Arctic Freshwater Integration Study (FWI): Update on Results, Activities, Plans

1. NSF-ARCSSFreshwater Integration study (FWI)Update on Results, Activities, Plansin the FWI Sunset Phase Charles Vörösmarty, Larry Hinzman, Jonathan Pundsack SEARCH SSC Briefing Washington, DC 6 November 2009 Sponsored by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs Convened by the Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office

2. Having a “Unifying Concept” Helped The Hydrologic Cycle Links Every Major Component of the Arctic System • Physics • Biology • Biogeochemistry • Human-induced change • Natural variability • Human vulnerability .… and central to the analysis of:

3. The Science Focal Points • Q1: Is the Arctic FW Cycle Intensifying? • Q2: If So, Why? • Q3: What Are the Implications on the Earth system and humans? Broad balance of: (a) time/space scales; (b) disciplines; (c) tools/approaches

4. FWI PROGRESS THROUGH 2009 • 5-year official active timeframe, $30M, w/ 22-funded FWI Projects (begun 2002) • >100 peer-reviewed publications • >100 PI and co-I presentations at prominent National and Int’l forums • > 24 Graduate and Undergraduate FWI Students • Outreach efforts: Press conferences, media interviews (CNN, NY Times / Discovery Channel / Canadian Broadcasting Co., NPR)

5. Synthesis Focal Points:The Working Groups • Synthetic questions >> any one project or investigator • Projects provided fundamental information • United models and observations and literature reviews • Well-bounded exercises: Sunrise-development-sunset • Facilitation key: Synthesis just didn’t “happen”

6. FWI “Budgeteers” Working Group 2002: Baseline stocks & fluxes of fresh water largely educated guesswork • Major uncertainties • Budget “unbalanced / unclosed” • NATO ASI: FW Budget of the Arctic Ocean

7. • Budget exercise motivated an unprecedented synthesis of literature, observation, and model-based knowledge • Budget closes w/in error bounds of observations • Several sub-domains successfully quantified • Time variations recognized as next big challenge 2006: Baseline stocks & fluxes of fresh water largely quantified Serreze et al. 2006, JGR-Oceans

8. Major findings --many of the feedbacks are positive --many benefit productivity of ecosystems & human well- being Feedbacks & implications on major subsystems CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTION “CAWG” Working Group • Heuristic modeling approach to identify the major actors & their links • --agents of  • --recipients of  • --feedbacks • defined by • closed loops Francis et al., JGR-Biogeosciences (in press)

9. Lessons from the US National Science Foundation FreshWater Integration (FWI) Study • Change continues to be a hallmark of the Arctic hydrologic system • Many changes coincident with accelerated hydrologic cycle • Manifested at numerous scales, from coordinated hemispheric change to diversified local-scale change • Tools (models and data sets) emerging rapidly for analyzing behavior of the fully linked water system • Limits arise from incomplete data, model components, and approaches for linking these http://arcticchamp.sr.unh.edu/

10. Intensification of the Hydrologic Cycle CHANGES AND ATTRIBUTION “Intensifiers” Working Group Data synthesis and modeling --not quite as easy as it may seem --long-term coherent time series are more than ever critical Rawlins et al., Journal of Climate (in review.)

11. Synthesizing International Understanding of Changes in the Arctic Hydrological System Workshop Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stockholm, Sweden 30 September – 2 October 2009 An FWI Capstone Sponsored by the National Science Foundation Office of Polar Programs through the Arctic-CHAMP Science Management Office. Co-sponsored by the International Arctic Research Center (IARC) / University of Alaska Fairbanks, and the International Study of Arctic Change (Sweden/SPRS).

12. Workshop Participants • ~30 Participants, representing 8 countries: • Canada, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Iceland, Sweden, Russia, USA • Diverse technical backgrounds and areas of expertise: • Atmospheric sciences, ice sheets and glaciers, socio-economics, human systems, oceanography and sea ice, terrestrial hydrology and permafrost, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, biology, climatology • National hydrological and meteorological agencies, international research institutes, universities, national labs and agencies • 3 days of plenary “Vision talks” and discussion, breakouts, organizing team post-meeting

13. Basic Charge: To Identify New Opportunities for Arctic System Synthesis • Overarching Question: Do cumulative effects of changes over space and time lead to new equilibrium states? …adopt notions from ARCSS synthesis and Arctic Synthesis Collaboratory planning: • H2O, Energy, Carbon as “currencies” & explore linkages • Bioegeophysical andhuman dimensions • Rich set of CI and data issues, policy-relevance, training

14. Key Findings: A New Set of Questions Q1. What and where are the controls on abrupt change and can we identify areas that are particularly important and or sensitive to change? (hot spots – edges, throttle points) Q2. When and over what time scales will abrupt/step changes occur? (hot moments) Q3. What role can [human] / do [natural] component adaptations play in establishing new and sustainable system states? Q4. Arctic to global connectivity – how will step and other changes in the Arctic play out/impact/feedback to the Global System?

15. Next steps • Produce strategic document on gaps/opportunities for new research and shorter “communique” (e.g. in AGU-Eos) • Organizing team to meet in Victoria (BC), 10th-11th January to begin formal drafting process • Publication target: mid-2010