2019 Elections Preview

1. 2019 Elections Preview Briefing: Bank of America Merrill Lynch David Ansara – 24 April 2019

2. 1. Overview

3. 1. Overview • Disillusionment with democracy leads to growing apathy • South African youth is the largest proportion of the population, but has the lowest turnout rate • Impatience with promises made (and broken) by the ANC government • Inconsistencies in registration data (e.g. 109% of the oldest cohort registered) a potential early warning sign for “dirty tricks” if political contests heat up in future. Elections Preview

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6. 2. National Government

7. 2. National Government • The ANC became the majority party in 1994 and maintains this status, though support has declined steadily over the years • The DA is gaining popularity, as is the EFF (ANC splinter party formed in 2013). • Smaller parties have drastically increased in number; there are 27 new parties contesting this election Elections Preview

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11. * 2019 data drawn from CRA projections, based on a voter turnout scenario of 70.9% (registered voters), February 2019. Elections Preview

12. 3. Provincial Government

13. 3. Provincial Government • The ANC is likely to lose its >50% majority in Gauteng, winning a smaller plurality of seats • The DA is likely to lose its >60% majority in the Western Cape, winning a smaller majority of seats • Smaller parties are gaining traction in the provincial legislatures of Gauteng and Western Cape, which increases the role of coalition politics. • ANC-DA, ANC-EFF and DA-EFF coalitions are all viable but highly unstable modus vivendi with precedents for the latter two coalition groupings set in major metropolitans (Vide Athol Trollip in Nelson Mandela Bay). Elections Preview

14. * 2019 data drawn from CRA projections, based on a voter turnout scenario of 70.9% (registered voters), February 2019. Elections Preview

15. 4. Voting Trends

16. 4. Voting Trends • The dominant trend is an increase in non-voters since 1994. In part, this must be explained by the extraordinary nature of the 1994 election, but the magnitude (14% in 1994 to 40% in 2016) suggests deeper factors. • Non-voters declined in 2009 due to a marked shift in favour of populism within the ANC under its new leader, Jacob Zuma, and new urgency in opposition. • The ANC is steadily losing its national majority • The EFF has outcompeted the DA among black voters though it has the least racially diverse support base among the top three parties. Elections Preview

17. * CRA calculations based on the number of eligible voters who chose not to vote. The total votes cast is divided by total eligible voters. This is then subdivided according to political party below the total. Elections Preview

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20. 5. Public Opinion and Action

21. 5. Public Opinion and Action • The majority of South Africans think the country is going in the wrong direction. • Within at least 17 sub-categories of South Africans more think the country is going in the wrong direction than the right direction including all black South Africans, all ANC voters, and all minority voters. • NB: none of the top three parties have open primaries, nor is there an electoral college, so most voters lack a direct means to shape the parties they want to be represented by. • Incidents of public violence and protest are high and rising, a strong indicator of disillusionment with the current dispensation. • Popular and expert perceptions of corruption are aligned in indicating dramatically eroding protection of public funds. (May be worth noting that protections against private property are eroding too). Elections Preview

22. a Includes service delivery protests, industrial action, and conflict between factions within political parties. The SAPS also refers to public violence as incidents of unrest. b The SAPS published revised figures from 2011/12 onwards. This might explain the repetition of figures between 2012 and 2013. Requests for an explanation were not answered at the time of publishing. Elections Preview

23. Source: Presidency, Development Indicators 2012, August 2012, p95; Transparency International, www.transparency.org. a The Corruption Perceptions Index is a project by a Berlin-based organisation, Transparency International. The index reflects perceptions of corruption among resident and non-resident business people and analysts. The index used a maximum of 13 surveys for some countries in 2011 and 12 in 2001. The minimum number of surveys required for a country to be included in the index is three. b Countries are ranked from 0 to 100 where 100 means highly clean and 0 means highly corrupt. Owing to the increase in the number of countries surveyed over the years, South Africa has a lower ranking, not because of a deteriorating score, but because of the inclusion of countries with a better score or the improved scores of existing countries. In some instances, the country went down the rankings even though their score had increased, such as between 2005 and 2006. Elections Preview

24. Source: Ipsos South Africa, www.ipsos.co.za, accessed 23 February 2018 Elections Preview

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26. 6. Key take-aways • Disillusion and alienation from the democratic process is the dominant trend. • The ANC maintains its majority for now, but is losing ground as other smaller parties gain popularity • Voter turnout declines indicate an increasing dissatisfaction with South Africa’s political leadership and its instruments such as democracy • Instances of public unrest, protest and corruption reinforce societal dissatisfaction • If corruption levels decrease and political parties are held to account, it is possible that more South Africans will vote which will allow our democratic proportional representative system to be more effective Fast Facts Briefing – Crisis at Eskom

27. 7. Risk factors • Low voter turnout, especially among young South Africans • Increasingly violent manifestations of societal dissatisfaction with government and its institutions • Radicalisation of political parties in an effort to maintain strongholds or seats in parliament Fast Facts Briefing – Crisis at Eskom

28. We supply reports, WA notes, conference calls, face to face consultations, and formal briefings on all strategic intelligence matters. This briefing was produced by the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA). It is confidential and may not be circulated. For reasons of context the data and ideas in this briefing must be interpreted with a CRA analyst in the room. For more support and analysis and information on our other products and services you can contact: Director - Frans Cronje COO – David Ansara Head of Research – Thuthukani Ndebele Head of Marketing – Sherwin van Blerk www.cra-sa.com 2019 Elections Preview