Elections in Multi-Ethnic Cities

1. Elections in Multi-Ethnic Cities Political Science 61 / Chicano/Latino Studies 64 November 13, 2007

2. Urban Politics Increasingly Multiethnic • Largest cities are multiethnic • Los Angeles (city) • 47% Latino; 30% Anglo; 11% Black; 10% Asian American • New York • 35% Anglo; 27% Latino; 25% Black; 10% Asian American • Chicago • 36% Black; 31% Anglo; 26% Latino; 4% Asian American • Houston • 37% Latino; 31% White; 25% Black; 5% Asian American

3. Multiethnic Cities: A Venue for Pluralist Competition • Pluralism • A condition in which ethnic, religious, or cultural groups compete within a society • Outcomes should reflect some optimal balance of interests • Why in cities more than nationally? • Fewer super-majoritarian institutional barriers at the urban level (courts prohibit) • Legacies of European ethnic identities • Cities more explicitly distribute resources • More likely to be minority officeholders as well as cohesive minority electorates • Race/ethnic minorities not the only cohesive interests (groups the compete in a pluralist universe)

4. Multiethnic Cities, but Racially Homogeneous Neighborhoods • Most multiethnic cities continue to have high racial/ethnic segregation at the neighborhood level • Legacy of discrimination • Reinforced by • Economic segregation of housing • Intra-urban migration patterns • Consequence • Local politics continues to be more group-focused than state/national politics • Schools and school politics racially/ethnically homogeneous

5. Minorities More Likely to Live Around “Others” • “Ethnic succession” • Traditionally, immigrants move into older housing stock, near workplaces • More recently, also suburban immigrant destinations • Political consequences • Competition between immigrant populations and African Americans • Districting strategies can often be used to undermine race/ethnic politics • Limited number of offices promote competition for representation

6. Perceptions of Neighborhood Racial Integration

7. Other Opportunities for Contact in Urban Areas • Workplaces • Integration varies dramatically by profession • Houses of worship • Emergence of the megachurch • Recreational activities • Contact with other groups varies by age • Civic activities • Schools • Review – “Bowling Alone” irregular contact among people in social/recreational settings

8. Urban Politics: Los Angeles Case Study Raphael Sonenshein’s study of Los Angeles • Minority exclusion (1961-1973) • White-led coalition denied political opportunities to Blacks and other minorities • The Bradley Coalition (1973-1993) • Blacks, Latinos, liberal whites (particularly Jews) • Coalition declined as each group sought leadership • Riordan and beyond (1993-) • Business-led coalitions • Minority communities divided, internally and from each other

9. The 2005 Mayoral Race(s): A New Model? • Two stage election (unless one candidate received 50 percent of the vote in the first election) • Primary – Group/region/ideology all represented to varying degrees • Race/Ethnicity • Valley vs. Non-Valley • Moderate vs. Liberal Democrats • With so many candidates (5), little incentive to build coalitions at first • In runoff, winner had to reach beyond his own race/ethnic group

10. Race/Ethnic Voting Los Angeles Mayoral Primary Source: Los Angeles Times, Exit Poll

11. Race/Ethnic Voting Los Angeles Mayoral Runoff Source: Los Angeles Times, exit poll

12. Was This an Example of Raw Latino Power? • Not really – Latinos had supported Villaraigosa strongly in 2001 • What changed was division in non-Latino electorates • Whites split their votes evenly • Valley versus Westside • Young Blacks and Black leaders supported Villaraigosa (and, so, the Black vote split) • Asian American electorate is the outlier • Hahn’s weaknesses as a leader more evident

13. Will the Los Angeles Experience Reappear in Other U.S. Cities? • No, at least in the short term • Multiracial political coalitions are hard to form • And, harder to sustain • When multiracial coalitions have formed, blacks have generally led • Latino and Asian Americans most underrepresented in electorate • 2001, 2003, 2005—New York and Houston • Latino candidates defeated despite Latino majorities/pluralities in city population • Latino candidates defeated by undermining their White support

14. Villaraigosa Election Offers a Possible New Model • Los Angeles shares political characteristics with other major urban areas • Latino plurality, with Latino electorate making up a smaller share of voters than does Latino population of total population • Rich pool of Latino leaders at the council/school board level • Tensions – arguably fears – of Latino empowerment in African American communities • White leaders who are skilled at dividing minority communities • Divisions within Latino elites – concerns about raising prominence of others

15. Los Angeles's “Urban” Politics also Regional • Los Angeles (city) a small part of Los Angeles (region) • LA City – 3,694,834 • LA County – 9,519,338 • Five county region – 16,373,645 • Minority concentrations in • Unincorporated Los Angeles County • Los Angeles county cities • Orange County • Increasingly, San Bernardino and Riverside Counties

16. LA Regional Cities

17. Each Area Has Different Form of Minority Politics • Unincorporated areas • Most government contracted; little local control • Few institutions to incorporate • Small Los Angeles County cities • Small city politics, tipping to Latino control • Generally, few institutions of incorporation • Orange County • North county cities, tension between immigrant and native minorities • Riverside and San Bernardino Counties • Republican inroads among Latinos • Unlikely that there will be Latino plurality areas

18. All are “Urban” Politics –Meaning of Urban Changed • In this Los Angeles, is somewhat unique • Changes the story, not just of urban politics, but also of • Resources for immigrant adaptation • Inter-group cooperation (Tuesday’s topic) • Unlikely that there will be a single path for minority politics in Los Angeles

19. For Next Time • How did race and gender interact to shape voting patterns in California’s 2003 recall race?