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North America 5G Outlook ITS Workshop, Ottawa March 28, 2019 Mike Murphy

Explore the latest in North America 5G trends and strategies from the ITS Workshop in Ottawa. Discover launch plans, spectrum auctions, deployment insights, and regulatory support critical for 5G enablement in the US and Canada. Gain valuable information on capacity forecasts, architecture innovations, and challenges in deploying mmWave technology. Stay informed on the evolution of network infrastructure, edge architecture, and vendor strategies. Get up-to-date on 5G deployment milestones, user demand projections, and the need for mid-band capacity to meet growing requirements.

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North America 5G Outlook ITS Workshop, Ottawa March 28, 2019 Mike Murphy

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  1. North America 5G Outlook ITS Workshop, Ottawa March 28, 2019 Mike Murphy CTO, North & South America

  2. Launch Plans 1 2 3 4 5 Soft Launch 5G IoT & LTE Decline iPhone FDD/SA R15 March TDD/NSA R15 Dec Verizon Oct, 2018 FWA AT&T Dec, 2018 HotSpot All 2Q19 Mobility The Race!

  3. Spectrum Plans Auctions 28GHz Jan’18 24GHz Mar’19 Auctions 2018-2022 Pre-Auction Holdings √ CBRS NR work started (~1y to finish) <6GHz 600 2.5 B5/66 mmWave 28+39 39 28 T-Mobile Sprint VZ, AT&T Verizon AT&T T-Mobile 2019 GAA 28, 24, 37, 39, 47 2020+ PAL, 3.1, 3.55, 3.7 5.1 GHz C-Band Alliance 180MHz 18-36m Canada 2019 600MHz 2020 3.5GHz 2021 28/39GHz *Re-Farming 650 MHz Use existing assets Differentiate with spectrum Acquire new assets Level playing field

  4. Accenture: Jan23, ‘19 USA : 800K Sites 5G Deployment Expected Coverage Focus USA Forecast Traditional Site +36K Sites 100 75 50 25 Mid-band mmWave +227K Sites mmWave % Sites Low Mid 25 50 80 100 % Traffic e.g., mmW focus = top 20% of sites [ Typical city : 3K sites @80% coverage, 50Mbps ] mmW ~2-4x today’s sites, mid-band may re-use LTE grid

  5. US Regulatory Support • √ Siting Reform • September 27, 2018 • √ Accelerated mmWave Auctions • 2018-2020 • √ Spectrum Strategy Memorandum • October 5, 2018 Regulatory support critical for 5G enablement

  6. Capacity Forecast (US Customer) McKinsey shows 2020 Highlights • LTE exhaust 2022 • 5G devices dominate 2023 • LTE+5G capacity plan needed 5G Critical PB User Demand 8X LTE Capacity 1X LTE capacity growth, with 5G acceleration. No other options! 5G>4G 5G Start *mMIMO applied on >1GHz, LTE @5% densification/yr. *Mobile churn rate @21%

  7. LTE Simulation – LAA, CBRS LTE Capacity vs User Demand Highlights • <6GHz insufficient 2021+ • mmW mandatory • Indoor a major challenge • need mid-band Capacity Needed (5G new bands) Challenges with mmW density & indoor coming quickly

  8. Architecture New : Edge Architecture & Suppliers Far Edge New : Interfaces Metro Edge Core CRAN vRAN Open eCPRI / F1 LTE, 5G, FWA UDM W5 GAN AMF UPF Automation/Security IMS MEC Flexible placement Open Distributed, virtualized, low latency network

  9. MSO, MNO Assets Converged Architecture COs, Cable Hubs Overlap Shared Common CRAN vRAN UDM AMF UPF LTE, 5G, FWA DOCSIS, PON W5 GAN Automation/Security IMS DOCSIS N2/N3 XPON vCMTS vOLT MEC Convergence Technically Viable Active customer proposals in progress

  10. Core View 3GPP Options Inter-System Handoff √ Launch: 3x 4G Services EPC EPC 5GC Alternate 3x+2 (no eLTE) X Transition: 7x, 4 4G & 5G Services *R15 ASN.1 June ‘19 EPC 5GC 4G UE 3X UE 2 UE √ Target: 2 5G Services 5GC Decision on options ~1Q19

  11. RAN Evolution Field Trial 2020 Hubs USA ~2300 YE19 Commercial 2019 / 5G vRAN Phase 1 Linear Capacity Centralization vRAN Phase 2 PDCP RLC PDCP RLC AirScale 4G & 5G RLC MAC RLC MAC Costs well known CPRI eCPRI / F1

  12. Open Systems AI Fundamental change to industry MANO • Target innovation, cost • Approach is disaggregation • Disrupting status quo …aligns with Nokia vision Edge RIC Trials 2019 RAN O-RAN Total ~20 Forums Many new - 2018 EDGE STACK

  13. Use Cases 2019 5G Fixed Wireless Access Mobility Nokia 5G CPE 3.5 2019 mmW 2020 Fixed 2020+ 28GHz – 300Mbps (e.g., Verizon) 3.5GHz – 100 Mbps (e.g., Optus) Verticals (IoT) VZ 800MHz Optus 60MHz

  14. New Market Players 144 Members • Triggers • CBRS • Edge Clouds • Openness Salt & Pepper Mix & Match

  15. Tick-Tock, or Why 5G Must Happen Soon in the US August 21, 2018 TR Daily April 20, 2018 Mike Murphy, chief technology officer in North America for Nokia, said U.S. wireless carriers need a minimum of 100 MHz each in 3.7-4.2 GHz C-band to deploy 5G services. He also urged U.S. action on siting, saying infrastructure can be deployed more quickly in China and South Korea. There should be standardized processes and costs for deploying small cells, Mr. Murphy suggested.

  16. Nokia 5G

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