“Living on Earth is expensive, but it does include a free trip around the sun” Anonymous

1. “Living on Earth is expensive, but it does include a free trip around the sun” Anonymous

2. U6220: Environmental Chemistryand ToxicologyThursday, June 02 2002 Thursday, June 02 2005 “Reality Provides us with facts so romantic that imagination itself could add nothing else” Jules Verne.

3. Who Am I? Dr. Patrick Louchouarn How I got here, etc.... • Tecnológico de Monterrey (HS), Mexico City • McGill University – B.Sc., Montréal (Canada) • Université du Québec à Montréal, M.Sc. & Ph.D. • University of Texas at Austin (MSI), Post-Doc (1998-1999) • Texas A&M Univ - Corpus Christi (1999-2002) • Columbia (Biosphere) (2002-present)

4. “The (real) Life Aquatic”

5. The story of rivers: from land to the sea

6. “Black Rain” Why Study Black Carbon? Atmospheric chemistry and health impact (PAHs)  Radiatively important aerosols (direct and indirect impacts)  “Short-circuit” in the carbon cycle?

7. Summer Schedule/Syllabus http://www.columbia.edu/itc/sipa/envp/louchouarn/courses/

8. And nowAny Questions?

9. “Double standards in public policy? Acknowledging the burden on science in decision-making” Patrick Louchouarn Columbia University • “I’ll be so brief, I am already finished” • Dali

10. Outline • Introduction • Addressing the “Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences” • On common grounds • Defining and acknowledging (un)certainty in assessing/managing environmental change: a discursive approach • Defining risks and the role of experts in public (environmental) policy • Concluding Remarks • The role of education (of scientists and policymakers)

11. Humanity’s Top Ten Problems for next 50 years Prof. Richard Smalley, 1996 Nobel Laureate (Chemistry) UN’s Millenium Development Goals Task Force 1 on Poverty and Economic Development TF 2 on Hunger TF 3 on Education and Gender Equality TF 4 on Child Health and Maternal Health TF 5 on Major Diseases (HIV/AIDS, Malaria, TB) TF 6 on Environmental Sustainability TF 7 on Water and Sanitation TF 8 on Improving the Lives of Slum Dwellers TF 9 on Open, Rule-Based Trading Systems TF 10 on Science, Technology and Innovation • Energy • Water • Food • Environment • Poverty • Terrorism&War • Disease • Education • Democracy • Population

12. National Academy of Science “Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences” (2001) • Biogeochemical Cycles (human perturbations) • Biological Diversity (ecological & functional importance) • Climate Variability (increase precision and predictive capacity) • Hydrological Forecasting (changes in resources and demands) • Infectious Diseases and the Environment (ecological & evolutionary aspects of infectious diseases) • Institutions and Resource Use (role of institutions in management/fate of natural resources) • Land-Use Dynamics (anthropogenic impacts of land-use change/dynamics) • Reinventing the Use of Materials (green chemistry-nanotechnology, recycling)

13. National Academy of Science “Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences” (2001) 6. Institutions and Resource Use • Systematic understanding of the role of institutions in shaping the use of natural resources (markets, legal and regulatory structures at regional to international levels, collaborative resource governance, heterogeneous stakeholders and management structures) • Elucidate internal and external conditions that affect institutions’ capacity for adaptive change! NAS accepts (unconsciously?) the role of science in shaping policy Departure from common axiology and culture of science developed since 19th Century and reinforced in mid-20th Century

14. Science: The Endless Frontier (1945)(Vannevar Bush - Director of the Office of Scientific Research and Development) "New frontiers of the mind are before us, and if they are pioneered with the same vision, boldness, and drive with which we have waged this war we can create a fuller and more fruitful employment and a fuller and more fruitful life." Franklin D. Roosevelt - November 17, 1944 "Without scientific progress no amount of achievement in other directions can insure our health, prosperity, and security as a nation in the modern world." V. Bush- 1945 Isolation of basic Science and the quest for knowledge • Implies a “purity” of the scientific process (independent from the political process) • Provides a service to society by “fueling” its progress (war against disease, National security, public welfare)  indirectly linked to the political process

15. Re-Thinking Science(Helga Nowotny - Chairwoman of the EC’s European Research Advisory Board) Europe: “The old paradigm of scientific discovery “characterized by the hegemony of disciplinary science,with its strong sense of an internal hierarchy between the disciplines and driven by the autonomy of scientists and their host institutions, the universities” is being superseded (but not replaced) by a new paradigm of knowledge production “socially distributed, application-oriented, trans-disciplinary and subject to multiple accountabilities”. USA: NRC’s report on scientific advisory committee (2004): “Political considerations should not play a role in the process of deciding whom to appoint to policy panels”  “But in fact politics is unavoidable in the empaneling process. The real question is whether we want to openly confront this reality or allow it to play out in the proverbial backrooms of political decision making”. (R. Pielke Jr. 2005)

16. Re-Thinking Science’s “neutrality”:The status of experts • The “neutrality” of science in societal (and political) debates is still viewed as • ultimate quality of this (social) knowledge-production activity • a warranty for reliability and legitimacy of this knowledge “As scientists debate the various sides of politicized issues, their involvement undermines the assumptions that have given experts their power and the neutral arbiter of truth” (S. Bocking, “Nature’s Experts: Science, Politics, and the Environment” Rutgers Univ. Press, 2004) “By participating in political debates as advocates for (special) interests, scientitst are reducing their claim to authority”. (R. Pielke Jr. “A part but apart from politics”, Nature 2005)

17. Environmental sciences:a value-laden and mediatized field

18. Scientists as Activists and the Legitimacy of Science “The Administration and the Scientist” Jim Hansen (2005): I have been told by a high government official that I should not talk about “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with climate, The opinions and interpretations that I express today are my personal views. I am a government employee, but I am on leave today, I travel here at my expense, and I speak as a private citizen […]. I hope to convince you that I am knowledgeable about climate change and that the information I provide warrants your consideration, but the views that I present have no official sanction. “The Corporation and the Scientist” Hydro-Quebec (2002): “For boreal reservoirs, IRN quotes mainly Eric Duchemin who is an environmental activist of the Union Québécoise pour la Conservation de la Nature, a Canadian environmental group that has opposed any hydro project in the last 15 years”

19. Environmental science: Decision making in the face of (un)certainty The acceptance of a valid definition (and role) of uncertainty in science is not as critical as clearing the confusion that arises when science “argues with itself”. When people hold a strong idea that science is somewhat certain and predictable, then a strong puzzlement arises when scientists have more than one answer for an issue and disagree among themselves.

20. The power (and weight) of metaphors The case of the “Hockey Stick” When the strongest symbolism becomes a confusing notion “It seems that metaphors in science carry a greater burden then in metaphors of literature or history”. Alan Lightman (2004 - A sense of the mysterious: Science and the human spirit) A. Moberg et al. (2005) Nature

21. Hansen, J. 2004 (2004) Defusing the global warming time bomb, Scientific American, 290, 68-77. Climate of (un)certainty… Critics say we shouldn’t’ act on the Kyoto protocol or even curb GHG emissions before we obtain confirmation of climate change from “sound science” “Soundness” of science is defined in terms of perceived (un)certainty 1)Forcings

22. What about science (un)certainty? Taking the forcings at face value

23. FCCC vs. IPCC The politicization of (un)certainty • The FCCC definition of climate change requires detection and attribution of climate change leading to "dangerous interference” • There is NO CONSENSUS on the definition of Climate change, let alone on what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference” with the climate system (R. Pielke Jr. (2004). What is climate change? Issues in Science & Technology. Jul. 9). • Minimizes the need for decarbonization of the energy system and for the reduction of human and environmental vulnerability to climate • FCCC disregards adaptive measures and will only consider mitigation under strong scientific consensus. But there IS scientific consensus!

24. The politicization of (un)certainty • IPCC notes that under its definition of climate change, effective action requires "decisionmaking under uncertainty” • But much of the uncertainty in climate change scenarios is related to non-science issues (demographics, economy, energy production, innovative technology diffusion) • “Decisionmaking under uncertainty” is a challenge familiar to decisionmakers and research communities in social sciences

25. “Making prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” Casey Stengel • Social Security: • Social Security is projected to start paying out more in benefits than it collects in taxes in 2018 • Can pay full promised benefits only until 2042 (solvent until 2052) • How can solvency be restored to Social Security? • massive tax increases • massive benefit cuts • Investment of payroll taxes in privatized accounts

26. Process of Public Environmental Policy(S. Cohen, 2001) • Environmental policy  Closely connected to issues of economical development and income (wealth) distribution • Environmental policy thus appears as a set of individual and collective patterns of choices about resource deployment and management  Social learning • The assignment and distribution of benefits and costs creates political conflicts that both impede and distort social learning  Filters on information flow

27. Process of Public Environmental Policy Process of environmental policy is characterized by disjointed-incremental steps and heterogeneous structures  Large number of separated centers Eventually, decisions happen • Clean Water and Clean Air Acts, Superfund Program. • However, this process becomes highly complex when it deals with deep uncertainty with respect to the behavior of non-linear systems (i.e. ecosystems, climate, etc)

28. Process of Public Environmental Policy • Decision models under deep uncertainty DO exist: • Scenario-Based Planning (discursive process) • Help groups of individuals reach consensus on strategies even when members cannot agree on the most likely future (Does not systematically correct for fallacies in human reasoning) • Computer Assisted Reasoning (inductive process)  Determination of robust regions (domains of choices) • Market-based (diffusion of innovative technology) Lempert R.J. (2002) and Robalino D.A. and Lempert R.J. (2000)

29. Decision in the face of (un)certaintyPrecautionary Principle • Its about minimizing potential deleterious impacts in face of incomplete information (managing risk) • Risk avoiders try to minimize the potential for “misfortunes of the second kind” (“accept something they should have rejected” - Type II errors ) • By doing so, they increase the potential for “misfortunes of the first kind” (“reject something they should have accepted” - Type I errors ) Ho H1

30. Precaution vs. Resilience • Europe has moved strongly in favor of Precautionary Principle (Climate Change, GMOs) • U.S. seems more inclined towards Resilience Principle (c.f. Wildavski): building capacity (adaptations) • To give the critics of PP some credit, this principle is rather loose on the definition of science (un)certainty • However, we fail to recognize that the discussion of (un)certainty is one of statistical likelihood of any event occurring

31. Risk Assessment/Management • And, not all risks are the same! “when we have two options for actions where the same unwelcome event will occur with different probability, the conclusion for a decision under uncertainty is clear: each rationally thinking human being would choose the option for action with the lower probability of occurrence” (Klinke A. and Renn O. 2001)

32. Risk Assessment/Management • Not all risks are the same! Damocles Typical of technological risk (extent of damage inversely proportional to probability of occurrence): High damage - Low probability of occurrence High persistency!  Nuclear disaster, dam failure, chemical accident

33. Risk Assessment/Management • Not all risks are the same! Pythia Damocles Large uncertainty in probability of occurrence, extent and cause of damage High persistency!  Human intervention in ecosystems (dams, artificial groundwater recharge)  GHG and CFC releases

34. Risk Assessment/Management Cassandra • Not all risks are the same! Pythia Damocles Paradox: Probability of occurrence is known as well as extent of damage (confidence level is low) Long latency which generates little mobilization  Anthropogenic climate change  Loss of biodiversity

35. Risk Assessment/Management • Not all risks are the same! • Neither is their management. (Klinke A. and Renn O. 2001)

36. Baromètre IRSN 2004 Risk perception in France Social issues amount > 50% Environmental concerns ~13%

37. Baromètre IRSN 2004 Perception of role and acceptance of experts

38. Of a paradigm of Science EducationCongressman Vernon J. Ehlers (2001)Unlocking Our Future: Towards a New National Science Policy “US science policy is outdated; the American public does not understand science or its practice; US scientists are not sufficiently engaged in the political process” • The majority of jobs in the 21st Century will depend on scientific and technical expertise. • Science curricula should be inquiry-based and involve hands-on (minds-on) experimentation so “children” can experience the thrill of learning science.

39. Science (Environmental) EducationOf Scaffolding and Authentic Inquiry • Mental models (metaphors) • Physical models • Computer simulations/Mathematical models • Visualization of complex real data sets

40. Humanity’s Top Ten Problems for next 50 years Prof. Richard Smalley, 1996 Nobel Prize Laureate (Chemistry) • Energy • Water • Food • Environment • Poverty • Terrorism & War • Disease • Education • Democracy • Population Today the world runs on ~14 terawatts of power, (220 106 barrels of oil/day) 2050: we’ll need 28 terawatts (>440 106 barrels of oil/day)

41. The Sputnik Generation Where’s the Sputnik generation of the 21st Century? Social/political/ethical (economical) cause for intellectual mobilization

42. For Science, Against Scientism Scientism: The claim that science is disinterested and extra-social, that its truth claims are self-sustaining without reference to philosophical assertions, and that science represents the only legitimate mode of knowledge” (I. Wallerstein, 2004) Our (apparent) social insistence to preserve the idea of scientism as the modus operandi of science is paradoxically what delegitimizes science: • Supports claims from (nihilistic) relativists that there exists no universal truth and that all knowledge assertions are subjective • More importantly, generates the perception that any social implication on the part of scientists falsifies the scientific process  removes it from its purity and therefore undermines its reliability/credibility

43. Concluding Remarks • Knowledge production: Participatory process “Reliable knowledge can become socially robust only if society perceives the process of knowledge production to be participative. This, in turn, depends upon a reciprocity in which the public understands how science works, but, equally, science understands how the public works”Nowotny et al. (2003) “Mode 2 revisited: the New production of Knowledge”, Minerva. • Regulatory science can work only within the framework of an ethically defensible and socially acceptable distribution of burdens of proof (H. van den Belt and B. Gremmen (2002) Between precautionary principle and “sound science”: Distributing the burdens of proof. Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Ethics. 15: 103-122).

44. Thank you! “Nothing is more dangerous than an idea, when it’s the only one you have” Alain (Emile Chartier) “You are educated when you have the ability to listen to almost anything without losing your temper or self-confidence” Robert Frost