/YHEA = 1-(YLEAP/YHEA)*(1-YRLEAP DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &

22. Calibrate LEAP data to HEA reference year Apply to groups of similar crops Adjust for LZ differences Run the scenario in the SMaRT Export to LEAP For example… If YRLEAP for meher maize in the HEA reference year is 10% (0.1), and YR for the current year is 40% (0.4), YR adjusted for HEA (YRHEA) = YLEAP = 0.4, and YLEAP / YHEA = 1/(1-0.1) YHEA = 1 – (1/0.9)*(1-0.4) = 0.34 The adjusted YRHEA = 34% of the HEA reference year. This is the figure that will be input into the SMaRT. DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT &