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Survey of Property Professionals 2013Q2 Results: Highlights and Trends

This presentation provides insights into the survey findings of property professionals in Ireland, including price expectations and market activity. It highlights the positive and negative influences on demand and analyzes short-term and long-term price expectations.

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Survey of Property Professionals 2013Q2 Results: Highlights and Trends

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  1. Central Bank of Ireland/Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland: Survey of Property Professionals 2013Q2 Results: Circulated September 2013

  2. PLEASE NOTE: THE RESULTS/FINDINGS OF THE SURVEY OF PROPERTY PROFESSIONALS 2013Q2 ARE PRESENTED WITHIN. THE PURPOSE OF THIS PRESENTATION IS TO PROVIDE INFORMATION TO THOSE WHO PARTICPATED IN THE survey, CENTRAL BANK OF IRELAND STAFF & THE SCSI. we ask that this document not be publicly Quoted or circulated further.

  3. SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS • Price expectations • almost half of respondents expect prices to be higher in a year’s time • significant majority of respondents continue to anticipate price increases over the 3 year horizon • as in previous surveys expectation is that price growth in Dublin will be much stronger than at the national level in the coming year / 3 years • Regional outlook is much more optimistic over 3 year time-frame than a year from now • Market activity • c.60 per cent of respondents indicated that they were busier in 2013Q2 than the previous quarter in terms of sales agreed, enquiries from potential purchasers and sales instructions from vendors • Of the 2013Q2 unit-sales which respondents provided details of, movers accounted for 40% • Market issues • the feeling that there is value to be had at present, improved sentiment towards the market and the economy are cited as positive influences on demand. Credit restrictions, oversupply and uncertainty surrounding the impact of a potential increase in repossessions are seen as the key negatives. • significant numbers of transactions continue to fall through at a late stage in the process, problems with documentation such as title deeds, surveyors or engineers reports or with the management company being listed as a common obstacle

  4. SURVEY 2013Q2 SELECTED RESULTS (PRICE EXPECTATIONS)

  5. SURVEY 2013Q2 vs. SURVEY 2013Q1:CURRENT QUARTER PRICE EXPECTATIONS

  6. SURVEY 2013Q2 vs. SURVEY 2013Q1:+1 QUARTER PRICE EXPECTATIONS

  7. SURVEY 2013Q2 vs. SURVEY 2013Q1:+1 YEAR PRICE EXPECTATIONS

  8. REASONS PROVIDED FOR SHORTER-TERM PRICE EXPECTATIONS • negatives: lack of mortgage finance, economic uncertainty, impact of the budget / further austerity measures, unemployment, oversupply and high emigration in some regions, feeling that outcome to the arrears problem will see an increase in repossessions resulting in further falls  may be exacerbated by widespread repossessions, vendors unrealistic on asking prices • positives: recent signs of tentative increases in price & activity fostering a belief that the bottom of the market has been reached, signs credit conditions improving, while still fragile a feeling that economic sentiment has risen, progress in terms of reducing unemployment lack of supply in certain areas pushing prices up and a number of respondents noted the particular pick-up in Dublin

  9. SURVEY 2013Q2 vs. SURVEY 2013Q1:+3 YEARS PRICE EXPECTATIONS

  10. REASONS UNDERLYING LONGER-TERM PRICE EXPECTATIONS • negatives: further shrinkage of the banking sector mean credit will become more difficult to obtain, inadequate solution to the issues of indebtedness and unemployment will re-enforce the fear to spend, poor handling of the arrears crisis could lead to mass re-possessions and more units for sale in over-supplied areas, impact of emigration • positives: resolution to the problems of the banking sector will see a more widespread access to credit, favourable demographics and the existence of a large pent-up demand following years of housing market inactivity, economic recovery underway, renters moving to purchase homes, a lack of supply in some areas will place upward pressure on prices, in certain regions promised infrastructure projects will be delivered upon increasing demand for houses there

  11. +1 YEAR (LHS) & +3 YEARS (RHS) PRICE EXPECTATIONS (SURVEY 2013Q2): NATIONAL VS. DUBLIN

  12. +1 YEAR (LHS) & +3 YEARS (RHS) PRICE EXPECTATIONS (SURVEY 2013Q2):REGIONAL

  13. SURVEY 2013Q2 SELECTED RESULTS (MARKET ACTIVITY)

  14. SURVEY 2013Q2: MARKET ACTIVITY

  15. SURVEY 2013Q2: MARKET ISSUES -SALES PRICES & PURCHASE METHOD

  16. SURVEY 2013Q2: MARKET ISSUES -FAILED TRANSACTIONS & INFLUENCES ON MARKET DEMAND

  17. IF YOU HAVE ANY COMMENTS/QUERIES ON THESE RESULTS, OR IF YOU ARE NOT INVOLVED IN THE SURVEY AT PRESENT AND YOU WOULD LIKE TO BE IN THE FUTURE - PLEASE CONTACT: GERARD KENNEDY gkennedy@centralbank.ie

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