Enhancing National Accounts Compilation in GCC Countries: Challenges and Recommendations

1. Assessment of National Accounts Compilation in the GCC CountriesGiovanni Savio, Statistics Division, UN-ESCWA High level seminar on the implementation of the System of National Accounts 2008 in the GCC Countries Muscat, 27 May 2010

2. National Accounts Balance of Payment and External Trade Prices Production Statistics – by industrial sector Financial Statistics – including fiscal statistics Money and Capital Market Statistics (Labour market) Main Fields of Economic Statistic

3. System of National Accounts 1993 / 2008 coordinating conceptual framework for all economic statistics; and ensuring consistency of definitions and classifications used in different, but related, fields of economic statistics Concepts and principles set out in international recommendations for other economic statistics harmonized with System of National Accounts Frameworks of Economic Statistics

4. (Based on outcomes of review of practices for NA conducted by the ESCWA, end 2009) Basic definitions & concepts: 1993 SNA quite largely followed or implementation ongoing – but compilation of national accounts constrained by availability of data System officially followed: 3 countries declare 1968 SNA but moving to 1993 SNA, others 1993 SNA Timeliness and Dissemination: All have a release calendar – and release preliminary ANA within 12 months of completion of the accounting period Present Status of National Accounts (1)

5. Classifications: largely homogeneous Staff: Varying from 4 to more than 20 Main impediments to 1993 SNA implementation: Data sources and Coverage (most relevant) Staff Legislative mandate Internal cooperation (less relevant) Present Status of National Accounts (2)

6. Balance of Payment and External trade: BoP: Compiled by the Central bank, mostly following BPM5 External trade: Mostly, the customs data on merchandise trade are compiled by the NSOs, using HS Problem areas: Quantity figures Data gap: Statistics on International Trade in Services Present Status of other Economic Statistics (1)

7. Present Status of other Economic Statistics (2) Price Statistics: CPI: fairly well developed – closely in compliance with ILO standards No other price data collected, except on some selected (wholesale) prices of construction materials and agricultural produce. Almost no PPI Exports & imports: Unit Values

8. Production Statistics – by industrial sector: Agricultural activities: from M/o Agriculture Oil sector: from administrative sources or companies Financial sector: from surveys and CBs General Government: administrative sources Non-agricultural, non-financial private sector: from economic surveys based on list frame Problem areas: Incomplete frame; absence of system of regular updating using administrative sources, lack of business registers Data gap: data on informal / un-registered sector Present Status of other Economic Statistics (3)

9. Incomplete Coverage: Economic activities carried out in establishments not in the list frame are not covered in economic surveys providing production statistics required for NA Constant-price estimates of production-side aggregates are based on CPI, owing to absence of PPI, or on quantity index of output National Accounts - Main Shortcomings (1)

10. Expenditure-side aggregates at constant prices sometimes not compiled Income-side aggregates at constant prices generally not compiled Lack of information on expenditure aggregates (consumption and investment) Quarterly accounts compiled in few countries, very limited set of data released National Accounts – Main Shortcomings (2)

11. Expenditure on oil exploration not included in capital formation(at least two countries) Though large oil reserves and significant exploration activities Main Conceptual Lapses

12. Complete coverage of economic activities in national accounts statistics requires Regular updating of the list frame Coverage of units not included in list of establishments in the economic surveys National Accounts Immediate Needs (1)

13. Reviewing questionnaires of economic surveys for adoption of definitions of production and capital formation, keeping in view (i) 1993 / 2008 SNA and (ii) recommendations of IRIS and IRDTS manuals of UNSD (2008) Adoption of new classifications Rational re-grouping of industry and product classifications suitable for compilation and presentation of NA, particularly Supply-Use Tables National Accounts Immediate Needs (2)

14. Improving constant-price estimates using appropriate deflation procedures and indicators like (a) ‘retail turnover’ index (conducting annual retail trade survey) (b) quantity index/ estimates of output of important products (c) PPI – separately for groups of goods and services and (d) wage-rate index National Accounts Immediate Needs (3)

15. Developing complete sequence of accounts Estimation of capital stock and adoption of international standards Development of short-term indicators for compilation of Quarterly Accounts National Accounts Immediate Needs (5)

16. Thank you