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This report provides an overview of recent rainfall patterns and current conditions of the Asian-Australian Monsoon System. It also includes a prediction update and climatology information.
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The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP July 14, 2014 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml
Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology
Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, the rainfall over central/northern India, southeast Asian countries, Korea, Japan, and eastern Australia have been below normal. Only few pockets of above normal rainfall are noted near Bangladesh, southeastern China, and in the maritime Indonesian islands.
Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, rainfall continues to be much below normal over much of India except in the northeast, Nepal and Burma. The advance of southwest monsoon into north central and northwestern India has been considerably delayed this summer monsoon season. According to the India Met. Dept, (IMD), for about 45 days of the monsoon season so far since the beginning of June, monsoon rainfall is 41% below long term mean. It will be extremely difficult to compensate for this amount of rainfall deficit in the remainder of the monsoon season.
Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, the southwest monsoon rainfall continues to be below normal over much of central and northern India, as well as over northeastern China and Korea.
Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.
Atmospheric Circulation Due to technical issues, this map is one day behind than normal. Nevertheless the anomalous low level ridge centered over India is consistent with the below normal rainfall. By the same argument, the anomalous trough over the northern Bay of Bengal accounts for more rainfall in the region.
NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Weak 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2
Summary For the past 90 days, the rainfall over central/northern India, southeast Asian countries, Korea, Japan, and eastern Australia have been below normal. Only few pockets of above normal rainfall are noted near Bangladesh, southeastern China, and in the maritime Indonesian islands. For the past 30 days, rainfall continues to be much below normal over much of India except in the northeast, Nepal and Burma. The advance of southwest monsoon into north central and northwestern India has been considerably delayed this summer monsoon season. According to the India Met. Dept, (IMD), for about 45 days of the monsoon season so far since the beginning of June, monsoon rainfall is 41% below long term mean. It will be extremely difficult to compensate for this amount of rainfall deficit in the remainder of the monsoon season. In this past week, the southwest monsoon rainfall continues to be below normal over much of central and northern India, as well as over northeastern China and Korea. For the next couple of weeks, the NCEP GFS model is showing some signs of monsoon rainfall in central and northern India, bringing the much needed relief there.
